Daily Tracking polls

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by The Other Side, Oct 14, 2008.

  1. The Other Side

    The Other Side Well-Known Troll Troll

    Looks like all polls are getting closer to Double Digits!

    RCP Average10/07 - 10/13-- Obama +8.2
    LA Times/Bloomberg10/10 - 10/131030 LV5041Obama +9
    CBS News/NY Times10/10 - 10/13699 LV5339Obama +14
    Rasmussen Tracking10/11 - 10/133000 LV5045Obama +5
    Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking10/11 - 10/131208 LV4943Obama +6
    Hotline/FD Tracking10/11 - 10/13829 LV4842Obama +6
    Gallup Tracking (Traditional)*10/11 - 10/132140 LV5145Obama +6
    Gallup Tracking (Expanded)*10/11 - 10/132289 LV5343Obama +10
    GW/Battleground Tracking10/08 - 10/13800 LV5340Obama +13
    IBD/TIPP Tracking10/07 - 10/13825 LV4542Obama +3
    USA Today/Gallup (Traditional)*10/10 - 10/12761 LV5046Obama +4
    USA Today/Gallup (Expanded)*10/10 - 10/121030 LV5245Obama +7
    ABC News/Wash Post10/08 - 10/11766 LV5343Obama +10
    FOX News10/08 - 10/09900 RV4639Obama +7
    Newsweek10/08 - 10/091035 RV5241Obama +11



    Current Electoral Projections:
    Obama/Biden 313
    238 Solid 75 Leaning
    McCain/Palin 158
    140 Solid 18 Leaning
     
  2. The Other Side

    The Other Side Well-Known Troll Troll

    FOX NEWS own Ramussen Reports updates the Presidential Race today (October 16th 2008):

    A commentary by Larry Sabato notes that “John McCain's position in the Electoral College continued to deteriorate in the previous seven days.” Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is given a 84.6 % chance of winning in November

    Sabato also looks at the House races and observes that “The good news just keeps on coming for Democrats.”
    On the economic front, consumer and investor confidence remain very low, butAmericans retain long-term confidence in the stock market. In fact, 62% believe the markets will go higher in value over the next five years.
    State polling data has been released this week from Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts,Missouri, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Today, new data will be released from Ohio, Oregon and other states.
    Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
     
  3. The Other Side

    The Other Side Well-Known Troll Troll

    Poll: Voters souring on McCain, Obama stays steady

    By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON, Associated Press Writers
    WASHINGTON (AP) — When it comes to the public's image of John McCain, it's as if somebody dialed the electricity down in the past month. For Barack Obama, the juice is still flowing.
    People's regard for the Republican presidential nominee has deteriorated across-the-board since September, an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll showed Friday, with McCain losing ground in how favorably he's seen and in a long list of personal qualities voters seek in White House contenders.
    Perceptions of Obama have improved or remained steady. Beyond views of the two rivals' character traits, McCain faces another problem — Obama is more trusted on the economy, the contest's commanding issue, including a 15-percentage-point edge for better grasping how the raging financial crisis is affecting people.

    [​IMG]

