Hoffa Uses Mystery Math to Sell Tentative Agreement

Discussion in 'The Archives' started by tdu, Jul 18, 2002.

  1. tdu

    tdu Guest

    Hoffa Uses Mystery Math to Sell Tentative Agreement

    UPS Teamsters deserve the straight story, and a fair and informed vote on the contract. They dont deserve baloney, PR or mystery math. We call on the International Union to treat all our hard working UPS Teamsters with the respect they deserve.

    In any event, TDU will take positive action to get factual information to all members, so they can make up their own minds.

    In this whole contract process, we have seen a lack of information (known to members as the brown out) and more hype than factual information.

    Now we are getting mystery math. Here are two important examples:

    Mystery Math #1. Hoffa has claimed the tentative agreement would close the wage gap between part time and full time Teamsters employed at UPS.
    Actually, this agreement would dramatically widen this wage gap.

    At present the starting wage for UPS part timers is $8.50. Because of high turnover, most part-timers have very low seniority. The average wage of part-timers at present is $10.70, according to the company, while the average wage of full time drivers is about $23.

    Under this agreement, the base wage would go up only 50c over six years, so that UPS will be hiring part timers in 2008 at $8.50 an hour and after 90 days there would reach $9 per hour. There seems little doubt that by 2008 McDonalds, Burger King and other low wage employers will be paying more than $9 per hour. They already do in some areas of the country. Thus some 150,000 Teamsters employed as part timers in 2008 could be working for wages below McDonalds. More importantly, they would be making less than workers at FedEx, which has to be a major organizing target for our union.

    The average part-time wage, under the tentative agreement, would go up about 50c, to about $11.20 in 2008. The average full-time wage at that time would be $28.

    The existing part-time workers will get a boost in their wage increases, as they did in the previous contract, but due to high turnover this will have virtually no impact on the wage gap or the average part-time wage in the future.

    Thus the wage gap would dramatically widen, with part time labor being the majority of the estimated 272,000 Teamsters who will be at UPS by 2008, and making far less than half the hourly wage of full-timers. This is a dangerous situation for the future of our union.

    Mystery Math #2. Hoffa has claimed that this contract will cost the company $9 billion, thus it is twice as rich as the 1997 contract.
    Actually, this comparison is based on faulty math. It is worth no more at all.

    Consider three simple facts:

    The contract is six years instead of five. To compare, we need to multiple by 83% (5/6).

    This contract is five years later, with inflation of 15% since then. To compare, we will need to multiply by 85%.

    This contract covers 25% more workers, due to growth of the company. To compare, we will need to multiply by 75%.
    Once we multiply 83% x 85% x 75% x $9 billion, we get $4.7 billion, roughly half as much as Hoffas Mystery Math figure.

    We urge Teamsters to study the contract, not the press releases.
     
  2. robonono

    robonono Guest

    Mystery Math my A**!

    If over the next 6 years UPS spends $( billion more than they would have under the 1997 contract, then the bottom line is that this new contract cost an extra $9 billion.

    Typically, the TDU is always looking for the negative spin on everything - even if the facts have to be twisted in order for them to make their point.

    Sad!
     
  3. robonono

    robonono Guest

    I apologize, I attempted to edit my post but failed, so I'll re-post with the correction.

    Mystery Math my A**!

    If over the next 6 years UPS spends $9 billion more than they would have under the 1997 contract, then the bottom line is that this new contract cost an extra $9 billion.

    Typically, the TDU is always looking for the negative spin on everything - even if the facts have to be twisted in order for them to make their point.

    Sad!
     
  4. wkmac

    wkmac Guest

    robo,
    I wouldn't sweat it to much. TDU lost credibility a long time ago. When I first experienced TDU back in the early to mid 80's I thought they were a good thing but as the years rolled by and with the Carey adminstration their true colors started to show. After the Carey years many Teamsters have wised up and don't put a lot of stock in what TDU has to say. No contract will be perfect just as no law from Washington is perfect. You just can't please everyone. And besides, if in 6 years McDonalds is paying $12 per hour and UPS is paying $9 then UPS will suffer from this decision and I would think these TDU folks would like UPS to suffer. Come to think of it, they should be all for this new contract. LOL!
     
  5. lr1937

    lr1937 Guest

    TDU
    Wasn't mr cary involved in a few mysteries? I know a guy in Florida who is turning sand into "glass houses". I can get you one but the location and square footage is a "mystery". You had your chance and it "dissappeared" Can you tell me why or is it a "mystery"
     
  6. upscopris

    upscopris Guest

    I've been lurking but for some reason this post made me sign up for a reply. It must be the math geek in me.

