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<blockquote data-quote="soberups" data-source="post: 937295" data-attributes="member: 14668"><p>Heres what scares me.</p><p></p><p>Israel regards a nuclear-armed Iran as an existensal threat, meaning that they will take <em>any measures necessary</em> to eliminate that threat.</p><p></p><p>Problem is....Israel really <em>cant</em> eliminate the threat using conventional weapons alone. Iran is too far away. Israel simply does not have the ability to mount the kind of <em>sustained</em> aerial campaign that would be required to deal Irans nuclear facilities a knockout blow. Israels friend-15's and friend-16's cant make it to Iran and back without aerial refueling, which would have to take place over hostile airspace. Israel would be forced to overfly hostile countries en route to Iran (although one wonders if the Saudis, who also hate Iran, would look the other way towards Israeli overflights of their territory). Israel also lacks the high-tech "bunker-buster" bombs that are needed to penetrate hardened, underground targets. So, if push comes to shove and the Israelis truly feel that their very existence is threatened....I fear they will use their <em>own</em> nuclear weapons first. Or, by threatening to use their nukes, they will compel us to do the job for them with our far greater conventional capabilities and with the support of the Arab Gulf states that also fear a nuclear Iran. We may get dragged into this mess whether we want to be or not.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="soberups, post: 937295, member: 14668"] Heres what scares me. Israel regards a nuclear-armed Iran as an existensal threat, meaning that they will take [I]any measures necessary[/I] to eliminate that threat. Problem is....Israel really [I]cant[/I] eliminate the threat using conventional weapons alone. Iran is too far away. Israel simply does not have the ability to mount the kind of [I]sustained[/I] aerial campaign that would be required to deal Irans nuclear facilities a knockout blow. Israels friend-15's and friend-16's cant make it to Iran and back without aerial refueling, which would have to take place over hostile airspace. Israel would be forced to overfly hostile countries en route to Iran (although one wonders if the Saudis, who also hate Iran, would look the other way towards Israeli overflights of their territory). Israel also lacks the high-tech "bunker-buster" bombs that are needed to penetrate hardened, underground targets. So, if push comes to shove and the Israelis truly feel that their very existence is threatened....I fear they will use their [I]own[/I] nuclear weapons first. Or, by threatening to use their nukes, they will compel us to do the job for them with our far greater conventional capabilities and with the support of the Arab Gulf states that also fear a nuclear Iran. We may get dragged into this mess whether we want to be or not. [/QUOTE]
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