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IF DRA Fails?
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<blockquote data-quote="Ricochet1a" data-source="post: 1137798" data-attributes="member: 22880"><p>DRA can't fail - Express has bet the farm on the concept.</p><p></p><p>What the problem is.... is the "Dynamic' part of DRA. </p><p></p><p>DRA has two conflicting parameters working at the same time:</p><p></p><p>1) an attempt to 'dynamically' balance route loads based on time predictions to complete ALL routes (all routes balanced)</p><p></p><p>2) differential time commitments present in Express service (PO, SOS, Deferred)</p><p></p><p>What many stations are doing in order to minimize the mess, is to revert to SRA (Static Route Assignment). The software does the stop ordering, but doesn't attempt to balance route volumes. </p><p></p><p>What the engineers already know, is that Express has a wide 'variance' in volumes of P1. Some routes can vary by as much as 30% in daily P1 volume (static assignment). This plays havoc with route planning - thus the concept of 'dynamic' balancing of routes. </p><p></p><p>The problem occurs when the software tries to balance P1 - then it defaults to assigning P2 that is covered in the area 'footprint' of P1 to the same route. So a route can be 'balanced' for P1, but then go out 'light' in P2 (there was a lot of P1 in a small area, so the software only assigns P2 to that route using the same 'boundaries' that were used for P1). This leaves routes balanced for P1, but with a wide differential in P2 volume. This isn't acceptable, since it leaves routes finishing early, while others incur overtime to get their volume off. Then if a route is slammed with P2 and has pickups.... you have all seen the mess. </p><p></p><p>The software was designed with 'paper routing' in mind - they are having fits trying to get it to work with the different time commitments of Express. </p><p></p><p>As I said before (and has been attested to by others here), is that Express is ADDING part-time employees for the SOLE purpose of ensuring service is made while DRA is ironed out. These 'extra' employees are added to loops, to basically take any predicted 'overflow' in P1 volumes, to ensure very few pieces end up with service failures. </p><p></p><p>The engineer I know has already stated to me that IF DRA cannot be adequately implemented in the next year (in the stations that are already using it), they will revert to SRA and continue on that path. With SRA, the stop ordering is done, the only real difference is that route boundaries aren't 'dynamically shifted' to balance between routes in a loop. Route boundaries are more or less fixed under SRA, and what is done, is have managers do the old fashioned stop count, and rebalance routes the old fashioned way if a route is overwhelmed with P1. They want to get away from this (less management footprint - again, wrote on this in March and way back last year), and have managers not focusing on route balancing, but more on Courier management. With spans of control approaching 20 Couriers per ops manager - ops managers CANNOT be going around fine tuning each route before the trucks leave the building each day, simply cannot be done. </p><p></p><p>He has also commented that Express may end up in creating positions which would act to 'oversee' the software. People would come in late at night (once the computer system has all the volume to be delivered the next day in system), to review each route assignment, then manually make adjustments to routes to ensure no problems arise. HOWEVER, this would be a costly solution to solve a problem which the computer software is SUPPOSEDLY designed to do in the first place. </p><p></p><p><u>This gets back to the real 'root' of the problem: Express is trying to simultaneously slash management expense (fewer managers, resulting in MORE Couriers per manager), while making the need for experienced Couriers obsolete</u> - conflicting goals, Express is trying to have and eat its cake at the same time, nothing new for Express.</p><p></p><p>Express KNOWS that with the wages they are offering combined with no pay progression (they have realized with the 2013 SFA that the employees have FINALLY caught on to the fact that they won't ever see any real pay progression from this point forward - only took the wage employees about 4 years to realize this fact...), that the 'middle' of Courier force (between 6 and 17 years in), is gradually disappearing. The Courier force is taking on the characteristics of two separate groups (in capability, commitment, and compensation): the topped out 20+ year Courier, and the bottomed out Courier with less than 5 years in. Each year, the number of topped out Couriers become less and less (retirement), to be replaced by an ever growing pool of rapidly turning over Couriers who do the job for a few years then leave. </p><p></p><p>Express KNOWS that in order to maintain some level of service (in light of the fact of the increasing numbers of unmotivated, high turnover, low experience Couriers), that they MUST implement DRA in order to take all the thinking out of the Courier job and make it strictly an exercise of 'connect the dots' (follow stop ordering). Thus what you as a Courier are seeing.</p><p></p><p>Will DRA fail? Highly doubtful. Express knows that once they make the career Courier obsolete, they can get by with Couriers with less than 5 years in, and save (by some estimates), $250 MILLION a year in wage and benefit expenses compared to having a Courier force with 'balance' in progression. Look at Ground, and you will see the future of Express, I've said it before.</p><p></p><p>With a potential annual savings of $250 MILLION a year at stake - Express will go to virtually ANY length to make DRA succeed. Don't plan on it failing as a replacement for taking action to protect your 'career'. <em>I know you as a collective whole AREN'T taking any action right now...., so it is rather pointless for me to suggest that you are doing something to thwart Express' actions towards your 'career'.