42.49 and ATSG

Discussion in 'UPS Discussions' started by airbusfxr, Jan 30, 2009.

  1. airbusfxr

    airbusfxr New Member

    UPS closed at 42.49, how low can it go? Economy, along with bad calls from ATL, will cause more investors (not cat fat mgrs) to dump the brown turd. Aircraft mechanics are the first to "hit the streets" but we are already understaffed and the FAA will ask questions. Pilots, drivers, p-t sups, porters, sorters and admins will hit the streets. When will sups, center mgrs, div managers, GRADE 20 (fat cat 200%ers) continue to manage, and I use that term loosely, a smaller work force? Less workers means less people to keep up with them. I see UPS at the mid 30's by summertime and with the earnings report coming up the books will be opened for all to see. We are at a point where districts are being combined and believe me the "new districts" will have less desks, chairs, and less offices so that means people will be out the door. Last Sunday CBS aired the DHL clip and it was hard to watch. When will CBS come to Louisville? When will CBS come to Atlanta? Yes it will be hard to watch.
     
  2. UPSNewbie

    UPSNewbie New Member

    UPS isn't punching out like DHL. It would be a little hard to compare. No offense to the ones laid off.
     
  3. HEFFERNAN

    HEFFERNAN Huge Member

    Gobble up the stock while you have the chance. I think UPS stock is a steal at that price and when it goes back to where it was 4-5 years ago, you'd basically double your money.

    UPS is better off than most corporations because we have liquid assets. Nothing is buried in credit, there's no product taking up space in the warehouse, and we are sitting on money. We all give UPS a hard time as employees for being tight, but what better company would you want to work for.

    The economy is flat. Nothing we can do about it. Our product is service, and with tight pockets come less delivery. Our stock reflects this (economy), not that we are in poor shape. We will be on top of the hill again.
     
  4. UPSNewbie

    UPSNewbie New Member

    I don't understand why people would panic and bail, losing half of their investment for UPS, for the exact reason of no products to be sat on.
     
  5. Re-Raise

    Re-Raise Well-Known Member

    I agree completely. Why are investors so reluctant to buy when a quality company like UPS has shares "on sale' but they will buy when the shares are at record highs?

    We will survive this recession and the people with foresight enough and the balls to buy at these prices will be rewarded.

    I 'll bet Warren Buffett is buying. UPS is a cash generating machine that will keep churning out PROFITS well into the future. There aren't many companies using that word PROFIT right now.
     
  6. drewed

    drewed Shankman

    the earnings report out next week will tell us a lot.
     
  7. Re-Raise

    Re-Raise Well-Known Member

    I am not investing in UPS because of the last quarter results from 2008. I am an investor because I like what the company has done over the previous 100 years and believe we are positioned well for the next 20 or so years I plan to hold my shares.

    Again it goes back to instant gratification. I don't need my shares to go up next week, but I bet down the road we will be fine.
     
  8. UPSNewbie

    UPSNewbie New Member

    Like I said in my previous post, I agree it doesn't make sense. Buy high, sell low seems to be the flavor.
     
  9. bluehdmc

    bluehdmc Well-Known Member

    1 rule about the stock market, stocks go up-stocks go down. A company like UPS is well run, (although sometimes we may disagree with that here). It's well capitalized, has been around a long time and right now is selling for a bargain price. Brokers would call this market "a buying opportunity". Those who are selling or saying they'll wait to see what happens will regret it when the market turns around.

    No chicken little the sky is not falling.
     
  10. brownie68

    brownie68 New Member

    Would you get off a moving rollercoaster ? No ! Then why would you want to sell your stock and get hurt? Stay on the rollercoaster til it stops ! We can double our money if we stay on and enjoy the ride .
     
  11. sweetpea

    sweetpea New Member

    I agree with airbusfxr, who will they manage. Our consolidation will be getting rid of alot of admins and they seem to find work for the managers or just move them to another location. what about the $300.00 lunches (i know i signed the receipts) what about the MIP checks at the end of the year-dump the lunches dump the bonues keep the admins the part timers-will their little checks really help-why don't you see UPS on the news for layoffs-thnik it's about time-then see where the stock goes
     
  12. feederdriver06

    feederdriver06 former monkey slave

    I dumped my shares at exactly 78.003 per share on 08/07/07 It was the best thing I coulda did and I'm sure alot of people now wish they did the same. I would agree that you could start buying at these levels or wait because I would bet on it going lower. But I would only buy if you have a long time horizon to sit on your investment. I will take many moons to get back to being above 70.00 per share.
     
