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<blockquote data-quote="wkmac" data-source="post: 86372" data-attributes="member: 2189"><p>It will be interesting to see what the results are on Thursday. My biggest concern going forward especially into the summer months is fuel prices. Each of us has seen the latest rapid upward price per gallon and many estimates are saying well over $3 per gallon nationwide average price and that's without any storm realted disruptions like we had last summer. I think this and to my knowledge, the yet unsettled UPS pilot's contract will continue to be a drag on our stock allowing FedEx to continue to out perform us on Wall Street. I also think lagging in the back of investors mind's is the pending 2008' contract with the IBT. FedEx is building a larger capacity automated ground network as we speak with much of it to be completed by mid to late next year just in time to exploit the fears of shippers as UPS and the IBT continue to sit on their hands and wait until the last minute to work on a contract. This next contract will have so many big issues to address and here we sit doing nothing while FedEx sharpens it's carving knives and licking it's chops waiting to feast.</p><p> </p><p>Fed Ex on the ground side in it's larger facility network is/will have a newer and much more efficent internal package processing system whereas UPS is dealing with a vastly older facilites network footprint and in some of these cases the surrounding environs no longer yeilds the density of packages as it once did as this community has moved further away and FedEx has capitilized on this somewhat by now placing itself where the density is. Not only do they position themselves for a potentially lower total fuel cost as a result, they are also getting in position to tell some customers that they can offer a 8:30 pm or later pickup because they are down the street in a new, efficent, high speed processing facility whereas UPS is 20 miles away through redlights and traffic and thus it's latest pickup time is 7:30 pm if not earlier and the building it returns to is 70's, 60's if not older technology that is not high speed and requires more human power than machine power thus again driving up costs. Whether UPS decides to meet FDX head on in the automated pacakge processing side is open to debate but the one thing that is a truism is the old physical buildings and systems of UPS's network verses FDX's and the old saying of location, location, location. Over the coming years UPS will begin to have to address this issue on the domestic ground side and thus is will either have to curtail it's air and global expansion, take a hit on it's net EPS to both maintain the air/global expansion while upgrading the domestic ground network or sitback and maintain the status quo and take the hit from FDX that we'll likely see as a result and hope the hit isn't to hard.</p><p> </p><p>Wall Street is seeing this larger upside potential for FedEx too and one of the reasons their stock is doing so much better than ours. However, the last coupe of weeks has seen FedEx stumble a little while we continue a slow steady upward pace. I don't see us displacing FedEx in the area of stock price with FedEx having a ttm EPS of $5 plus while UPS for the ttm EPS is $3 plus and the PE is FDX 21 and UPS 23 so IMO unless UPS throws down a really awesome number I don't see UPS closing the gap to much unless FDX stumbles. If we do have good numbers on Thursday and the economy and shipping continue the pace it's at along with the markets I do believe over the next weeks to month or so we will see UPS surpass it's alltime high of $87 per share back in Dec. 04' but that also hinges on the fact we don't shoot ourselves in the foot either. Based on the current and future EPS along with both trailing and forward PE I just see FDX continuing to out do us stock price wise unless they stumble or we blow away the numbers and I don't see that either.</p><p> </p><p>JMO.</p><p> </p><p>I also can't believe there isn't 10k posts about stock splits either!</p><p><img src="/community/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/group1/lol.gif" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":lol:" title="Lol :lol:" data-shortname=":lol:" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="wkmac, post: 86372, member: 2189"] It will be interesting to see what the results are on Thursday. My biggest concern going forward especially into the summer months is fuel prices. Each of us has seen the latest rapid upward price per gallon and many estimates are saying well over $3 per gallon nationwide average price and that's without any storm realted disruptions like we had last summer. I think this and to my knowledge, the yet unsettled UPS pilot's contract will continue to be a drag on our stock allowing FedEx to continue to out perform us on Wall Street. I also think lagging in the back of investors mind's is the pending 2008' contract with the IBT. FedEx is building a larger capacity automated ground network as we speak with much of it to be completed by mid to late next year just in time to exploit the fears of shippers as UPS and the IBT continue to sit on their hands and wait until the last minute to work on a contract. This next contract will have so many big issues to address and here we sit doing nothing while FedEx sharpens it's carving knives and licking it's chops waiting to feast. Fed Ex on the ground side in it's larger facility network is/will have a newer and much more efficent internal package processing system whereas UPS is dealing with a vastly older facilites network footprint and in some of these cases the surrounding environs no longer yeilds the density of packages as it once did as this community has moved further away and FedEx has capitilized on this somewhat by now placing itself where the density is. Not only do they position themselves for a potentially lower total fuel cost as a result, they are also getting in position to tell some customers that they can offer a 8:30 pm or later pickup because they are down the street in a new, efficent, high speed processing facility whereas UPS is 20 miles away through redlights and traffic and thus it's latest pickup time is 7:30 pm if not earlier and the building it returns to is 70's, 60's if not older technology that is not high speed and requires more human power than machine power thus again driving up costs. Whether UPS decides to meet FDX head on in the automated pacakge processing side is open to debate but the one thing that is a truism is the old physical buildings and systems of UPS's network verses FDX's and the old saying of location, location, location. Over the coming years UPS will begin to have to address this issue on the domestic ground side and thus is will either have to curtail it's air and global expansion, take a hit on it's net EPS to both maintain the air/global expansion while upgrading the domestic ground network or sitback and maintain the status quo and take the hit from FDX that we'll likely see as a result and hope the hit isn't to hard. Wall Street is seeing this larger upside potential for FedEx too and one of the reasons their stock is doing so much better than ours. However, the last coupe of weeks has seen FedEx stumble a little while we continue a slow steady upward pace. I don't see us displacing FedEx in the area of stock price with FedEx having a ttm EPS of $5 plus while UPS for the ttm EPS is $3 plus and the PE is FDX 21 and UPS 23 so IMO unless UPS throws down a really awesome number I don't see UPS closing the gap to much unless FDX stumbles. If we do have good numbers on Thursday and the economy and shipping continue the pace it's at along with the markets I do believe over the next weeks to month or so we will see UPS surpass it's alltime high of $87 per share back in Dec. 04' but that also hinges on the fact we don't shoot ourselves in the foot either. Based on the current and future EPS along with both trailing and forward PE I just see FDX continuing to out do us stock price wise unless they stumble or we blow away the numbers and I don't see that either. JMO. I also can't believe there isn't 10k posts about stock splits either! :lol: [/QUOTE]
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