    Obama's image has been sturdy even as voters' views of the overall campaign have tumbled downhill since September. The portion of people saying the contest excites them has sunk to 32 percent while those calling it frustrating have grown to 41 percent — and in both cases, six in 10 of those whose feelings have worsened are McCain backers.
    Negative campaigning and a month of intense public focus on collapsing global economic and financial markets have not been kind to McCain. The new AP-Yahoo! News poll of likely voters, conducted this month by Knowledge Networks, shows more people viewing him favorably than unfavorably by just 5 percentage points, down from a 21-point difference in mid-September.
    During the same period, Obama went the other way, increasing a 5-percentage-point net favorable rating to 15 points. Now, Obama is seen favorably by 57 percent and McCain by 52 percent — a close margin that masks the opposite direction the two rivals' ratings are heading.
    "He kind of scared me," Leesa Zick, 48, an undecided Republican from Edwardsville, Ill., said of McCain's abrupt and short-lived suspension of his campaign last month during Capitol Hill talks on a financial package. "We need a president who can deal with multiple tasks. It seemed like it overwhelmed him."
    For McCain, the poll's good news is that despite a difficult month, his public image is not dramatically worse than Obama's and in several areas remains better. The public still rates him higher than Obama for keeping America safe, working with both political parties, and being decisive, experienced and competent.
    "He's more qualified than Obama, definitely, because of his experience and history, " said Richard Tosti, 67, a Republican from Rochester, N.Y.
    Zick and Tosti are among about 2,000 people the AP-Yahoo! News poll has been tracking since November. By repeatedly questioning them, the survey has opened a detailed window on how individuals have reacted to the campaign's twists and turns.
    Less than three weeks from Election Day, Obama has taken a solid lead over McCain in most national and swing-state polls. The AP-Yahoo! News survey underscores the morale problem McCain faces.
    Obama supporters are more than twice as likely to say they're excited about the race and significantly more likely to say they're interested and hopeful. McCain backers, meanwhile, more often say they feel frustrated and helpless. Underscoring a period that has seen the rival candidates trade personal attacks, about a fifth of those backing each say they're angry.
    "There's a lot of mudslinging, which I've never been a fan of," said Eric Juhl, 27, a Republican and McCain backer from Abilene, Kan. "And to me, the media seems pretty left-wing oriented. It's kind of frustrating."
    A sour public mood is typical late in presidential campaigns as both sides' attacks accumulate, said University of Wisconsin political scientist and polling authority Charles Franklin. This year's disenchantment is probably magnified by worries about how the candidates would bolster the economy, he said.
    Even so, Obama has staked out a clear advantage on economic concerns in the AP-Yahoo! News poll. The Illinois senator is trusted more than McCain to improve the economy by 54 percent to 44 percent, and to handle the financial crisis by 53 percent to 46 percent.
    Obama also has a 56 percent to 41 percent advantage for understanding how the financial crisis affects people. Unhappily for McCain, six in 10 voters who may still change their minds, about as many independents and even one in 10 McCain backers prefer Obama on that question.
    "To me his background indicates he'd be a little more sensitive to the middle class" in addressing economic problems, Peggy Chilton, 72, an independent from Los Angeles who hasn't decided on a candidate, said of Obama.
    The numbers don't get better for McCain when it comes to personal traits.
    Following debates between the two rivals in which the Arizona senator has appeared angry at times, 46 percent consider him hot-tempered, more than triple the 13 percent who say so about Obama.
    "He'd be a little nerve-racking to have in the White House, jumping real fast," Darlene Finley, 48, an Obama-leaning independent from Ossineke, Mich., said of McCain. "When you're talking about war, that's something you don't want to do, jumping real fast."
    Since September, McCain has lost ground on nearly every quality tested in the poll, including lower scores for being likable, decisive, honest, competent, intelligent and inspiring.
    He's also lost ground for understanding ordinary peoples' problems, caring about "people like you" and improving America's international standing. Growing numbers even see him as supporting big business over the public interest and being influenced by lobbyists — despite repeated vows to do exactly the opposite.
    Obama's ratings have stayed level since last month for most qualities tested, though he has shown some improvement in whether he's considered experienced and decisive.
    Paralleling McCain's problems are similar ones faced by his running mate, Sarah Palin.
    A month ago, more people said the Alaska governor made them more likely to vote for McCain than less likely by 14 percentage points. That gap is now down to 3 points — even as growing numbers say her Democratic counterpart, Joe Biden, makes them more inclined to support Obama.
    The AP-Yahoo! News poll included 841 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 3-13 and has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Included were interviews with 373 people who initially said they were Democrats, 252 Republicans and 214 independents, for whom the margins of sampling error are plus or minus 5.1, 6.2 and 6.7 percentage points, respectively.
    The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.
    ———
     
  4. av8torntn

    av8torntn Well-Known Member

  5. av8torntn

    av8torntn Well-Known Member

    Can we get an update? You posted in another thread that B. Hussein was going to get a five point boost by this weekend from his crushing victory in the debate. It is this weekend now and I'd like to see if you got it right or not. That would give B. Hussein a plus 13 in the RCP average right?
     
  6. Monkey Butt

    Monkey Butt You can call me Chappy Staff Member

    Most people don't include the digits to the right of the period.
     
