Stock Price

Once the company is able to pinpoint the reasons for the missed projection, they should publically state them, even if negative. This should help take the current uncertainty out of the stock price. No doubt the market will give greater scrutiny to future earnings projections. It appears the market views UPS as the bellweather stock of the Dow Jones Transportation Index and as one of the barometers of the overall domestic economy, as part of the GDP passes through the delivery network each day. Bad volume projections are currently being interpreted by the market as either unforeseen weakness in the general economy and/or as an erosion of market share to the competition. Either way, once bad data is exposed, the market will punish the stock. Furthermore, given the above, IMO, the stock will probably see increased volitility in the future. The days of the stock trading in a sideways pattern over the first few years of public life are probably over for the time being. It will be interesting to see how the downside breakaway gap on the stock price chart fills over time.

Subject: [retiredups] Analyst reports


NEW YORK, January 28 (newratings.com) – Analysts at Robert W Baird reiterate
their "outperform" rating on United Parcel Service (UPS.NYS). The target price
has been reduced from $94 to $89.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the
company reported its 4Q04 earnings in-line with its disappointing
pre-announcement. The company plans to aggressively reduce its expenses and accelerate its
middle-market sales initiatives this year, Robert W Baird says. The current
valuation of United Parcel Service's stock is attractive, the analysts believe.
************************************************** ****************************
************
NEW YORK, January 28 (newratings.com) - Analysts at UBS reiterate their
"neutral" rating on UPS (UPS.NYS). The target price has been reduced from $92 to
$85.
************************************************** ****************************
**************
NEW YORK, January 28 (newratings.com) - In a research note published
yesterday, analysts at Raymond James reiterate their "outperform" rating on United
Parcel Service (UPS.NYS), while reducing their estimates for the company. The
target price has been reduced to $78.00.
************************************************** ****************************
********************
NEW YORK, January 28 (newratings.com) - In a research note published
yesterday, analysts at Morgan Keegan maintain their "market perform" rating on United
Parcel Service (UPS.NYS), while revising their estimates for the company

Can someone please explain to me what they mean by saying "outperform" and the other phrases used by analysts?

The standard benchmark to beat or "outperform" the market is the S&P 500. "Market perform" means it should roughly track the progress of the S&P 500. "Neutral" means to watch the stock because of its current unsettled short-term outlook. These are my own definitions and not anything official.

Personally, I'd rather look at a price chart and make my own determinations. Unfortunately, the short-term trend for the stock is down and it looks weak on the chart. It appears the price of the stock will probably drift a bit until it finds a new price equilibrium. Once that level is found, buying opportunities should present themselves. Long term support should be found around the $70 level. JMHO.

Outperform
An analyst recommendation meaning a stock is expected to do slightly better than the market return.



Exact definitions vary by brokerage, but in general this rating is better than neutral and worse than buy or strong buy.

Also known as market outperform, moderate buy, or accumulate.

Wow, that was some recovery today. If we'd had another 15 or 20 mins. of market time, we'd have been positive.

Wonder if they got a rumor from the board meeting?

up 2% today. Any ideas why?

This is all I found, but don't know what it means.

"1:44PM 200 Day-Alert -- UPS extends range breakout, pushes toward resistance at its 200 day sma of 76.21 (UPS) 76.06 +1.09: -- Technical -- "

1

The 200 day moving average calculation is at the 76.21 level. Once the price breaks above this level, it may be considered as a buy signal. The stock price has been trading in a sideaways channel since the earnings figures were released on January 27th. Oddly enough, the trading range of that session seemed to set the channel over these past two weeks or so of trading. Who knows what the reason for the buying is, although sometimes one institutional buyer steps in and buys a large block of shares and others see that and think something is up and it creates its own little feeding frenzy. Not saying that's what happening today, but it could be, given the fact that there is no real news to trade on today.

I have also looked and can find no reason for this spike. My guess is the same as yours, just some big buyer decides to buy and the wall street sheep follow.

GO SHEEP !! BAAAAAAAAH !!

Over 5M shares traded today. Much more than usual. I used to have a program showed how many shares traded and at what time they traded. If we had a program like that now it might shed a little light on why it went up today. Anyone know where we can get such a program?

Over 6 million today. Up more than 5% the last two days. I'm happy but it would be interesting to know who's doing the buying.

Some of the buying could be triggered with resting stop orders above the trading channel, aka - program trading. My guess the buyers are probably the same ones who sold it when it dropped before.

<hr width=75% size=2>Buy sheep/Sell deer.

the ride feels good. Even if there is no reason for it.

Could it be the conpany buying back stock?

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the company is active in the market buying and selling its own shares to try keep the stock price relatively stable, much like what the Federal Reserve does when it buys and sells dollars against world currencies.

I would think some of this upward ride is due to shorts covering their positions.

I think it is NevadaPaul. I remember reading some months back that UPS was ready to buy back $4 billion worth of stock. But it may also be the shorts covering, like upscorpis says.

Found this on the web today.

UPS is also drumming up some attention among options players, as about 4,000 contracts have changed hands today on the out-of-the-money April 80 call. As this strike was previously home to more than 17,500 open positions, these could be either liquidations or additions. The SOIR for UPS hit an annual high of 1.30 in mid-January before plunging dramatically at January options expiration. In the subsequent weeks, this indicator has reversed higher and currently stands at 0.85, in the 82nd annual percentile. The equity's short-interest picture continues to reveal signs of pessimism. There are 19 million UPS shares sold short, the highest reading since January 2004. It would take the bears more than nine days of trading at the stock's average daily volume to cover all of these bets in the event of continued strength in the shares. This bullishly configured short-interest scenario, combined with strong long-term price action and average options activity has helped earn UPS a Schaeffer's Gold Score http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/pr...old091404.aspx of 8.5 out of a possible 10.0.

(Message edited by retired on February 16, 2005)

Great but what the heck does all that mean?

That's the sad part. Regular investors like myself have no clue what all that means and our investments can be terrribly damaged by people playing "what if" games.

Just returned from Las Vegas. I was watching the action (UPS) but could find nothing in print as to the reason. Last night on the "red eye" back I read an interesting article in Barons where the boys at UPS convinced the writers that their cost cutting was on track and that the overseas profits looked good. Also, the first quarter P&amp;L would be a bit off due to a different way revenue is recognized and that would have a positive effect in the fourth quarter. The house mentioned (don't remember which one) had UPS at an "out perform" and a target of $90 at years end.

Best part of all this is that I am sitting on a total of 50 option contracts varying from $75 to $80 and from July 05 to Jan 06.

Call me

PS: I actually broke even in Vegas this week!

Anybody out there looking at the stock price? We are down over 17% from a few months ago, what gives? this is killing me.