Time Studies and Work Measurement Allowances

[Catatonic]

Originally Posted by pretzel_man
Okay. Rather than a new thread, I'll post here.....

The new program focuses on the two most variable areas (other than travel). They are walks and delivery type.

For each residential stop the time study person looks at a satellite map of the delivery point. They look at where stop complete happened. If its not accurate, they move it (for instance if the driver pushed stop complete at the vehicle). This marks the end of the walk to the delivery location. They then mark a point at the middle of the street. The computer measures the amount of feet from the center of the street to the delivery point.

Yes, I know that you don't always walk a direct line to the delivery point. You also don't always walk from the center of the street.

The system remembers these points and more samples can be added by adding more delivery days or stops. Rather than using just a single day that can't be validated, now the data is saved and can easily be audited. It also uses exact distance measured instead of walk classifications that are estimated by an observer.

The process I mentioned is faster to do than the old process and the information is saved. If a new neighborhood is added, only that neighborhood needs to be sampled.

What I mentioned works for residential deliveries. For commercial deliveries, each building type is classified. There are about 5 or 6 classifications and each has a seperate allowance. Again, the information is saved and auditable.

Other items like COD, Signature, etc. are added in based on an allowance for those individual items and that data comes from the DIAD.

As I mentioned, based on the above, it doesn't matter how fast or slow you go, they are only measuring the area. So, each piece of geography is put into a unit. All the stops in the unit and all the planned time for the unit is added up. They then divide the stops into the planned time to come up with a stop allowance for the unit. The same happens for packages to give a package allowance.

This is a very high level overview of the process.

P-Man

With the discussions concerning "Time Studies and Work Measurement Allowances" this jewel from the past might help everyone understand it a little bit better.

 

[Anonymous 10]

Everyday is different.
It took as long as it took.
There are no production standards at ups.

 

[JonFrum]

A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link.

The more I read about UPS measuring techniques and how they interpret the results, the more I think it is pseudo-science, not real science.

Everything UPS says seems to be a mixture of scientifically valid measuring and sampling techinques, with a healthy dose of Voodoo thrown in, which makes the result invalid.

In addition to all the usual Math courses in high school, I took a year of Statistics and Probability Theory in college. UPS' techniques seem to be very sloppy versions of the valid methods real scientists use. But to properly critique their methods, I would have to see their procedures spelled out in detail. That's why I wish the Teamsters would obtain the formulas and have an outside group of experts review the entire program. I can see all sorts of flaws and limitations, some of them admitted to, but evaluating a program over the Internet based on only the snipits that are posted is inadequate.

 

[Catatonic]

A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link.

The more I read about UPS measuring techniques and how they interpret the results, the more I think it is pseudo-science, not real science.

Everything UPS says seems to be a mixture of scientifically valid measuring and sampling techinques, with a healthy dose of Voodoo thrown in, which makes the result invalid.

In addition to all the usual Math courses in high school, I took a year of Statistics and Probability Theory in college. UPS' techniques seem to be very sloppy versions of the valid methods real scientists use. But to properly critique their methods, I would have to see their procedures spelled out in detail. That's why I wish the Teamsters would obtain the formulas and have an outside group of experts review the entire program. I can see all sorts of flaws and limitations, some of them admitted to, but evaluating a program over the Internet based on only the snipits that are posted is inadequate.

UPS work measurement methods are not scientific and neither is Statistics and Probability.
Statistics and Probability by their very nature are not reproducible which is one of the cornerstones of the Scientific Method.
Try again.

 

[pretzel_man]

A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link.

The more I read about UPS measuring techniques and how they interpret the results, the more I think it is pseudo-science, not real science.

Everything UPS says seems to be a mixture of scientifically valid measuring and sampling techinques, with a healthy dose of Voodoo thrown in, which makes the result invalid.

In addition to all the usual Math courses in high school, I took a year of Statistics and Probability Theory in college. UPS' techniques seem to be very sloppy versions of the valid methods real scientists use. But to properly critique their methods, I would have to see their procedures spelled out in detail. That's why I wish the Teamsters would obtain the formulas and have an outside group of experts review the entire program. I can see all sorts of flaws and limitations, some of them admitted to, but evaluating a program over the Internet based on only the snipits that are posted is inadequate.