</em> </p><p></p><p>Plan on DRA eventually working. That is a hell of a lot more likely to happen than the Couriers getting their act together and actually organizing.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Ricochet1a, post: 1137798, member: 22880"] DRA can't fail - Express has bet the farm on the concept. What the problem is.... is the "Dynamic' part of DRA. DRA has two conflicting parameters working at the same time: 1) an attempt to 'dynamically' balance route loads based on time predictions to complete ALL routes (all routes balanced) 2) differential time commitments present in Express service (PO, SOS, Deferred) What many stations are doing in order to minimize the mess, is to revert to SRA (Static Route Assignment). The software does the stop ordering, but doesn't attempt to balance route volumes. What the engineers already know, is that Express has a wide 'variance' in volumes of P1. Some routes can vary by as much as 30% in daily P1 volume (static assignment). This plays havoc with route planning - thus the concept of 'dynamic' balancing of routes. The problem occurs when the software tries to balance P1 - then it defaults to assigning P2 that is covered in the area 'footprint' of P1 to the same route. So a route can be 'balanced' for P1, but then go out 'light' in P2 (there was a lot of P1 in a small area, so the software only assigns P2 to that route using the same 'boundaries' that were used for P1). This leaves routes balanced for P1, but with a wide differential in P2 volume. This isn't acceptable, since it leaves routes finishing early, while others incur overtime to get their volume off. Then if a route is slammed with P2 and has pickups.... you have all seen the mess. The software was designed with 'paper routing' in mind - they are having fits trying to get it to work with the different time commitments of Express. As I said before (and has been attested to by others here), is that Express is ADDING part-time employees for the SOLE purpose of ensuring service is made while DRA is ironed out. These 'extra' employees are added to loops, to basically take any predicted 'overflow' in P1 volumes, to ensure very few pieces end up with service failures. The engineer I know has already stated to me that IF DRA cannot be adequately implemented in the next year (in the stations that are already using it), they will revert to SRA and continue on that path. With SRA, the stop ordering is done, the only real difference is that route boundaries aren't 'dynamically shifted' to balance between routes in a loop. Route boundaries are more or less fixed under SRA, and what is done, is have managers do the old fashioned stop count, and rebalance routes the old fashioned way if a route is overwhelmed with P1. They want to get away from this (less management footprint - again, wrote on this in March and way back last year), and have managers not focusing on route balancing, but more on Courier management. With spans of control approaching 20 Couriers per ops manager - ops managers CANNOT be going around fine tuning each route before the trucks leave the building each day, simply cannot be done. He has also commented that Express may end up in creating positions which would act to 'oversee' the software. People would come in late at night (once the computer system has all the volume to be delivered the next day in system), to review each route assignment, then manually make adjustments to routes to ensure no problems arise. HOWEVER, this would be a costly solution to solve a problem which the computer software is SUPPOSEDLY designed to do in the first place. [U]This gets back to the real 'root' of the problem: Express is trying to simultaneously slash management expense (fewer managers, resulting in MORE Couriers per manager), while making the need for experienced Couriers obsolete[/U] - conflicting goals, Express is trying to have and eat its cake at the same time, nothing new for Express. Express KNOWS that with the wages they are offering combined with no pay progression (they have realized with the 2013 SFA that the employees have FINALLY caught on to the fact that they won't ever see any real pay progression from this point forward - only took the wage employees about 4 years to realize this fact...), that the 'middle' of Courier force (between 6 and 17 years in), is gradually disappearing. The Courier force is taking on the characteristics of two separate groups (in capability, commitment, and compensation): the topped out 20+ year Courier, and the bottomed out Courier with less than 5 years in. Each year, the number of topped out Couriers become less and less (retirement), to be replaced by an ever growing pool of rapidly turning over Couriers who do the job for a few years then leave. Express KNOWS that in order to maintain some level of service (in light of the fact of the increasing numbers of unmotivated, high turnover, low experience Couriers), that they MUST implement DRA in order to take all the thinking out of the Courier job and make it strictly an exercise of 'connect the dots' (follow stop ordering). Thus what you as a Courier are seeing. Will DRA fail? Highly doubtful. Express knows that once they make the career Courier obsolete, they can get by with Couriers with less than 5 years in, and save (by some estimates), $250 MILLION a year in wage and benefit expenses compared to having a Courier force with 'balance' in progression. Look at Ground, and you will see the future of Express, I've said it before. With a potential annual savings of $250 MILLION a year at stake - Express will go to virtually ANY length to make DRA succeed. Don't plan on it failing as a replacement for taking action to protect your 'career'. [I]I know you as a collective whole AREN'T taking any action right now...., so it is rather pointless for me to suggest that you are doing something to thwart Express' actions towards your 'career'.[/I] Plan on DRA eventually working. That is a hell of a lot more likely to happen than the Couriers getting their act together and actually organizing. [/QUOTE]
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