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<blockquote data-quote="Old Man Jingles" data-source="post: 3851606" data-attributes="member: 18222"><p>I have been doing more research on the market and the Treasury yield curves ... in contrast with the 10 year/2 year spread, the difference in the 10-year and 3-month Treasury rate, which has been a more reliable predictor of recessions; it currently has a spread of about 50 basis points, which is not a worrisome level historically. Moreover, even when the yield curve does invert, there have often been long and varying lead times before a recession, on average well over a year; in the interim, stocks have averaged double-digit gains. </p><p>Notably, the yield curve was also relatively flat during the strong economic environment from 1995 to 2000.</p><p></p><p>I state again, <strong>I focus on my life and not my stocks.</strong> I have been investing since the early 90's and my observation is, the markets go up and the markets go down but over the long run, the market trends upward.</p><p>Spend some time reading Jeremy Siegel's books on the stock market and above all else, don't try and time the market.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Old Man Jingles, post: 3851606, member: 18222"] I have been doing more research on the market and the Treasury yield curves ... in contrast with the 10 year/2 year spread, the difference in the 10-year and 3-month Treasury rate, which has been a more reliable predictor of recessions; it currently has a spread of about 50 basis points, which is not a worrisome level historically. Moreover, even when the yield curve does invert, there have often been long and varying lead times before a recession, on average well over a year; in the interim, stocks have averaged double-digit gains. Notably, the yield curve was also relatively flat during the strong economic environment from 1995 to 2000. I state again, [B]I focus on my life and not my stocks.[/B] I have been investing since the early 90's and my observation is, the markets go up and the markets go down but over the long run, the market trends upward. Spend some time reading Jeremy Siegel's books on the stock market and above all else, don't try and time the market. [/QUOTE]
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