Are you ready for 30% more work? The perfect storm?

[kingOFchester]

2012 21 business days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
2013 17 business days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
That means that there was 23% more time last year between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

UPS predicts peak volume to be up 8% this year.

23% less time to do 8% more work is an increase of over 30%.

Ups is hiring the same amount of seasonal hires as it did in 2011 and 2012.

Here is the plan:
"UPS executives said that this year's late Thanksgiving holiday, Nov. 28, will be a challenge. Cramming holiday shipments into fewer days could make the network run more efficiently"
Could make the network run more efficiently??? And if not, then what?? Oh, thanks for "cramming". Will make my checks look all that much better!!

Throw in a major storm and we are all friend'd.

All the info listed above can be found here:
UPS more than doubles 3Q profit - Yahoo Finance

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

23% less time to do 8% more work is an increase of 30%.

This would be like saying that an item that is 50% off with an additional 10% door buster sale would be 60% off---it wouldn't.

Let's say the item was originally priced at $100. 50% off would bring it down to $50. 10% off of the $50 is $5 so the final price would be $45. Using your "math" the item would be priced at $40 (60% off of $100), which I have shown would not be the case.

You cannot combine two or more different indices (time and volume) in to a single percentage.

We do agree with one thing----it is going to be a very busy Peak.

 

[Wally]

Cram what ever they want. I can only work 12 hour per day. I don't go any faster just because it's peak. Work like a fool and you will get more work.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

Cram what ever they want. I can only work 12 hour per day. I don't go any faster just because it's peak. Work like a fool and you will get more work.

Did you recently sign the Hours of Service certification? You can work up to 14 hours per day but can only drive for 12.

 

[kingOFchester]

You are wrong Upstate....will you admit it?

Peak 2012 I give you 5,250 stops to complete in 21 days. That is 250 stops a day.

Peak 2013 I increase the stops by 8% = 5,670 stops. I now give you only 17 days to complete (23% less time) That is 333 stops per day. An increase of 33%.

Your math does not work. You are using a single percentage increase on one factor.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

An 8% increase in volume does not necessarily result in an 8% increase in the number of stops on your package car.

 

[kingOFchester]

An 8% increase in volume does not necessarily result in an 8% increase in the number of stops on your package car.

Agree, but that does not change the fact that your post stating that my numbers do not work, is wrong. Stick to the numbers, and admit that your post was wrong. I promise, you will not self destruct do to being wrong.

8% more volume and 23% less time is over 30% more work for the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Which was what my original post was about. I use stops as an example to prove my math.

My first post was stating that we could have 30% more work between Thanksgiving and Christmas. You stated that I was wrong and tried to use math to prove that my math was wrong. I then gave you an example on how my math is correct and now you change your stance? Taking about something that is not part of the discussion to justify your poor math skills?? You are a real piece of work.

 

[3 done 3 to go]

All I know is. It's their job to make sure you can complete your day. If not, sheet as missed. I will still work at my pace. Take my lunch from 2- 2:55. Included break. I will work till they say you have to be in at this hour. Expect to work 60 hr weeks. Like the old days. Now we have to be in and off the clock, no later than 9:30. 20 plus yrs ago we worked till mid night.

 

[brownmonster]

Why analyze it? It is what it is. We will all survive some how.

 

[UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)]

One thing is certain---I would never ask KOC to do my taxes.

 

[kingOFchester]

One thing for sure, upstate is an arrogant, condescending, no it all a'hole who has zero ability to admit faults. Please sir, Show me where my math is wrong. Yes I rounded a percentage point here and there, but my math proves that according to ups we will have over 30% more work. Care to prove me wrong???

 

[kingOFchester]

Upstate posted that my math is wrong. I am asking anyone to show me where my math is wrong. I will redo the math for everyone.
Lets say your building moved 2.1 million packages in 2012 between thanksgiving and Christmas. That comes to 100,000 a day.
Ups says volume will be up 8% which is 2,268,000 packages. Divide that by 17 days for the days we have between thanksgiving and Christmas this year. That comes to 133,431 packages a day.
That is a 30% increase in daily volume between thanksgiving and Christmas that your hub will have to deal with.

now whether the volume will be spread over a longer period outside the time between thanksgiving and Christmas is arguable. But my math is not wrong as updick claims.

