7 cent increase is my guess - Hoax I am curious about your guess for MIP...Whether it comes close or not I have always liked your insight and opinion...mostly because.. The postings on this site are your own and don't necessarily represent UPS's positions, strategies or opinions.
No insight ... just deductive logic.
I have, ever since UPS went public, have said that UPS is positioning our stock incorrectly.
In my mind, UPS Stock should be positioned similar to a "Utility" stock which means slow but increasing growth, not as sensitive to the stock market up-and-downs and dividend yields in the area of 3% - 4%.
UPS yield has been sub-3% for years but has been creeping up to 3% (currently 2.8%).
The last quarterly dividend was $0.52 or $2.08 annual.
If the price of a share of stock settles around $80/ share then a 3% yield will be $2.40 share.
I have no insight or insider knowledge about how UPS is positioning the stock but I believe they are becoming resigned that UPS is not a "Growth" stock.
I have much of my stock investments in a mix of the following stocks:
Ticker Company Dvd
--- ------ -----
T AT&T 5.8%
MO Altria Group 5.7%
VZ Verizon 5.0%
LLY Eli Lilly 4.7%
DUK Duke Energy 4.6%
MRK Merck & Co 4.4%
SO Southern Co 4.2%
PFE Pfizer 4.0%
ED Consolidated Edison 4.0%
PM Philip Morris Int'l 3.9%
BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb 3.9%
KMB Kimberly-Clark 3.8%
XEL Xcel Energy 3.8%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 3.5%
K Kellogg 3.4%
ABT Abbott Laboratories 3.4%
PG Procter & Gamble 3.1%
PEP PepsiCo 3.1%
GIS General Mills 3.0%
MCD McDonald's 2.8%
These stocks all have dividends at or above 3.0% (MCD fell below 3% because it increased in price per share)
They also have a historical beta of less than .85 (beta is a measure of volatility in relation to an index - in this case S&P)
These companies are large cap of at least $10 B market value.
I feel that UPS is on PAR with these other companies with $75 B Market Cap, .83 beta and 2.8% Yield.
Now ... with all that laid out - I feel UPS will try and get UPS up to 3% yield (on a consistent basis) and that is why I said $2.40 for the year.