Tired of shoveling?

Discussion in 'Life After Brown' started by Sleeve_meet_Heart, Feb 17, 2010.

  1. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Not sure where else to post this, but since many UPSers along the east coast are dealing with an impressive winter, it's time (for me anyway) to start digging up some science and seeing what "could" happen as we end winter.

    First of all, a massive -NAO block will be occuring in the coming week-two.

    What is the NAO? Laymens - It is a statistical climate indice used to measure upper-air temperatures between Greenland and the Azores. When positive, it generally indicates lower than normal temperatures at the 500mb level (roughly 18k feet ASL). When negative, it indicates warmer than normal temperatures at 500mb.

    When we talk about a NAO block regime, it is generally presumed that the block manifests itself as a semi-permanent fixture - and can maintain itself by ways of other global anomalies persisting in other areas.

    This coming -NAO block is not dissimilar to blocks we have seen this winter, previously in Mid-December (rememeber the record cold for parts of the mid-south?) and also january early Feb ( recall the massive winter storms several weeks ago across MD/VA/PA)

    What happens is, the NAO block itself does not cause the storm. The changes in itself, upward or downward movement in the observed indicies, can be an early indicator that an event will occur. There has been extensive research, both at M.S and PHD level done by Heather Archambault that goes in depth. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/research.htm

    Bottom line , there is a high likelyhood of at least one high-precipitation event , possibliy two, to affect the east coast between February 25th and March 10th. A recovery in the index, possibly a rubber-band snap upwards in the NAO in early March, may ultimately be the contributor. Something to watch for!

    [​IMG]
     
  2. PT Stewie

    PT Stewie "Big Fella"

    Gee. I am glad I fixed the belt on my snow blower.The hardware store sold me the last one that would fit my machine.
     
  3. trplnkl

    trplnkl 555

    So you're saying there is a better than average chance that there will be two more snow storms on the east side of the country????
     
  4. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Much better than average.

    I'd say there is a 50% chance of a major winter storm , and 20% chance of a crippling , extreme event, for someone north of the Ohio River , delmarva, and east of the MS river.

    There is also a fair chance of a snow/ice event , though probably not too severe, in the southern plains/mid MS valley

    I'll explain in detail tomorrow when/if more information comes in. Should be fun times ahead. :happy-very:
     
  5. over9five

    over9five Moderator Staff Member

    Bring it on! I hope it occurs during the week, white gold!!!
     
  6. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    As you wish!

    NWS Taunton gun-shy at this point, and why not after last weeks epic bust....but it's almost painful to read the area forecast discussion...

    LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
    MAINLY DRY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
    SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF BKN STRATOCU WILL PERSIST
    HOWEVER...AND THIS WILL OFFER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER
    THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

    MONDAY APPEARS TOP BE KIND OF A TRANSITION DAY AS WE GET SQUEEZED IN
    BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE MARITIMES
    AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
    FOR A DECENT DAY ON MONDAY WITH SNE GENERALLY UNDERNEATH SHORT WAVE
    RIDGING. WE EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
    THAT WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

    THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE IN TERMS OF EXACT
    TIMING OF POPS...PRECIP TYPE...AND QPF. HOWEVER...WE ARE PRETTY
    CONFIDENT IN THAT AT LEAST ONE COASTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL DELIVER
    INCLEMENT CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND
    WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.


    THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
    DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF LARGER SCALE FIELDS DURING THE MIDWEEK
    PERIOD. HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT
    DOESN/T MEAN THEY WILL BE RIGHT.
    THE INTERACTION OF STREAMS AND
    SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO PIN
    DOWN...THEREFORE...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE
    NEXT FEW DAYS.

    A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME ASHORE IN SOUTHERN
    CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLUNG ALL THE WAY TO THE
    EAST COAST BY SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
    AND LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT ON THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW
    FOR PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT
    OR EARLY TUESDAY.

