February 2nd

[fishtm2001]

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2024-02-02-groundhog-day-shadow-punxsutawney-phil

 

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How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions? - CBS News

February 2, 2024

"Punxsutawney Phil is a groundhog, not a meteorologist. Between 2013 and 2023, he saw his shadow seven times, and of those seven, he was correct only once.

NOAA's determinations on Phil's accuracy are based on temperatures in February and March. Here's how it breaks down:

• 2013: No shadow — His prediction was right.
• 2014: Shadow — His prediction was right.
• 2015: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
• 2016: No shadow — His prediction was right.
• 2017: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
• 2018: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
• 2019: No shadow — His prediction was wrong.
• 2020: No shadow — His prediction was right.
• 2021: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
• 2022: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.
• 2023: Shadow — His prediction was wrong.

Phil's accuracy rate over the time period was 36%. Overall, the Stormfax Almanac says, Phil has only been right 39% of the time going back to his first recorded prediction in 1887."

 

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