  7. drewed

    drewed Shankman

    LOL good one hoke, but on a serious not, Kerry led into the mid Oct and as did Gore before him so polls are just that polls not that it counts for anything
     
  8. Monkey Butt

    Monkey Butt You can call me Chappy Staff Member

    All polls that I can remember in the last 30 years were tilted towards the Democratic candidate once the voters spoke.
    Obama knows this and that is why he is still going full tilt.
     
  9. The Other Side

    The Other Side Well-Known Troll Troll

    PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report from Wednesday through Friday, including two days of interviewing after Wednesday night's final presidential debate, shows Barack Obama with a 50%to 42% lead over John McCain among registered voters.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. av8torntn

    av8torntn Well-Known Member


    Where is this five point bump you predicted? I suppose you are still looking for it.:happy-very:
     
  11. Monkey Butt

    Monkey Butt You can call me Chappy Staff Member

    Found this interesting artifact in all the quagmire of numbers:
    Obama 44%
    McCain 40%
    .
    Voters who are locked in for a candidate - no chance they will switch.
    .
    This is why both candidates are going full force until the end.
     
  12. Bad Gas!

    Bad Gas! Active Member

    Get ready for socialism, baby. Because that is what we are gonna get...Yeah...not!

    And do you think it is free. Get ready for higher taxes baby.It is easy to talk the smack on the state pump talks.But somebody(you and me) are gonna pay.......Everybody knows the rich have loopholes so that leaves us with the bill.
     
  13. The Other Side

    The Other Side Well-Known Troll Troll

    My prediction of a 5+ point bump was not realized as of the three day rolling average, however, it makes a better statement that McCain FAILED to gain 1 single point on any poll (excluding fox tv polls) after the debate.

    I am comfortable with maintaining a solid lead and not losing a single point.

    The difficulty remains for McCain to try and turn the tables when everything he's tried so far has failed.

    Since the last debate, the pollsters in general give Obama a commanding predicted victory with over 313 electoral votes to McCains 173.

    Ill take that prediction to the bank.
     
  14. Monkey Butt

    Monkey Butt You can call me Chappy Staff Member

    .
    A democrat with a 5 point lead is, historically, actually about even.
     
  15. av8torntn

    av8torntn Well-Known Member

    Oh OK.
     
  16. Bad Gas!

    Bad Gas! Active Member

    The only close poll I have seen lately is the poll on likely voters votes....49% for Hussain, 47% for the Maverick....This is within the margin of error..Though it is unlikely for a McCain comeback, Hussain knows it is possible..
     
  17. Bad Gas!

    Bad Gas! Active Member

    Some Surveys Indicate Tighter Presidential Race
    Differences in Predicting Outcome Result From How Pollsters Gauge Voter Turnout and Weight Party AffiliationBy NICK TIMIRAOSArticle
    Interactive Graphics
    Comments
    more in Politics & Campaign »(See Corrections and Amplifications item below.)

    A spate of widely publicized newspaper and network polls over the past week have shown Barack Obama opening a big lead over John McCain. But other surveys tell a somewhat different story, suggesting the presidential race is still close, and the Republican has even gained ground in recent days.

    The reason for the divergence: Pollsters are facing new challenges this year, trying to gauge whether the electorate is changing, and how much.

    View Interactive

    See presidential polls nationwide and in battleground states.
    Surveys giving Sen. Obama a large and growing lead tend to assume that a growing proportion of voters are Democrats, and a shrinking percentage Republicans. They also point to a big increase in turnout, particularly among voters under the age of 30. Surveys showing a closer race assume less change in party affiliation in particular.

    To be sure, Sen. Obama leads in every national poll, and the Electoral College map appears to favor the Illinois senator, who campaigns this weekend in Republican-leaning states that all voted for President George W. Bush.

    Real Clear Politics, a nonpartisan Web site that tracks major polls, reported Thursday that Sen. Obama led Sen. McCain by 49.5% to 42.7%, based on an average of 13 national surveys taken in the past week.