  13. beentheredonethat

    beentheredonethat Well-Known Member


    Airbuxfxr, First off, the mechanics aren't the first one to hit the streets. Maybe it's the first time that there has been a layoff with air mechanics. But layoffs and cutbacks is nothing new at UPS. Usually it's during a short time after peak. But with this economy, people are shipping less. Also, those that do ship, are moving from Air to Ground. So if there are less air pkgs being shipped, the need for planes are reduced, therefore the need for air mechanics are reduced. I wish the economy was better, but so long as it's down, isn't it prudent to reduce spending as our revenue decreases? With reducing districts, UPS has been doing this for years. This means a reduction in the need of Dist Mgrs (grade 22). Also in many districts over the years, we've seriously reduced the number of mgr (16) jobs, div mgr jobs (18). One district in the NER went down from 8 pkg div mgrs to 3 pkg div mgrs covering the same geographic territory. Similarly during that time there was a similar (but not as drastic) cut of pkg ctr mgrs. I realize people complain about decisions being made, but at the same time, if you look at the economy, how many companies employ a union workforce and still make a profit. List them out, I don't think you'll find a stronger company, with a history of UPS out there.
     
  14. kingOFchester

    kingOFchester Well-Known Member

    Oh my my my my my...
    O
    ne topic that surley will get a lot of opinions. As the old saying goes about a body part that we all have........we all have one and they usually stink.
    So, let me add my smelly opinion.

    First, most day traders loose money.
    2nd, trying to read stocks, charts and the like will also drive you crazy.
    3rd, A good stock will increase in value by 10% a year. To expect that this will double in a few years is probably not likely.

    The market is in a downward spiral. Where is the bottom? No one knows. I think many many people will be in for a real surprise when they realize that the anointed one (Obama) will not be the answer. Certainly not with his stimulus plan (AKA government pork stimulus).

    What we are experiencing is more then a correction. But, when the economy does come around, the market will not go back to where it was for a long long time.

    People sell stock even when it is low, because they predict it will go even lower. I do not think UPS will go out, but it would not surprise me to see it fall even lower as far as stock price. It would be unwise to by any stock right now based on what the stock has sold for historically.
    How does that smell??
     
  15. FAVREFAN

    FAVREFAN Member

    Right on.
     
  16. moreluck

    moreluck golden ticket member

    You sold at &78.03.................did you re-invest into something else? Do you still have your $78??
     
  17. feederdriver06

    feederdriver06 former monkey slave

    No ....I put it into a CD with ING for a year and was getting just under 5% on the money. Now its back in my ING account and I'm waiting before I make my next move.
     
  18. Re-Raise

    Re-Raise Well-Known Member

    Have you ever sold shares of stock because of fear the price will drop, only to see the price rise, causing you to miss the profit? If not , then you are truly a genius.

    My guess is anyone who sold at higher levels probably bought other stock or commodities, or a bigger house, all of which has been no better as an investment than UPS.

    The question of when the price will rise above $70 per share is irrelevent, the real question is will it rise above $42 sometime in the future.
     
  19. FAVREFAN

    FAVREFAN Member

    This stock sucked and underperformed for years before any of this current crisis arose. As I've posted before, we closed day one at $76 7/8. It struggled for years to get back to that, passed it a few times and now this. It went public almost ten years ago now. I wish they would take it back private again.
     
  20. Re-Raise

    Re-Raise Well-Known Member

    Have any other stocks gone down in value in the last ten years...hmmm

    I was one of the few if not the only union employee at my center who bought the shares when they were made available to us before we went public. I still have some shares with a cost basis below $20.

    I agree the initial jump to $78 was a little amazing but I didn't complain at the time. In fact I put in an inground pool and bought a new truck with some of the profit.

    The point is in a tough economic time like this where would you rather have your money than UPS stock at these prices? We will survive this, many companies won't. We are still paid a quarterly dividend.

    If you think the stock sucks or don't have the stomach for investing in this environment, sell, and someone like me will buy.