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<blockquote data-quote="Old Man Jingles" data-source="post: 3849386" data-attributes="member: 18222">The inversion is caused at this time by the pressure of continuing interest rate raises by the Fed along with the uncertainty regarding trade/tariff talks and subsequent agreements between USA and China.Look at the first derivative values of the yield curves ... it contradicts the inversion. The market concerns are not backed by the actual fundamentals.The underlying assumption is that if the 3 year or 5 year yield rate is higher than the 10-yr Treasury bill yield, then a recession is imminent.However, there is only a 20% chance prediction of a recession within the next year by analysts.Hedge Funds are pushing the recession story to increase investments in their products.Also, self-fulfilling predictions of a recession can cause artificial downward pressure on the market.Looking at one indicator and ignoring causal drivers is a flawed approach.The equity market is overpriced IMO so I see a settling of the S&amp;P P/E ratios into a 16 to 18 range ... down from highs in the upper 20&#039;s and the current 22%.Volatility will rule over the next 2 years ... I focus on my life and not my stocks.My investment strategy remains the same regardless ... trying to time the market is a losing proposition.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Old Man Jingles, post: 3849386, member: 18222"] The inversion is caused at this time by the pressure of continuing interest rate raises by the Fed along with the uncertainty regarding trade/tariff talks and subsequent agreements between USA and China. Look at the first derivative values of the yield curves ... it contradicts the inversion. The market concerns are not backed by the actual fundamentals. The underlying assumption is that if the 3 year or 5 year yield rate is higher than the 10-yr Treasury bill yield, then a recession is imminent. However, there is only a 20% chance prediction of a recession within the next year by analysts. Hedge Funds are pushing the recession story to increase investments in their products. Also, self-fulfilling predictions of a recession can cause artificial downward pressure on the market. Looking at one indicator and ignoring causal drivers is a flawed approach. The equity market is overpriced IMO so I see a settling of the S&P P/E ratios into a 16 to 18 range ... down from highs in the upper 20's and the current 22%. Volatility will rule over the next 2 years ... I focus on my life and not my stocks. My investment strategy remains the same regardless ... trying to time the market is a losing proposition. [/QUOTE]

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