    The polls feeding into that conclusion show a wide range, from a CBS/New York Times poll giving Sen. Obama a 14-point lead, to a Gallup poll showing the Illinois senator with just a two-point edge, equal to the margin of error.

    A Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll this week shows the Illinois senator leading by nine points, while a Pew Research Center survey gives him a seven-point lead. But an Investor's Business Daily-TIPP poll shows Sen. Obama with a nearly four-point advantage. Recent polls by Rasmussen Reports and Zogby International show Sen. Obama leading by four and five points, respectively.

    One Gallup poll shows the Democratic nominee's lead has shrunk since last week, falling to six points from 10. "Clearly, the race has tightened," says Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Daily.

    The polls owe their wide variations, in part, to differences in how they determine likely voters. Gallup actually conducts two separate daily polls, one that includes all surveyed adults who say they will vote, and a second that is more restricted, using a decades-old methodology that determines "likely voters" in part by examining historical models on the types of voters who have showed up at the polls.

    In the first Gallup sample, Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain by six points. The second group yields the two-point gap. Both polls were conducted from Oct. 13-15.

    Differences over how to accurately gauge party affiliation also help account for the discrepancies. Some pollsters argue polls should be statistically "weighted" so that their results achieve a partisan composition that reflects long-term national averages -- particularly if a poll shows that one party gets an unusually large share among the respondents, compared with past elections.

    Pollster Scott Rasmussen, for example, weights current polls so that Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 39.3% to 33% margin, while pollster John Zogby adjusts polls so that Democrats account for around 38% of the electorate and Republicans, 36%. So even if a particular sample of calls shows different ratios, the pollsters adjust to fit that formula.

    "What troubles me is when I see some of my colleagues have 27% of the respondents that are Republicans. That's just not America, period," says Mr. Zogby, whose polls have shown Sen. Obama with a lead ranging from two to six points this month. He argues that while party affiliation fluctuates over time, it doesn't change "day-to-day, and it never fluctuates by eight points in a short time period."


    Getty Images
    Some surveys suggest McCain has gained ground in recent days.
    Other pollsters argue that polls should use whatever partisan mix results from a particular survey rather than arbitrarily establishing party affiliation weights. "How do you know that's right? I mean, they're making up numbers," says Susan Pinkus, who conducts the Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll, which isn't weighted. In this week's poll, the respondents were 34% Democratic and 26% Republican.

    Both campaigns are running large vote turnout operations, and the Obama campaign is counting on unprecedented turnout from young voters, which further complicates efforts to determine likely voters. "It's more art than science in many cases. They're very difficult decisions to make," says Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster who conducts the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll.

    Predicting turnout among young voters remains particularly challenging because many of those voters don't use landline phones that pollsters traditionally rely on to achieve a balanced sample. Pollsters have also struggled with accurately predicting minority turnout and how race could influence the current election.

    Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com


    Corrections and Amplifications:

    The headline on this article incorrectly said the polls differed on who was leading the race. The polls reflect differences in the size of Sen. Barack Obama's lead.
     
  18. Bad Gas!

    Bad Gas! Active Member

    More polls daily:

    Released: October 19, 2008
    Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1%

    McCain slowly gains on Obama


    UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain continued a slow advance on Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, moving back within three percentage points as the race begins to head down the stretch run, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

    Data from this poll is available here

    McCain now trails Obama by 2.7 points, down from the 3.9 point deficit he faced 24 hours earlier.

    Seven-point-one percent of the likely voters surveyed said they remain undecided.

    Obama lost five-tenths of a point from yesterday's report, while McCain gained another six-tenths of a point. It was the third consecutive day in which Obama's numbers slipped and McCain's numbers increased.

    McCain has once again moved above 45% support overall, a mark he has not seen since the second day of daily tracking reports. Obama's slip under 48% support is the first time at that level in nearly a week. He now stands within one-tenth of a percent of where he stood when the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking began almost two weeks ago. McCain is within two-tenths of a percent of where he was when the tracking poll began.

    During the 13 days of the tracking poll, Obama has led by as much as 6.2 points and as little as 1.9 points.

    Except for a few hours of polling, this three-day rolling average of telephone polling now includes a sample taken entirely after the final presidential debate last Wednesday.

