Nervous?

[UpsSuP1]

Just wondering how everyone feels about the way the economy is going. We had a meeting today about cutting cost, and I hear rumors of lay offs and things of that nature..Any one nervous?......

[outamyway]

We've had quite a few people here fired for some dumb crap. In most cases these people would get their jobs back or not be fired at all. But because of our lack of union support I doubt we will see any of them return.

I top out next week, so I may have a target on my back. I keep my nose clean but it looks like they're looking for any excuse.

[westsideworma]

Originally Posted by UpsSuP1

Just wondering how everyone feels about the way the economy is going. We had a meeting today about cutting cost, and I hear rumors of lay offs and things of that nature..Any one nervous?......

don't worry! the economy stimulus checks are coming soon!!

however yeah its getting really bad, its all I hear drivers talk about now....I sure hope it gets better soon.

[dannyboy]

To your question on the economy, that is a real interesting problem. UPS will do well, regardless of the economy, as things have to keep moving. In some aspects, they might do even better than most any other of the companies. When you have tight times, you dont stockpile much. You also order in smaller quanities, in case the economy goes really south.

In both of these cases, UPS is positioned to do well.

We have cut the time in transit in many areas. What used to take 4 days now only takes 2. That makes ground a real bargin again for many customers. While we are more expensive than other carriers, we do provide more value for the money overall.

As for local economies not doing well, that could be what you are seeing. Some centers will have to cut back, while others will hire. That is the nature of the beast.

I think over all, while there are some real issues to deal with, I believe that this glitch in the economy will reverse itself.

One thing I have noticed is when one party is in power, and the power is being given to the other party, the economy during that time really sucks. Dont really know why, just that it is.

But a down economy is also a great opertunity for the right businesses in the right field. A great many fortunes are made when it seems every one else is in the dumper.

d

[barnyard]

Excellent explanation Dannyboy.

TB

[The Brown Santa]

See my post?
http://www.browncafe.com/forum/ups_d...e_layoffs.html


I've been back inside for 3 weeks now making $10 an hour. Don't know how I'm gonna survive this if I don't get back out on the road soon.

[wannabeups]

I am kind of nervous. I don't know who to believe. Sometimes I wonder if they are trying to force/starve some of us out.

[rod]

If the economy don't get ya - global warming will.

[BLACKBOX]

Oh yes, better believe it. Customers I deliver to are cutting staff and hours. Receiving hours aren't open as late as usual. I have a few restaurants in my area that used to be pack with the lunch crowd , now are lucky if even half the people show up.

Just read an article where the people who are getting more work than they can handle are....you guessed it.....repo companies!

[brownrodster]

I'm extremely fortunate to live in an area wherethe economy is vibrant. Real Estate market hasn't taken a hit either. Our center is training new drivers.

[dannyboy]

To give you some additional things to think about.

In some areas, property values have gone into the dumpster. Naples Fla is one of those places. Where a friend of mine was doing 500+ closings a month they are now lucky to do 5-10 a month.

So there are a lot of isolated areas that are really hurting.

One thing to think about as well.

In troubled times, it is usually best not to be burdened with excessive debt. Actually that is a good idea for any time. But in tough times, it is really pretty bad. With the costs of living going through the roof, disposable income is shrinking. Check out the local paper and see how many people are dumping motor homes.

So if this economy has you really worried, use your tax rebate to pay of debt. At least those of you that will get the rebate. I for one dont seem to qualify.

d

[satellitedriver]

Originally Posted by dannyboy

To give you some additional things to think about.

In some areas, property values have gone into the dumpster. Naples Fla is one of those places. Where a friend of mine was doing 500+ closings a month they are now lucky to do 5-10 a month.

So there are a lot of isolated areas that are really hurting.

One thing to think about as well.

In troubled times, it is usually best not to be burdened with excessive debt. Actually that is a good idea for any time. But in tough times, it is really pretty bad. With the costs of living going through the roof, disposable income is shrinking. Check out the local paper and see how many people are dumping motor homes.

So if this economy has you really worried, use your tax rebate to pay of debt. At least those of you that will get the rebate. I for one dont seem to qualify.

d

Both of your posts are dead on target.
I keep a quote from Thomas Fuller on the top of the page of my investment notebook.
"Debt is the worst poverty"
Good posts, Danny

[TSup]

