Buckle up - July & 3rd quarter

Discussion in 'UPS Partners' started by jeepguy63, Jun 30, 2012.

  1. jeepguy63

    jeepguy63 New Member

    For the last several years, the third quarter gets squeezed like no other. Every year it's a different reason/ theory out of corporate.
    Declining savings from compounded improvements in safety, economic challenges domestically, economic challenges internationally, Chinese New Year, Operating day differences YOY, unknown pension accrual impact, declining savings from compounded productivity increases.......All reasons to squeeze more out of the rock in July and the third quarter.
    I expect this coming week to hear from the controller - "The sky is falling."

    Won't hear much about any dissatisfaction with the sales results. Premium products continue to decline, while sure post is coming out of our ears. There is some number they report - like they are 20% effective at getting 40% of their people on plan. It rolls off their tongue so slipperily, I usually miss it - even though I can't even grasp the concept of such a dismal number.

    In any event - Operators, get lots of rest this weekend. Monday begins Hell Quarter.
  2. ajblakejr

    ajblakejr Age quod agis

    jeepguy joined bc in 2006 and has 7 posts to credit...

    thus, I believe, jeepguy only posts when wisdom is needed ...

    thank you jeepguy
  3. soberups

    soberups Pees in the brown Koolaid

    July and 3rd quarter of the last two years have been the time when our Stops Per Car have been jacked up to impossible levels and the over 9.5 grievances start coming in. We have routes going out with hopeless dispatches, we have drivers bringing missed stops back at 10:00 at night, we have guys running out of DOT hours (60 per week) etc etc.

    We call it the Stupid Time, because it is when management stupidity reaches its apex and every single workday becomes nothing more than a excercise in futility as we chase an impossible SPC number right off the edge of a cliff in order to look good on a report. Peak season actually provides some relief because at that point management is allowed to stop being Stupid and start managing the business properly once again.

    I'm glad I will be on vacation for a total of 5 weeks during Stupid Time. Perhaps in the upcoming contract we could bargain with the company to have Stupid Time moved up to the 2nd Quarter when it isnt so hot. Working 60 a week is bad enough, but when its 100 outside productivity really plummets and the company might actually make more money being Stupid in April instead of August.
  4. Monkey Butt

    Monkey Butt You can call me Chappy Staff Member

    And those posts are very good posts that provide an insight and are well developed thoughts.
  5. SignificantOwner

    SignificantOwner A Package Center Manager

    Whatever. Lets face it, operations right now is like a Biggest Loser weigh in. As long as you stay above the yellow line you're fine. If you fall below the yellow line you're still fine if your relationships get you enough votes.
  6. Buck Fifty

    Buck Fifty New Member

    The reason 3rd quarter gets like this, is because the company wants to keep the average routes run down. When someone retires or get fired or

    leaves, the Union tries to step in a get that job replaced. The language in the contact for the number of drivers needed at any given hub is based on

    the average routes that are dispatched thru the 3rd quarter. This has happened because of the influx caused by the numerous 22.3 drivers that were

    hired to fulfill the contract before last (10,000 FT jobs i believe). Its also a great time to make some easy money with the grievances. It is at our hub

    anyway. They can barely manage it with just enough routes, let alone 2 to 3 routes short. Ive lost 3 drivers in the last 2 years and haven't been able

    to replace one yet.
  7. Jackburton

    Jackburton Gone Fish'n

    Pile it on, I got my wheelbarrow ready on Fridays, unless it's triple digits, then I option 3 it. The way I honestly look at it is that management will continue to pound the 11hr dispatches out as long as they are told to. After filing the 9.5s and still getting over dispatched I will get paid on the grievances plus time worked. The only number that we as drivers can continue to get attention is the paid 9.5s. Last year this time enough drivers got fed up and started filing over and over, eventually resulting in 9.5s being paid, and in turn making the 11hr dispatches less profitable on paper.