UPS is seen as world class by this group:

http://www.iienet2.org/Default.aspx

They have degrees (Bachelors, Masters) in the subject.

P-Man

 

[tourists24]

UPS is seen as world class by this group:

http://www.iienet2.org/Default.aspx

They have degrees (Bachelors, Masters) in the subject.

P-Man

nice to know Pman, but the data isnt exact, so it should only be used as a tool. Not as the entire reason in determining how fast someone should be doing a route.

 

[Catatonic]

nice to know Pman, but the data isnt exact, so it should only be used as a tool. Not as the entire reason in determining how fast someone should be doing a route.

Exactly ... Work Measurement is a tool that is used to develop a standard that a driver can be held to ... within the limits of the measurement 95% - 95% of the time.

 

[JonFrum]

UPS work measurement methods are not scientific and neither is Statistics and Probability.
Statistics and Probability by their very nature are not reproducible which is one of the cornerstones of the Scientific Method.
Try again.

Thank you for admiting that, "UPS work measurement methods are not scientific . . ." I'll add that to the list of other admissions.

Statistics and Probability Theory are not part of the Facts of Science, they are techniques of Analyzing Scientific Facts and determining what the Facts are in the first place. The course techniques tell how to validly analyize, and how not to. All published scientific experiments and studies are filled with statistical analysis. There is no Science without it.

 

[Catatonic]

Thank you for admiting that, "UPS work measurement methods are not scientific . . ." I'll add that to the list of other admissions.

Statistics and Probability Theory are not part of the Facts of Science, they are techniques of Analyzing Scientific Facts and determining what the Facts are in the first place. The course techniques tell how to validly analyize, and how not to. All published scientific experiments and studies are filled with statistical analysis. There is no Science without it.

That's better ... Probability and Statistics are tools used by scientists but they are not part of the Scientific Method.

 

[JonFrum]

Exactly ... Work Measurement is a tool that is used to develop a standard that a driver can be held to ... within the limits of the measurement 95% - 95% of the time.

Nonsense.

One example:

A Supervisor gives a three-day ride to a driver who delivers a package to a little old lady five days a week. On Monday she takes ten seconds to answer the door, on Tuesday twenty seconds, on Wednesday thirty seconds. The average is twenty right? Well, yes and no. It's twenty for those three days, but is doesn't predict that she is out shopping on Thursday, or at the Doctors on Friday. You see, the three day average was validly calculated, but applying it to predict Thursday and Friday's situation is BOGUS.

 

[tourists24]

Its kinda like using origins science to prove evolution. Its not true science like operational science, but they act like it is to prove they're right

 

[JonFrum]

That's better ... Probability and Statistics are tools used by scientists but they are not part of the Scientific Method.

They are the Scientific Method. Violate their principles and you are not doing Science. You're into pseudo-science.

 

[tourists24]

They are the Scientific Method. Violate their pronciples and you are not doing Science. You're into pseudo-science.

yep, Probabilty and stats can be skewed to make it show what you want it to. Unless you are actually out there on the road no computer program or satellite can do better

 

[Catatonic]

They are the Scientific Method. Violate their pronciples and you are not doing Science. You're into pseudo-science.

Google scientific Method and look at the principles and you will see (maybe) that Statistics and Probability do not qualify.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

Nonsense.

One example:

A Supervisor gives a three-day ride to a driver who delivers a package to a little old lady five days a week. On Monday she takes ten seconds to answer the door, on Tuesday twenty seconds, on Wednesday thirty seconds. The average is twenty right? Well, yes and no. It's twenty for those three days, but is doesn't predict that she is out shopping on Thursday, or at the Doctors on Friday. You see, the three day average was validly calculated, but applying it to predict Thursday and Friday's situation is BOGUS.

The flaw in your scenario is the wait time for Granny to answer the door. We are taught to knock, drop, and go. This is also why we are taught to beep the horn two houses before reaching the address being delivered. The DR location is selected while walking (directly) from the PC to the entry door, which may or may not be the front door. If the route is being run by the regular driver than the DR location is known ahead of time based upon experience. A sharp knock on the door, placement of the package (if small, put between the storm and entry door, ensuring the storm is securely closed), and walk back to the PC.