UPS Lowers 1Q 2008 Guidance

Press Release

Deteriorating U.S. Economic Conditions Restrain Domestic Volume

ATLANTA, April 8, 2008 - UPS (NYSE: UPS) today announced it had lowered its first quarter earnings expectations to $0.86 or $0.87 per diluted share from a previously anticipated range of $0.94-to-0.98.
At UPS's investor conference on March 12, Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn stated that UPS's earnings guidance for the quarter would be difficult to achieve if lower volume trends experienced in February continued through March. The U.S. economy has continued to weaken, causing a reduction in domestic package volume and a shift away from premium products. Significantly increased fuel costs in the quarter also contributed to the lower-than-expected results.
On April 23, the company will discuss first quarter results and its outlook for the year.
UPS (NYSE: UPS) is the world's largest package delivery company and a global leader in supply chain and freight services. With more than a century of experience in transportation and logistics, UPS is a leading global trade expert equipped with a broad portfolio of solutions. Headquartered in Atlanta, Ga., UPS serves more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. The company can be found on the Web at UPS.com. To get UPS news direct, visit pressroom.ups.com/RSS.

Stock dropped over $3 after hours today

[barnyard]

One area of the economy that is virtually ignored is the farm economy and related industries. John Deere reported strong sales and expects this year to be stronger. Car dealers in farm country are doing fairly well also. Farmers that do well replace older pickups with new ones.

TB

[sx2700]

I haven't seen a decrease in volume in my neck of the woods, in fact they just hired a couple cover drivers for the summer.

[sx2700]

Originally Posted by The Brown Santa

See my post?
http://www.browncafe.com/forum/ups_d...e_layoffs.html


I've been back inside for 3 weeks now making $10 an hour. Don't know how I'm gonna survive this if I don't get back out on the road soon.

"Ditch diggers" make around $10 an hour and usually without benefits, so you it's not like you don't have a choice. I bust my ass at UPS for $9.50 and hour so I can have health insurance for my family and I'm grateful for it.

[ups_vette]

Originally Posted by dannyboy

But a down economy is also a great opertunity for the right businesses in the right field. A great many fortunes are made when it seems every one else is in the dumper.d

Danny, You are absolutely correct. The year was 1929 and the US economy was in the mist of a depression. What does a west coast delivery company do during this time of great financial hardship? They expand their operations and move to New York City on the east coast.

[feeder53]

The economy is down, and I have not worked at UPS for a while (Dec 26 07) . I did receive a call today from a feeder manager and wanted to know if I would be available to continue my training. I to0ld him sure, and he told me they may use me for vacations. I have a full time job now so it does not bother me, but I feel for those who have paid the price and now are on lay-off.

[beentheredonethat]

Originally Posted by dannyboy

To your question on the economy, that is a real interesting problem. UPS will do well, regardless of the economy, as things have to keep moving. In some aspects, they might do even better than most any other of the companies. When you have tight times, you dont stockpile much. You also order in smaller quanities, in case the economy goes really south.
d

Danny,
I think UPS will do OK, but I don't think we'll do well. By that I mean, I think in many areas, the local economy will affect the purchasing power and reduce deliveries esp to house call areas. Less pkgs and less stops, therefore the less routes put out there. I know a neighbor who bought a house for about 125K about 12 years or so ago. He wants to sell but was asking about 325, which about 2 years ago, he probably could have gotten. However, he tried selling about 8-12 months ago when the economy was starting to go downhill and esp the house prices. He was telling me that he got some offers but nothing for what he was asking. He said he couldn't sell for less since he owed a bit over 300K on the house. That's when it dawned on me how he could afford to drive a nice car and every few years get a new one etc. For the last 10 years he's averaged taking out about 20K/yr of equity out of his house. Now he owes 300K on his house, and can't sell it for that. He also lost his job for about 8 months and now has a job that is about 80 miles away (each way). He wanted to sell to move closer, but he just can't. All that makes me realize there's a heck of a lot of people in debt (to your point Danny - don't get in debt). I see it being a long time before everyone gets out of this problem. I'm just glad that I didn't borrow on my house and have no debt outside of a 100K mortgage that has about 17 years left on it. It won't be fun for at least the next 6 months probably longer.

[cachsux]

One thing that I have noticed is that people won`t necessarily drive to make their purchases but rather surf the net for better prices. The upsideis their purchases being shipped thru the box moving companies.

[scratch]

I am mainly a residential driver and I usually have Add/Cuts pulled off me everyday. I haven't noticed any volume drop at all on my area. I think some people are cutting back on spending when you see the gas prices jump a lot at the pump. But there is a case to made that it is cheaper to order things online then to spend your time and gas to go to the store. I think that our company will do fine if we can keep our rates in check.

I think that the current problems are caused by oil prices and the housing market concerns. Plus it is an election year and politicians always use scare tactics to get into office, they are looking out for themselves instead of the good of the people. But 93% of people pay their mortgage on time. There are a lot of people with bad or so-so credit that were allowed to buy houses they couldn't afford. A lot of these people also have two new car payments, a big screen TV, and a lot of credit card debt too. People need to live within their means.