    I'd wager most of operations would secretly encourage drivers filing 9.5s so they could actually handle the business instead of dealing with services failures as a result of overworking.
  8. ppHATE

    ppHATE New Member

    And so it begins... You called JeepGuy.
  9. texan

    texan Well-Known Member

    Pos rep him..
  10. Buck Fifty

    Buck Fifty New Member

    $750 and counting (just my take) . Looking forward to August !
  11. Returntosender

    Returntosender Well-Known Member

    It's the time of year to bump this post.
  12. moreluck

    moreluck golden ticket member

    Title is confusing.

    You need to buckle up always and all ways !!! (like Ryan says)
  13. UpstateNYUPSer

    UpstateNYUPSer Very proud grandfather.

    Buckle up - July & 3rd quarter

    Do you really need to post on every single thread in every single forum?
  14. CaliforniaPaul

    CaliforniaPaul Active Member

    Re: Buckle up - July & 3rd quarter

    You do.
  15. moreluck

    moreluck golden ticket member

    Re: Buckle up - July & 3rd quarter

    Fine, don't buckle up ever !!!!!!!!!!

    Check under every thread in Union issues......I'm only in a couple of them, so quit exaggerating Poindexter!!
  16. soberups

    soberups Pees in the brown Koolaid

    The title should be changed from "buckle up" to "grab your ankles."
  17. jeepguy63

    jeepguy63 New Member

    Buckel up version q313. It's coming! Numbers are being crunched as I type! Districts will be working on "bottom up" plans this coming week. Then, post earnings announcement in late July, the "memo from Myron" will roll out. Normally have to wait till after earnings so they don't spook the market.
    Without an economic rebound miracle...... MIP willbe 50-60% based on the pace we're on. All of the gains are planned in q3 and q4. It just ain't there.
  18. jeepguy63

    jeepguy63 New Member

    So how about that announcement yesterday. $1.13 eps, under last year, well under expectations (which were too high anyway). Full year lowered 15 cents on the bottom side, 21 cents on the top side. 3-7% epas growth YOY.

    Its the economy stupid!

    The stock market is up for two reasons....one - listed companies continue to find ways to cut costs in order to have higher earnings per share with less revenue. And, two, the governments around the world continue to print money, making each existing dollar worth less, day after day.

    Ups's 3-7% eps growth YOY - assumes a built in 2% growth due to the share buy backs. The powers to be at 55 glen lake cannot find ways to invest the cash from operations that will generate a return better than 2%, so they continue to purchase shares of stock and retire them. Meanwhile, the competitors, FedEx and amazon, are investing in their infrastructure, both at home and abroad.

    If you have a child in the 5-8 year old range, start saving all the ups, FedEx, and amazon press releases and news articles. When they are a senior in college, you will be able to give them the research for their case study on how a 120 year old company collapses under its own weight.

    Think I'm crazy? Lay 2006 balance sheet, income statement, and pension obligations beside 2012. This isn't the same organization it was 20 years ago. (and to be fair, it wouldn't have survived all 20 years without the ipo, long term debt, etc. this post is about the future.)

    So how long before the posts about 2013-14 MIP factor? The EPS element has a 9% target. The first quarter was below 9%, but it was listed as on target. The second quarter can't be on target and we told the street it would be in the 3 - 7% range....... Welcome to 50-60% MIP factor!
  19. jeepguy63

    jeepguy63 New Member

    Mgmt hiring freeze version 2013.07.16 in place till further notice. Only sales, and positions that are so necessary that would cause someone to walk a req in to a management committee member for approval will be replaced for,the remainder of the year.

    Exp accounts, travel and all the usual cuts are back in place.

    No mention on how we'll grow revenue. No mention of new products. Just more "shrink to greatness".
  20. soberups

    soberups Pees in the brown Koolaid

    Yet we continue to piss away millions of dollars implementing high-tech gimmicks like ORION that isnt going to save us a damn nickel.