Guess the MIP factor - Brown Cafe

randomUPSISer · 10-14-2009, 07:54 PM

Anyone care to take a stab at what the MIP factor will be this year?

My guess is a .5 - .9 but no higher. Corporate wont eliminate it completely because it means a reduction in pay for all MIP participants. That along with the 401k cut, no raises, and reduced healthcare might cause people to leave at the first chance. I think they will keep the MIP at a low token level just to make it appear like it might come back one day. Think "dangling carrot the horse will never get"

Any other predictions? Any inside info?

Six Sides · 10-14-2009, 08:37 PM

.76 and a management pension buyout in the first quarter of 2010!!

Big Babooba · 10-14-2009, 08:40 PM

3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375 10582097494459230781640628620899862803482534211706 79...

BleedBrown · 10-15-2009, 01:45 AM

My SWAG is 1.1

Pacman · 10-15-2009, 03:12 AM

Wall Street had concerns about MIP and the way UPS distributed the stock annually to management. The current economy plays in to UPS strategy to transition the awards from all management to the select few. This has been coming since the IPO if you remember the trend down in the multiplier after a couple of teaser years. I have heard many times the Union was trying to cook the Golden Goose but Management took the challenge and picked the feathers, put the water on to boil, and is looking for a way to quietly do what a recession or two and World Wars could not.

mountaingoat · 10-15-2009, 04:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Babooba

3.141592653589793238462643383279502884197169399375 10582097494459230781640628620899862803482534211706 79...

I'd take that piece of PI, but I think that the MIP will be in the 1.0 - 1.2 range.

brownmonster · 10-15-2009, 05:48 AM

Remember the "Partners" reaped the benifits during the glory growth years. Last I looked we are not growing very fast. I lay the blame on moves made to destroy customer service by some of these same "Partners".

negrosangre · 10-15-2009, 06:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Six Sides

.76 and a management pension buyout in the first quarter of 2010!!

Boy, I hope you are low on the frist part and dead on, on the second part!!

hangin455 · 10-15-2009, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Six Sides

.76 and a management pension buyout in the first quarter of 2010!!

Might be right on the 1st part - pure fantasy on the 2nd....

Black_6_Leader · 10-15-2009, 10:36 AM

I would have agreed with a new record low (the historic low was a 0.6 back on 11/23/1977), until someone showed me their calculation on what the drop in the share price did to the cost of paying off the RSU that are due this year . . . The award price was in the mid 70's, and the conversion / redemption price will only be in the mid 50's. That savings could allow the factor to go up by an estimated 0.5.

So put my SWAG in as a 1.10-1.40

raceanoncr · 10-15-2009, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randomUPSISer

Anyone care to take a stab at what the MIP factor will be this year?

I would venture to say, based on my years of MIP experience, that it will run out to be the multiplicative inverse of the hypotenouse triangle, times the SWAG factor, plus the SPOH initiative, minus the square root of the DIAD added to the IVIS score.

There.

Old Man Mike · 10-15-2009, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randomUPSISer

Anyone care to take a stab at what the MIP factor will be this year?

My guess is a .5 - .9 but no higher. Corporate wont eliminate it completely because it means a reduction in pay for all MIP participants. That along with the 401k cut, no raises, and reduced healthcare might cause people to leave at the first chance. I think they will keep the MIP at a low token level just to make it appear like it might come back one day. Think "dangling carrot the horse will never get"

Any other predictions? Any inside info?

Just retired in August to the amazement of many who thought I should wait for the MIP...third quarter results out on the 22nd only to enforce low MIP award...Maybe since everything else taken away UPS will be nice and give good MIP # to hold onto management...Don't hold your breath...Your guess is in my range...Is the CEO and staff in that range too???

Dis-organized Labor · 10-15-2009, 03:32 PM

My guess is 1.25

Hoaxster · 10-15-2009, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by negrosangre

Boy, I hope you are low on the frist part and dead on, on the second part!!

Have you looked at what your pension is valued at?
The value of your pension in the UPS Total Awards would presumably be the pay out. I challenge to find an annuity that pays half of your monthly pension based on that payout.

dragon · 10-15-2009, 04:52 PM

1.4

bigdog · 10-15-2009, 04:53 PM

1.4 - remember the "big cats" like money too!

dcdriver · 10-16-2009, 12:33 PM

1.1

sosocal · 10-16-2009, 01:34 PM

I am hearing massive consolidation and an accompanying early retirement option for affected employees. Also UPS will manage itself into a smaller more specialized company in general, focusing on more profitable customer bases and service offerings. We will no longer try to be all things to all people. Leaner in all directions- far less revenues, but better profit to revenue ratio.

randomUPSISer · 10-16-2009, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sosocal

I am hearing massive consolidation and an accompanying early retirement option for affected employees. Also UPS will manage itself into a smaller more specialized company in general, focusing on more profitable customer bases and service offerings. We will no longer try to be all things to all people. Leaner in all directions- far less revenues, but better profit to revenue ratio.

Ive no doubt of more consolidations, and *if* we are lucky pension buyouts and early retirements (as opposed to pure layoffs)

I dont buy for a second UPS would give up its HUGE business model of trying to be all things to all people to go into some sort of foolhardy venture of super specialization. Its pretty obvious at this point that the CEO and crew think they can cost cut the company into being a profit power house. It seems highly unlikely they would abandon that and do a complete corporate strategy swap.

sosocal · 10-17-2009, 07:45 AM

maybe it is a ploy -- I'm sure the teamsters would rather make some concessions to maintain or potentially grow its membership than lose 35 percent membership through the refocusing and shedding of unproductive assets. But it is going in that direction. We will see how far.

UpstateNYUPSer · 10-17-2009, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sosocal

maybe it is a ploy -- I'm sure the teamsters would rather make some concessions to maintain or potentially grow its membership than lose 35 percent membership through the refocusing and shedding of unproductive assets. But it is going in that direction. We will see how far.

You are making the assumption that the unproductive assets within UPS are those in which union employees work, to include package and freight. Package quite obviously is not going anywhere and freight will continue to grow as our competitors continue to fall by the wayside. I do not foresee any substantitive change in our business model but do foresee more growth in UPS Capital and Supply Chain Soultions.

spitt2000 · 10-18-2009, 04:43 PM

I don't see any way it can be over 1. Just my opinion

Dis-organized Labor · 10-18-2009, 08:54 PM

What if it's a -.1???

UPScomputerGUY · 10-20-2009, 08:01 PM

My Guess? 3.0 ... along with an announcement the party is over ... MIP will be discontinued after 2009.

TheFerret · 10-20-2009, 08:21 PM

.6, if we are lucky.
Basic UPS Stradegy.
Kick the Front line managers in the teeth and give them nothing.