    The tracking poll includes 1,211 likely voters across the country who were surveyed between Oct. 16-18, 2008, at the rate of about 400 per day. The survey, conducted using live telephone interviewers calling from Zogby's call center in Upstate New York, carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

    Week Two Three-Day

    Tracking Poll
    10-18
    10-17
    10-16
    10-15
    10-14
    10-13

    Obama
    47.8%
    48.3%
    48.7%
    49.0%
    48.2%
    49.0%

    McCain
    45.1%
    44.4%
    43.7%
    43.5%
    44.4%
    42.8%

    Others/Not sure
    7.1%
    7.3%
    7.6%
    7.5%
    7.4%
    8.2%



    Week One Three-Day

    Tracking Poll
    10-12
    10-11
    10-10
    10-9
    10-8
    10-7
    10-6


    Obama
    47.9%
    48.9%
    47.6%
    47.6%
    47.8%
    47.1%
    47.7%

    McCain
    43.6%
    42.8%
    43.8%
    43.4%
    44.2%
    45.2%
    45.3%

    Others/Not sure
    8.5%
    8.3%
    8.6%
    9.0%
    8.0%
    7.7%
    7.0%


    McCain made a big move Saturday among independent voters, cutting's Obama lead from 16 points to just 8 points. Now, Obama leads by a 46% to 38% margin, with the balance of independents either unsure or supporting someone else. McCain's strong performance at the Alfred E. Smith charity dinner in New York City Thursday, combined with his appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman Thursday night, may have had a positive effect. Other Zogby polling has recently shown that independent undecided voters tend to prefer consuming their politics in such entertainment venues. Obama was also praised for his performance at the Alfred E. Smith dinner.

    Both candidates have remained strong among their political bases - McCain wins 90% of Republicans, compared to 88% of Democrats who support Obama.

    Men are now, again, tilting very slightly in favor of McCain, who leads by just two percentage points among the group. Among women, Obama leads, but only by six points.

    Obama continues to win 18% support among conservative voters, while McCain wins only seven percent among liberals. Among moderates, a demographic that includes substantially more Democrats than Republicans, Obama leads, 61% to 33% for McCain.

    Among those who consider themselves investors, McCain retains a small, four-point lead - helpful but no where near as large a margin as Republican George W. Bush enjoyed over his Democratic rival four years ago.

    Daily Tracking Continues

    This daily tracking telephone poll will continue each day until the Nov. 4 election. With each new day of responses that are folded into the poll, the oldest third of the survey is removed, so the poll "tracks" changes in voter attitudes following events and developments in the race. Keep up-to-date every day by visiting www.zogby.com.

    For a complete methodological on this survey, please visit:

    http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1354

    (10/19/2008)



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  19. av8torntn

    av8torntn Well-Known Member

    RCP Average10/12 - 10/18----48.843.8Obama +5.0
    Rasmussen Reports10/16 - 10/183000 LV2.05145Obama +6
    Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby10/16 - 10/181210 LV2.94845Obama +3
    Hotline/FD10/16 - 10/18795 LV3.54841Obama +7
    Gallup (Traditional)*10/15 - 10/172572 LV2.04947Obama +2
    Gallup (Expanded)*10/15 - 10/172263 LV2.05046Obama +4
    IBD/TIPP10/13 - 10/171093 LV3.04740Obama +7
    GWU/Battleground10/12 - 10/16800 LV3.54945Obama +4

    What happened TOS you did say McCain would not have any gain?
     
  20. av8torntn

    av8torntn Well-Known Member

    RCP Average10/13 - 10/19----48.844.0Obama +4.8
    Rasmussen Reports10/17 - 10/193000 LV2.05046Obama +4
    Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby10/17 - 10/191211 LV2.95044Obama +6
    Hotline/FD10/17 - 10/19789 LV3.54742Obama +5
    Gallup (Traditional)*10/16 - 10/182590 LV2.04946Obama +3
    Gallup (Expanded)*10/16 - 10/182277 LV2.05144Obama +7
    GWU/Battleground10/13 - 10/191000 LV3.54945Obama +4I
    BD/TIPP
    10/14 - 10/181072 LV3.04742Obama +5