    Rob, I wanted to point out to you that the contract will cost $9 billion total not $9 billion more than the prior contract. I just wanted to clear that up for you.

    TDU, your a post is a clever attempt to spin things against Hoffa.

    At present the starting wage for UPS part timers is $8.50. Because of high turnover, most part-timers have very low seniority. The average wage of part-timers at present is $10.70, according to the company, while the average wage of full time drivers is about $23.

    The bold section focuses on why the effect of the contract for a certain subset of p/ters (low seniority) won't close the gap. That is "mystery math". Plain math says that $6 is more than $5.

    Hoffa has claimed that this contract will cost the company $9 billion, thus it is twice as rich as the 1997 contract.
    Actually, this comparison is based on faulty math. It is worth no more at all.

    Consider three simple facts:

    The contract is six years instead of five. To compare, we need to multiple by 83% (5/6).

    This contract is five years later, with inflation of 15% since then. To compare, we will need to multiply by 85%.

    This contract covers 25% more workers, due to growth of the company. To compare, we will need to multiply by 75%.
    Once we multiply 83% x 85% x 75% x $9 billion, we get $4.7 billion, roughly half as much as Hoffas Mystery Math figure.


    Here your quibbling over the meaning of "twice as rich". $9 billion will always twice as much as $4.5 billion. That is not "mystery math" as you claim.

    You've insinuated that Hoffa said the impact to each member would be twice as great as the prior contract. Come up with that quote and then your rant holds some water. While I agree with most of your impact assessment, I will argue one thing within it. You used inflation to decrease the impact. I challenge you to produce prior tdu drivel that states company profits with inflation factored in as a reducing factor. My guess is that you can't and that future diatribes won't reduce profits by inflation either. Now that's "mystery math"!
     
  7. deliver_man

    deliver_man Guest

    $9 billion will always twice as much as $4.5 billion.

    Actually, that's not true, due to the phenomenon of inflation. Unless you are talking about apples. Not defending TDU, but he does have a valid point there. Whether or not his numbers will add up remains to be seen, as noone I know can accuratley predict future rates of inflation.
     
  8. upscopris

    upscopris Guest

    Deliver man,

    I respecfully disagree. I ask you this, if a company's profits grow 10% in a year in which inflation is 3%, did profits really grow 10%? The standard view on this is that profits did grow 10% but the purchasing power of those profits has been eroded 3%. It is no different when it comes to factoring in inflation to the value of this contract when compared with the previous contract. The value is $9b, which is absolutely twice as much as $4.5b. The buying power of the $9b is reduced by inflation. Don't let TDU's double talk confuse the facts. I agree that the effective increase is lower but the same is true for the money made by UPS. I just find it way too convenient that inflation comes into play now when it comes to talking about the impact of the dollars in a Teamster pocket but it's not mentioned when the rhetoric flies about profit growth and dollars going into the UPS coffers.
     
  9. deliver_man

    deliver_man Guest

    Well, thats why I made the comment about apples. Yes, If you are talking abstract numbers, or fruit, then 9b is always twice as much as 4.5b. But dollars are not apples or abstract numbers, the value of a dollar is based on the purchasing power it represents, which has declined yearly. So in real economic terms, 9b dollars today is not worth twice as much as 4.5b dollars was 10 years ago. But anyway, I respect your opinion, and we can just agree to disagree, because it's all pretty much academic anyway. I lost all respect for TDU when they failed to stand by Ron Carey.
     
  10. upscopris

    upscopris Guest

    I understand and respect your point of view. Your point of view is not TDU's. Your's is a reasonable view on inflation. I agree that the reduced purchasing power due to inflation should be considered as a factor in what the contract's impact on your lifestyle will be. TDU's purpose was to twist the snake oil out of rational thought like yours.
     
  11. proups

    proups Guest

    Maybe I am simple-minded. I think this is a great contract from what I have heard. I feel good about where the company is heading and the fact that they are willing to share the wealth. It was good to hear Jimmy Hoffa say that "if we had more companies like UPS, America would be a better place".

    People like TDU would rant and rave if they won the lottery. Oh, and by the way, if TDU won the lottery, do you think he would protest because they pay it over a 20 year period and the money in 20 years would not be worth what it is worth today - so the lottery commission should do something about that. Some people are never happy!