In the time you are waiting for Granny to answer the door I am already off to my next stop. I can't tell you how many times I have delivered the package and started the PC as the homeowner has just answered the door. Let's say that this takes 15 seconds. Multiply that 15 seconds by the 60 residential stops I have each day and that is 15 minutes wasted waiting for someone to answer a door. This is why your lack of experience in delivery precludes you from speaking intelligently on the subject. Stick to pensions and contracts.

Now, if the package is such that Granny may need help getting it in to the house, I would most certainly wait until she answered the door and ask if I could put it in the house for her. I can easily make up that time elsewhere in my day. However, if it small, it is knock, drop and go.

If you were to be my Peak helper and you stood and waited at someone's door for them to answer I would quickly and firmly correct that behavior. If uncorrected I would call the center and tell them to come get you as you are slowing me down. Knock, drop and go.

 

[browniehound]

Thanks for the insight P-man. I had an idea about how the new time studies worked but never as in-depth as you just described it. Also, when I first heard of the new time studies I didn't believe the technology could be the accurate. However, I was 5 minutes earlytppick up a letter box so I did an experiment. If you choose 8 or 9 (not sure which one)from the communications menu on the DIAD (there is no title for 8 or 9, you just have to press it) it will give your latitude and longitude up to like 8 decimal places. So sure enough I checked it at the letter box and then walked about 10 steps and the numbers changed.

I had no idea the GPS was this accurate!

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

Thanks for the insight P-man. I had an idea about how the new time studies worked but never as in-depth as you just described it. Also, when I first heard of the new time studies I didn't believe the technology could be the accurate. However, I was 5 minutes earlytppick up a letter box so I did an experiment. If you choose 8 or 9 (not sure which one)from the communications menu on the DIAD (there is no title for 8 or 9, you just have to press it) it will give your latitude and longitude up to like 8 decimal places. So sure enough I checked it at the letter box and then walked about 10 steps and the numbers changed.

I had no idea the GPS was this accurate!

I am glad you mentioned drop boxes. We have drivers who think they can fool the system by picking up the box early and then key entering the drop box ID in to the DIAD.

 

[hellfire]

if the time studies use a tangible and absolute equal formula for every route,,company wide there should no problem allowing the hourly to view the formula...ive lost alot of bonus and money after a button was pushed on a comp reducing my allowance,,i would love to see the ACTUAL math used

 

[pretzel_man]

nice to know Pman, but the data isnt exact, so it should only be used as a tool. Not as the entire reason in determining how fast someone should be doing a route.

I agree. Its not an exact science. 15 minutes overallowed on one day, 15 minutes underallowed on the following day may be the exact same performance. However, add up a weeks worth of time and look at trends and it works better. Add up all the drivers in the center for a day and its more precise.

One more thing.... The underlying data for the most part does not come from UPS. UPS uses a "predetermined time system". I think the one used is called MTM. Here is a quick link that explains some of it:

faculty.mercer.edu/moody_le/documents/PTSfulllecture.ppt

There are many other links out there for MTM or pre-determined time systems or MTM. I'm not 100% sure that this is the one UPS uses since I have been out of I.E. for 15 years.

P-Man

 

[pretzel_man]

if the time studies use a tangible and absolute equal formula for every route,,company wide there should no problem allowing the hourly to view the formula...ive lost alot of bonus and money after a button was pushed on a comp reducing my allowance,,i would love to see the ACTUAL math used

Hellfire:

At one time, I was a manager in a district I.E. department. Prior to that, I was an operator in multiple buildings.

When I got to I.E., I held workshops to teach hourly personnel how the bonus system and work measurement was calculated. The B.A. would attend those meetings as well. Not everyone liked the answers, but at least they knew how it worked. Like it or not, they couldn't say they didn't know.

The B.A. and I were never buddies, but at least I believe this drove a mutual respect.

The bottom line is that I agree with you. I do not know I.E.'s current stance on this, but it seems logical to me that explaining the process and calculations can only help. I don't know what would happen if you or the local asked I.E. to show the system. I would hope that they would welcome the discussion. I know that I would.

P-Man