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<blockquote data-quote="Char" data-source="post: 286395" data-attributes="member: 10877"><p>I been off the forums for a while however, I have been monitoring them. Here is the breakdown of the candidates up until Iowa.</p><p> </p><p>Hillary Clinton has been knocked off her pedistal. The myth off her inevitability has been shattered as well as the myth that women will vote for in droves. Don't get me wrong, I still think she will get the nomination, but Obama is a real threat, and if she does get it, she will be bloodied and beaten in the end. </p><p> </p><p>John Edwards is finished. If he is too have any real influence in this election he should drop out some time soon and toss his support to Obama as Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich have. It is clear that the Democrat establishment does not want Hillary to get the nomination.</p><p> </p><p>As I said, Obama is a real threat. In 2004, we all heard how young people will turn out to defeat Bush but as in the past, young people proved once again in 2004, they cannot be counted on to show up. Obama has made headway with young people and women.</p><p> </p><p>This race is between Clinton and Obama. Clinton Inc can't do what they normally do to their opponents in a campaign. Their attacks on Obama backfired. Obama has female and young people support and can get them to the polls. Clintons support has peaked and can only go down. People who are voting for have already decided on her and those who do not support her probably never will. People used to say they are turned off by negative campaigns but they usually work. For the first time, negativity may backfire, and this may put Clinton at a real disadvantage if it holds true. It won't work against Obama.</p><p> </p><p>John McCain has risen from the dead and may be viable. Unfortunately for him, the only real connection he has to the Republican base is his desire for victory in Iraq. Other than that, he has alienated himself on alot of issues so I don't think he has a real shot. </p><p> </p><p>Rudy Guilliani may be finished. I just don't think the base will turn out for him in the primary. If Iowa has shown anything, it is that the Christian Right seems to leaning toward "one of their own". New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and 9/11 are not enough to pull out a primary win.</p><p> </p><p>Mitt Romney is gonna have a hard time. If McCain wins New Hampshire, his only shot of staying in is in Nevada and Michigan. He has to win something early to stay in. Being a Mormon is gonna make it tough, as well as he may appear to be too polished and not authentic.</p><p> </p><p>Fred Thompson I just don't think will cut it.</p><p> </p><p>Ron Paul is a unique candidate and I understand his appeal. Of all the candidates that talk about limiting the size and scope of government, and adhering to the Constitution, Ron Paul is probably the only one that really means it and would work towards it. His foreign policy in the matter of national security is just insane. Philosophically, I can see his point on Iraq and non-intervention, however it is just too dangerous of a world to stand by a watch others destabalize and get dictators entranched. Alot less isolationism would help. He might be a real contender if it wasn't for this.</p><p> </p><p>Mike Huckabee has locked himself in as a real contender with his 9 point victory in Iowa. The Christian Right seems to be on board with him. If this is proven to be factual, he may have the nomination locked up. He may be devastating in the South and Midwest. I believe he is counting on the other candidates to beat Romney in enough states to eliminate him as a threat. </p><p> </p><p>On the Republican side, it is a 4-way race and is up for grabs. There are 3 parts to the conservative coalition: social, national defense, and economic. The social conservatives want Romney or Huckabee. The economic wants Guilliani or Romney. The national defense wants McCain or Guilliani. Social conservatives are the biggest slice or at least have more influence over the other two. This gives the advantage to Huckabee as McCain and Guilliani may beat Romney in enough places while Huckabee is capable of beating in other places. </p><p> </p><p>Char</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Char, post: 286395, member: 10877"] I been off the forums for a while however, I have been monitoring them. Here is the breakdown of the candidates up until Iowa. Hillary Clinton has been knocked off her pedistal. The myth off her inevitability has been shattered as well as the myth that women will vote for in droves. Don't get me wrong, I still think she will get the nomination, but Obama is a real threat, and if she does get it, she will be bloodied and beaten in the end. John Edwards is finished. If he is too have any real influence in this election he should drop out some time soon and toss his support to Obama as Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich have. It is clear that the Democrat establishment does not want Hillary to get the nomination. As I said, Obama is a real threat. In 2004, we all heard how young people will turn out to defeat Bush but as in the past, young people proved once again in 2004, they cannot be counted on to show up. Obama has made headway with young people and women. This race is between Clinton and Obama. Clinton Inc can't do what they normally do to their opponents in a campaign. Their attacks on Obama backfired. Obama has female and young people support and can get them to the polls. Clintons support has peaked and can only go down. People who are voting for have already decided on her and those who do not support her probably never will. People used to say they are turned off by negative campaigns but they usually work. For the first time, negativity may backfire, and this may put Clinton at a real disadvantage if it holds true. It won't work against Obama. John McCain has risen from the dead and may be viable. Unfortunately for him, the only real connection he has to the Republican base is his desire for victory in Iraq. Other than that, he has alienated himself on alot of issues so I don't think he has a real shot. Rudy Guilliani may be finished. I just don't think the base will turn out for him in the primary. If Iowa has shown anything, it is that the Christian Right seems to leaning toward "one of their own". New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and 9/11 are not enough to pull out a primary win. Mitt Romney is gonna have a hard time. If McCain wins New Hampshire, his only shot of staying in is in Nevada and Michigan. He has to win something early to stay in. Being a Mormon is gonna make it tough, as well as he may appear to be too polished and not authentic. Fred Thompson I just don't think will cut it. Ron Paul is a unique candidate and I understand his appeal. Of all the candidates that talk about limiting the size and scope of government, and adhering to the Constitution, Ron Paul is probably the only one that really means it and would work towards it. His foreign policy in the matter of national security is just insane. Philosophically, I can see his point on Iraq and non-intervention, however it is just too dangerous of a world to stand by a watch others destabalize and get dictators entranched. Alot less isolationism would help. He might be a real contender if it wasn't for this. Mike Huckabee has locked himself in as a real contender with his 9 point victory in Iowa. The Christian Right seems to be on board with him. If this is proven to be factual, he may have the nomination locked up. He may be devastating in the South and Midwest. I believe he is counting on the other candidates to beat Romney in enough states to eliminate him as a threat. On the Republican side, it is a 4-way race and is up for grabs. There are 3 parts to the conservative coalition: social, national defense, and economic. The social conservatives want Romney or Huckabee. The economic wants Guilliani or Romney. The national defense wants McCain or Guilliani. Social conservatives are the biggest slice or at least have more influence over the other two. This gives the advantage to Huckabee as McCain and Guilliani may beat Romney in enough places while Huckabee is capable of beating in other places. Char [/QUOTE]
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