How effective is formal terrorist training for the successful completion of a plot?
· 16 al-Qaeda Core trained networks:
o 3 succeeded (1993 World Trade Center bombing; 9/11/01; and 7/7/05 London underground bombing) [19 oer cent]
o 2 failed to explode (2001 Shoe bomber; 7/21/05 London underground plot)
o 11 were detected and arrested beforehand
· 10 al-Qaeda Affiliate trained networks
o 2 GIA networks succeeded (1994 AF hijack; 1995 wave of bombing in France) [20 per cent]
o 1 failed to explode (1996 Lille plot)
o 7 were detected and arrested beforehand (including Hofstad network)
· 20 al-Qaeda Inspired networks (no formal training)
o 2 succeeded (2004 Madrid bombings & 2004 Bouyeri assassination of van Gogh)[10 per cent, but only 5 per cent if we do not count the assassination, which requires no training]
o 3 failed to explode
o 16 were detected and arrested beforehand.
The above results seem to indicate that formal training matters. Both al-Qaeda Core and al-Qaeda Affiliate formal training resulted in an approximate success rate of 20 per cent, while lack of training led to a success rate of 10 per cent. So, training doubles the probability of success in a terrorist network.