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A small nugget of what is sure to be many changes in the coming weeks
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<blockquote data-quote="Ricochet1a" data-source="post: 980129" data-attributes="member: 22880"><p>You still aren't grasping the scope of the impeding change. </p><p></p><p>Customers will be shipping their package with "FedEx" - which opco actually does the pickup, linehaul and then delivery will all depend on many factors. <u>FedEx</u> is the brand being sold, NOT Express or Ground or Office. That meeting you had today should've told you this.</p><p></p><p>Say a customer indicates they want overnight service... The software will look at the destination location, then provide the "best solution" for the customer. If the location is within the capability for Ground to get the package delivered on time, then the customer's package will be routed with Ground and the customer charged Ground rates. </p><p></p><p>If the shipment is ready before about noon, and the destination is within the service area of Office Cheetah, then the customer's package will be routed through the Cheetah system and Office will move it - at rates lower than Express standard overnight from what I'm hearing. </p><p></p><p>Third day shipping is going to disappear quite soon from Express - customers will see this change most likely sometime in July or early August from what the talk indicates. </p><p></p><p>If a customer indicates they need 2nd Day delivery - and Ground is capable of providing that service from start to finish, then the shipment will be routed through Ground. And yes, same day pickups for Ground are coming too - they will have the same capability that Express Couriers currently have. How this changes the contracts between FedEx and the contractors remains to be seen. </p><p></p><p>This is why I also believe (though I haven't been able to confirm it with my sources) that unified dispatching will be done sometime soon. A system like this simply cannot operate without unified dispatching, just isn't possible.</p><p></p><p><strong>Only after the other lower cost opcos have been exhausted as possible shipping methods, will Express service be indicated. </strong>Express is no longer the default method - it is the method of last resort if the other two opcos cannot get the piece delivered in time. </p><p></p><p>Within about 2 years or so, the delivery of 2nd Day will be shifted over to Ground to accomplish. This means that the delivery side of Express will become exclusively an overnight affair a couple of years from now. The pickup of volume that will move through the Express line haul network WILL NOT CHANGE (I said this repeatedly over the months/years).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>What makes you think there will be "thousands of FTers" still around a few years from now? Just like all change in Express, they will make the replacement of the FT Courier a gradual process, replacing them with entry level Part-timers who can achieve acceptable levels of productivity with the new technology about to be unveiled.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>The high progression Couriers will be offered early retirement incentives or buyouts. The remainder will be forced into working split shifts (to get minimum pay as a full-timer, there is the added requirement to work all shifts assigned - failure to do so results in forfeiture of minimum pay guarantee). </p><p></p><p>None of the change in personnel staffing will occur "overnight" it will be a gradual process of offering either incentives to leave or requirements for those that remain to work "screwy" hours, which will cause a predictable exodus of those who remain (not many full-timers are going to hang around for too long putting in 50 hour weeks and only getting paid 35 hours while spending an average of 2-3 hours a day on forced unpaid break between their AM delivery cycle and running a PM pickup route).</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>Its ALL full time wage employees who don't have a "future" with Express. That 46 year old Courier is currently used to getting about 50 hours or so on the clock (equivalent to getting paid for 55 hours of work after OT premium). Well, OT is supposed to be disappearing real quick. That is a 27% reduction right off the bat in their gross. </p><p></p><p>Then in a couple of years, they'll be reduced to working minimums. If they run a delivery route that takes them 30 hours a week to accomplish, Express will GLADLY pay them minimums. This Courier is reduced to getting paid for 35 hours a week when they were previously being paid for 55 - a reduction of 36% in their "pre-change" compensation level. </p><p></p><p>How many full-timers can hang around in a job that is only going to pay them just under two-thirds of what they were previously making, with absolutely no prospect of getting anything more and needing to be available for "all assigned shifts" to even get that 35 hours of pay? The exodus will be gradual and assured for FedEx. The early retirement and buyouts will start to look real good for these employees. Combine all of this with increased used of discipline to get rid of employees, there will be a slow but deliberate transformation of the hourly workforce of DGO into a predominantly part-time, low paid workforce. </p><p></p><p>DON'T make the error of assuming that the way things are now are an indicator of how things will be a few years from now - they WILL NOT. </p><p></p><p> </p><p></p><p>You've completely missed the boat on technology. The computer doesn't need to be as good as a seasoned Courier, it just needs to be GOOD ENOUGH. The efficiency gains won't be in individual Courier productivity, it will be in EXPENSE in getting volume delivered. A part-time new hire Courier which can achieve 85% of the efficiency of a seasoned Courier while only being paid 65% as much, is MUCH MORE EFFICIENT. The "computer" will enable this. </p><p></p><p>There isn't the need with computerized routing to have a highly "thinking" Courier. Couriers run the same route over and over and over. Their routine is so predictable, that "goals" can be assigned to accomplishing the task. Given the HIGHLY routine nature of Courier work now, computers can step in and do most of the thinking that a thinking Courier currently does. With the need for a thinking Courier eliminated - Couriers that are paid two-thirds as much and think half as much as current Couriers can be brought in a perform the task and achieve increased COST efficiency. FedEx isn't looking for a "better Courier", they are looking for cheap Couriers which can get the job done. Again, look to Ground and you will find your answer.