FedEx: On The Wings of Industrial Recovery

Discussion in 'The Latest FedEx Headlines' started by cheryl, Nov 30, 2010.

  1. cheryl

    cheryl I started this. Staff Member

    FedEx: On The Wings of Industrial Recovery - Barrons

    Shares of the package shipper should benefit from an improved global economic outlook, says Credit Suisse.

    WE ARE UPGRADING FEDEX to Outperform from Neutral, and taking our 12-month target price to $111 from $98, which suggests roughly 27% upside from current levels.

    FedEx has the most operating leverage of all the companies in our coverage universe. As such, the stock tends to underperform when the market grows concerned about global economic growth (as it has for the past several months), but by the same token it tends to outperform when the growth outlook brightens, as our Econ team is now forecasting.

    Based on our discounted-cash flow (DCF) analysis, we think the market is pricing FedEx for about 6.5% operating-profit growth. This is at the low end of the range we have observed for this stock, and stands at a two-point discount to United Parcel Service (UPS), at an implied-growth rate of 8.5%.

    The last time we saw the FedEx/United Parcel Service gap this wide was in mid-2009, on the eve of sustained surge in FedEx shares.