    HOW MUCH THIS NEW LOW WANTS TO ORGANIZE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS NOT
    REALLY KNOWN AT THIS TIME
    ...AS THIS WILL DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE IN A
    LOT OF AREAS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY. A
    WEAKER REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO MAY NOT STOP DRY SLOTTING AND A GOOD
    AMOUNT OF WARMING TO REACH EVEN THE FAR INTERIOR. FOR NOW...WILL GO
    WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO LIKELY ON TUESDAY. MOST
    LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE SNOW AT THE START EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
    IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WE FEEL THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARMER LOW AND
    MID LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY WORK INTO A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
    LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG OF
    PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR NW INTERIOR. HOWEVER...VERY LOW
    CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES ATTM.
    HOWEVER...CURRENT
    INDICATIONS ARE THAT A DECENT SLUG OF SNOW...PROBABLY PLOWABLE...IS
    IN STORE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHER
    CONFIDENCE EXISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.

    AFTER TUESDAY DAYTIME...THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE FUZZY AS LARGE
    NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRIES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
    GREAT LAKES AND ATTEMPTS TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
    WAVE RESULTING IN A SECOND ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY
    INTO THURSDAY. THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO COMES WITH IT/S OWN BAG OF
    UNCERTAINTY AS WELL.


    THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A
    PROLONGED ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER MIDWEEK...INCLUDING ALL PRECIP TYPE
    POSSIBILTIES...RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET.
    HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW. WE WILL TRY TO IRON OUT THE
    DETAILS THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND.

    &&


    HPC is off the deep end here, as far as the northeast, not sure about midwest/upper plains, down to TX?? LA??

    2Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE STRONGLY CONVERGED ON THEIR PATTERN
    E OF THE ROCKIES DAYS 4-7 CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
    POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOWSTORM WED NIGHT/THU FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND
    ESPECIALLY NEW ENG.
    HELPING TO ACHIEVE THIS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
    WERE MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT SUN/MON...DAYS 2-3...IN
    TURNING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE N AROUND THE W SIDE OF A BLOCKING HIGH
    INSTEAD OF TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE BLOCK AS SOME WERE DOING IN
    YESTERDAYS RUNS.

    00Z/19 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS HAD SHOWN THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/19
    ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY OVER THE
    SWRN CONUS THU DAY 6....AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS/UKMET FAMILY OF
    SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z/19 GFS/UKMET FAMILY OF S SOLUTIONS (TOWARD
    WHICH 12Z/19 MODELS HAVE CONVERGED) HAD THE MAIN SRN STREAM SYS
    CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATES WED NIGHT. THIS WAS MORE IN LINE
    WITH YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUNS. THE 00Z/19 GFS/UKMET ALSO SHOWED
    ENERGY DROPPING S OUT OF A NRN CANADIAN VORTEX BY THU.

    ONE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY ENE TO THE E COAST DAYS 3-4
    AND SHOULD BRING A MODERATE SNOW EVENT TO THE UPPER OH VLY ACROSS
    NE PA TO SRN NEW ENG.
    FARTHER S...MOSTLY A RA EVENT IS EXPECTED.
    HOWEVER...SLOW DEPARTURE OF A NEWFOUNDLAND LOW EARLY MON COULD
    DELAY A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WITH THIS SYS ALONG THE MASON DIXON
    LINE AND POINTS S. FOR NOW THOUGH..WE ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR
    MOSTLY RA WITH THIS SYS MON BELOW THE MD/PA BORDER. FOR
    TUE...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS SRN NEW ENG.