Anyone please enlighten me on where my math is wrong and updicks math is correct. Thanks
​

 

[InsideUPS]

2012 21 business days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
2013 17 business days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
That means that there was 23% more time last year between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

UPS predicts peak volume to be up 8% this year.

23% less time to do 8% more work is an increase of over 30%.

Ups is hiring the same amount of seasonal hires as it did in 2011 and 2012.

Here is the plan:
"UPS executives said that this year's late Thanksgiving holiday, Nov. 28, will be a challenge. Cramming holiday shipments into fewer days could make the network run more efficiently"
Could make the network run more efficiently??? And if not, then what?? Oh, thanks for "cramming". Will make my checks look all that much better!!

Throw in a major storm and we are all friend'd.

kingOFchester.....love your analysis....however, one little exception that WE ALL can change...

Throw in a major storm and UPS is friend'd.....

We should ALL keep in mind that:

"Failure to plan on the part of UPS.....does NOT constitute an emergency on OUR part".

Follow the methods, get help with those over 70's, work safe, and have a Happy Holiday $eason : )

 

[InsideUPS]

Upstate posted that my math is wrong. I am asking anyone to show me where my math is wrong. I will redo the math for everyone.
Lets say your building moved 2.1 million packages in 2012 between thanksgiving and Christmas. That comes to 100,000 a day.
Ups says volume will be up 8% which is 2,268,000 packages. Divide that by 17 days for the days we have between thanksgiving and Christmas this year. That comes to 133,431 packages a day.
That is a 30% increase in daily volume between thanksgiving and Christmas that your hub will have to deal with.

now whether the volume will be spread over a longer period outside the time between thanksgiving and Christmas is arguable. But my math is not wrong as updick claims.

Anyone please enlighten me on where my math is wrong and updicks math is correct. Thanks
​

Honestly kingOFchester...... I get your point without having to micro-analyze the math involved... The part about having 8% more volume with the same number of workers as in prior years makes it pretty clear to me.

 

[bbsam]

I don't think your math is too far off, but your conclusion may be. The suggestion that the 30%volume increase translates into 30% more work for drivers is a bit dubious. First of all, UPS drivers are already being pushed. A route doing 300 stops last peak would increase 60 to 90 stops? Is that even possible? It may be that UPS will have to expend more resources to hire more temp drivers and helpers taking into consideration not only increased volume but also the subsequent later start times. Or maybe they quietly acknowledge that the number of service failures is going to rise. Possibly all of the above.

 

[kingOFchester]

Honestly kingOFchester...... I get your point without having to micro-analyze the math involved... The part about having 8% more volume with the same number of workers as in prior years makes it pretty clear to me.

Dont forget to add in what ups has already stated "Cramming holiday shipments into fewer days"

 

[kingOFchester]

I don't think your math is too far off, but your conclusion may be. The suggestion that the 30%volume increase translates into 30% more work for drivers is a bit dubious. First of all, UPS drivers are already being pushed. A route doing 300 stops last peak would increase 60 to 90 stops? Is that even possible? It may be that UPS will have to expend more resources to hire more temp drivers and helpers taking into consideration not only increased volume but also the subsequent later start times. Or maybe they quietly acknowledge that the number of service failures is going to rise. Possibly all of the above.

Oh. I agree. But ups had already stated they are not hiring any more seasonal help above what they hired last year. That is my point of the perfect storm. Updick got us off topic do to his implication my math is wrong. Same labor force as last year. More volume and fewer days and same peak seasonal hires. How are they going to pull this off??

 

[bbsam]

How are you going to pull it off? You aren't. Thus the increased service failures. I don't think there is a money back guarantee doring peak, is there?

 

[728ups]

This year we re using DIAD IV instead of the good old DIAD III ,so the days of presheeting entire neighborhoods,running the stops and later stop completing 30 or 40 stops at once are OVER for me. My helper will use 3 points of contact entering and exiting the PC,as well as walking ONLY in driveway and designated walkways............ combined with a pre load that is incapable of getting the right pkgs on the right trucks (much less in the right sections) makes me feel this Peak will last well into January. I am just glad I got back on the 9.5 list in September and can file excessive OT grievances the first week of January =)

 

[kingOFchester]

How are you going to pull it off? You aren't. Thus the increased service failures. I don't think there is a money back guarantee doring peak, is there?

There Will be service failures. But my prediction is we will be working more hours