UPS volumes and current/future state of US economy

Floridacargocat · 12-07-2007, 01:08 PM

Based on current information, there are some conflicting news:
- improvements in labour statistics
- increase in home foreclosures
- pick-up truck manufacture temporrary closures from X-mas to end January (source Wallstreet Journal via Spiegel
http://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/0...521916,00.html
only in German) for GMC, Chrysler and Ford (please look at the WSJ for the actual news item, as Spiegel has quoted from them)
- recovery plan for mortages,
what is your outlook for the first quarter regarding UPS volumes to be moved?
Will we see higher or lower domestic volumes?

freeloader · 12-07-2007, 02:39 PM

My prediction for 1Q08 is lower volume because that's the way its always been. The only upturn in volume for 1Q will be for Valentine's day.

Speaking of mortgages and foreclosures; remember that 10-15 year run where real estate just kept skyrocketing and interest rates kept dropping? Mortgage brokers made tons off people re-financing and cashing in on their equity. Real estate agents made tons off people upgrading to bigger houses. Mortgage brokers made even more when these buyers overspent and chose interest-only & adjustable rate mortgages. People could not resist the urge to either cash in their equity or over spend on a new home. Now it is coming back to haunt them and they cannot unload their property because the market is dry.

Anyways, my point is, if people hadn't went nuts with the re-fi's and the interest-only mortgages, they wouldn't be in this position now. I easily racked up over 100k of equity in my house in just a couple years when the real estate market peaked. I could have re-financed, cashed in my equity and went and bought a Hummer and took a cruise around the world but I didn't. Call me skeptical, but I just had a feeling if I did something like that it would come back and bite me later.

The current state of the real estate market is just a correction of the many years of double-digit growth. It was bound to slow down sooner or later.

scratch · 12-07-2007, 03:57 PM

My Helper this year is a real estate agent, thats how bad that business is. She is running into people desperate to unload their houses for 100K under market value. Housing is cheap around here compared to other parts of the country. Freeloader made some great points about people buying more house than they could afford. The realty market is expected to be even worse next year. If you can sell your house, it is possible to find some unbelievable deals out there.

tieguy · 12-07-2007, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freeloader

Speaking of mortgages and foreclosures; remember that 10-15 year run where real estate just kept skyrocketing and interest rates kept dropping? Mortgage brokers made tons off people re-financing and cashing in on their equity. Real estate agents made tons off people upgrading to bigger houses. Mortgage brokers made even more when these buyers overspent and chose interest-only & adjustable rate mortgages. People could not resist the urge to either cash in their equity or over spend on a new home. Now it is coming back to haunt them and they cannot unload their property because the market is dry.

I agree that they have to be able to afford it. But overall you have to agree that real estate has been a good investment?

magoo57 · 12-07-2007, 07:42 PM

Sure, real estate is a good investment. A mutual fund doesn't help keep the rain off of you.

rod · 12-07-2007, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tieguy

I agree that they have to be able to afford it. But overall you have to agree that real estate has been a good investment?

The key word in your statement is "has" as in used to be- not now and not for a long time unless you can afford to set on a piece of property . ( kind of like UPS stock) The few areas of the country that are still experiencing a healthy real estate market will see that come to an end also. I have spoken!!

25yrvet · 12-07-2007, 10:28 PM

Out West we are experiencing an energy boooom, so in this area we have very low unemployment. If you have a clean driving record & pass a drug test there is no reason you can't get a job for 20+ an hour---very good wages for this area since the cost of living is comparativley low. Lottsa people from Mich moving out here. So in this region there WILL be growth, but IMHO, just the opposite for the rest of the country.