    A BETTER THREAT FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM COMES FROM THE NEXT SRN
    STREAM WAVE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN STATES TUE INTO EARLY
    THU...AT THE SAME TIME THAT A POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SWD
    FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IN FAR NRN CANADA. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS
    NEXT SRN STREAM SYS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE BY NEW 12Z/19 MODELS. THE
    STRONG SRN STREAM SYS COULD ALSO HELP LAY DOWN A STRIPE OF HEAVY
    SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP S FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS EWD
    TREK TO THE SE COAST.
    WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON THE NERN STREAM
    CLOSING OFF OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AND MID ATLANTIC BY THU DAY
    6...THE STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE MID
    ATLANTIC/NEW ENG.


    W OF THE ROCKIES...THE W COAST BECOME RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE MEAN
    RIDGE NEAR THE W COAST OF NOAM WEAKENS. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLIES
    WILL IMPINGE ALONG THE W COAST FROM CA NWD FROM DAY 5 ONWARD
    GIVING HEAVY OROGRAPHIC PCPN. TIMING OF THESE W COAST SHORTWAVES
    BEYOND DAY 5 IS BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

    FLOOD


    Exciting times, ahead.
     
  7. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    I nailed that one. Winter storm warnings flying throughout KS into the upper midwest, Michigan, etc.

    A near or historic blizzard could occur for interior south, central and/or northern New England Thu-Fri. 18-50" of snow falling. Odds 40% or up to 50%. At least 70% chance of a major winter storm with 12-24" falling in that area, con-mht-een-orh-baf-hfd-dan especially foothills/mtns.
     
  8. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Good luck and take care of the roads this week all you UPS'ers. Glad I'm not driving again until June 15th, hopefully the snow/glacier is melted by then.
     
  9. PT Stewie

    PT Stewie "Big Fella"

    nowstorm timeline: Thursday AM
    by Jonathan Erdman , on Feb 23, 2010 2:16 pm ET
    A major snowstorm is once again targeting the Northeast beginning Thursday, continuing into Friday.
    Way to go SMH you called it.You're going to be very popular.
     
  10. feederdriver06

    feederdriver06 former monkey slave

    shoveling is a good physical workout. doesnt bother me to have to shovel. Snow also gives me overtime. Last storm I sat on central sort for 5 hours waiting for my load to leave with.
     
  11. over9five

    over9five Moderator Staff Member

    Holy Crap, I'm at 14 inches at my house and it's still coming down (lightly). When I left Chema this morning about 5:30 there was maybe a slushy inch there.

    Not looking forward to my ride into sw NH with an empty tonight.....
     
  12. Funfact

    Funfact Well-Known Member

    Got about 20 + in here thank god for the snowblower. I'm laid off so I think I'll go skiing tomorrow and friday. Would have today but the wife stayed home.
     
  13. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Thanks. No one gives credit when you have a good forecast, but ones that get you popularity are the bad ones! :D
     
  14. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    6" here at the house, yet there was between 12 and 18" all throughout towns 5-10 miles west of here. Also down to Over9s neck of the woods.

    Tomorrow the real deal, big game in town arrives. At least 12" if not 24"+ throughout portions NYS and PA. NYC will probably see 3-6", interior NJ will see at least 8". Which is great, as it fits into my Feb 25-March 10th timeline.

    ALSO : Very large storm possible next week! Possibly mid-south, applalachians, mid-atlantic and new england. rising -NAO/+PNA handshake is basically a lock for something important.

    Time for work!
     
  15. Monkey Butt

    Monkey Butt You can call me Chappy Staff Member

    Good use of your imposed leisure time ... no sense in sitting around the house.
     
  16. Jones

    Jones fILE A GRIEVE! Staff Member

    We dodged the bullet here, it swung north of us last night and all we got was a little rain.
    They're getting pounded up in Philly though.
     
  17. rod

    rod retired and happy

    Its getting late in the season now---------just let it melt
     
  18. toonertoo

    toonertoo Most Awesome Dog Staff Member

     
  19. toonertoo

    toonertoo Most Awesome Dog Staff Member


    Ahh yes it was you.
     
  20. over9five

    over9five Moderator Staff Member

    Yes! I want it in Package tho, definitely NOT in Feeders!