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ricochet1a, post: 980129, member: 22880"] You still aren't grasping the scope of the impeding change. Customers will be shipping their package with "FedEx" - which opco actually does the pickup, linehaul and then delivery will all depend on many factors. [U]FedEx[/U] is the brand being sold, NOT Express or Ground or Office. That meeting you had today should've told you this. Say a customer indicates they want overnight service... The software will look at the destination location, then provide the "best solution" for the customer. If the location is within the capability for Ground to get the package delivered on time, then the customer's package will be routed with Ground and the customer charged Ground rates. If the shipment is ready before about noon, and the destination is within the service area of Office Cheetah, then the customer's package will be routed through the Cheetah system and Office will move it - at rates lower than Express standard overnight from what I'm hearing. Third day shipping is going to disappear quite soon from Express - customers will see this change most likely sometime in July or early August from what the talk indicates. If a customer indicates they need 2nd Day delivery - and Ground is capable of providing that service from start to finish, then the shipment will be routed through Ground. And yes, same day pickups for Ground are coming too - they will have the same capability that Express Couriers currently have. How this changes the contracts between FedEx and the contractors remains to be seen. This is why I also believe (though I haven't been able to confirm it with my sources) that unified dispatching will be done sometime soon. A system like this simply cannot operate without unified dispatching, just isn't possible. [B]Only after the other lower cost opcos have been exhausted as possible shipping methods, will Express service be indicated. [/B]Express is no longer the default method - it is the method of last resort if the other two opcos cannot get the piece delivered in time. Within about 2 years or so, the delivery of 2nd Day will be shifted over to Ground to accomplish. This means that the delivery side of Express will become exclusively an overnight affair a couple of years from now. The pickup of volume that will move through the Express line haul network WILL NOT CHANGE (I said this repeatedly over the months/years). What makes you think there will be "thousands of FTers" still around a few years from now? Just like all change in Express, they will make the replacement of the FT Courier a gradual process, replacing them with entry level Part-timers who can achieve acceptable levels of productivity with the new technology about to be unveiled. The high progression Couriers will be offered early retirement incentives or buyouts. The remainder will be forced into working split shifts (to get minimum pay as a full-timer, there is the added requirement to work all shifts assigned - failure to do so results in forfeiture of minimum pay guarantee). None of the change in personnel staffing will occur "overnight" it will be a gradual process of offering either incentives to leave or requirements for those that remain to work "screwy" hours, which will cause a predictable exodus of those who remain (not many full-timers are going to hang around for too long putting in 50 hour weeks and only getting paid 35 hours while spending an average of 2-3 hours a day on forced unpaid break between their AM delivery cycle and running a PM pickup route). Its ALL full time wage employees who don't have a "future" with Express. That 46 year old Courier is currently used to getting about 50 hours or so on the clock (equivalent to getting paid for 55 hours of work after OT premium). Well, OT is supposed to be disappearing real quick. That is a 27% reduction right off the bat in their gross. Then in a couple of years, they'll be reduced to working minimums. If they run a delivery route that takes them 30 hours a week to accomplish, Express will GLADLY pay them minimums. This Courier is reduced to getting paid for 35 hours a week when they were previously being paid for 55 - a reduction of 36% in their "pre-change" compensation level. How many full-timers can hang around in a job that is only going to pay them just under two-thirds of what they were previously making, with absolutely no prospect of getting anything more and needing to be available for "all assigned shifts" to even get that 35 hours of pay? The exodus will be gradual and assured for FedEx. The early retirement and buyouts will start to look real good for these employees. Combine all of this with increased used of discipline to get rid of employees, there will be a slow but deliberate transformation of the hourly workforce of DGO into a predominantly part-time, low paid workforce. DON'T make the error of assuming that the way things are now are an indicator of how things will be a few years from now - they WILL NOT. You've completely missed the boat on technology. The computer doesn't need to be as good as a seasoned Courier, it just needs to be GOOD ENOUGH. The efficiency gains won't be in individual Courier productivity, it will be in EXPENSE in getting volume delivered. A part-time new hire Courier which can achieve 85% of the efficiency of a seasoned Courier while only being paid 65% as much, is MUCH MORE EFFICIENT. The "computer" will enable this. There isn't the need with computerized routing to have a highly "thinking" Courier. Couriers run the same route over and over and over. Their routine is so predictable, that "goals" can be assigned to accomplishing the task. Given the HIGHLY routine nature of Courier work now, computers can step in and do most of the thinking that a thinking Courier currently does. With the need for a thinking Courier eliminated - Couriers that are paid two-thirds as much and think half as much as current Couriers can be brought in a perform the task and achieve increased COST efficiency. FedEx isn't looking for a "better Courier", they are looking for cheap Couriers which can get the job done. Again, look to Ground and you will find your answer. [/QUOTE]
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A small nugget of what is sure to be many changes in the coming weeks
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