FedEx stock is crashing and burning. What do you think the future will be?

Discussion in 'FedEx Discussions' started by fedx, Dec 18, 2019.

  1. fedx

    fedx Extra Large Package

    Any thoughts on the future of FedEx? Do you think Amazon might try to buy FedEx if the stock keeps dipping? Do you think our last "raise" will indeed be our last raise for good? I don't see the company doing anymore step progressions for the foreseeable future do you?
  2. UpstateNYUPSer

    UpstateNYUPSer Well-Known Member

    Amazon delivery will merge w/DHL US and become a dominant player.

    FedEx Ground will continue to expand at the expense of Express.

    Express will be comprised of part time employees working either the AM or PM shift.
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  3. 59 Dano

    59 Dano I just want to make friends!

    The stock isn't at its 52 week low. Get a grip.
  4. MrFedEx

    MrFedEx Engorged Member

    Express is headed down the toilet. I doubt Bezos would buy FedEx unless it was at a fire-sale price. By leasing his aircraft fleet and contracting out delivery ala' Ground, Bezos has incredible flexibility. Smith owns hundreds of jets and thousands of vehicles, all of which sit and cost him money when they aren't full.

    If business slows down, Bezos severs ties with Atlas Air or simply leases fewer planes. He also would subsidize fewer new delivery subcontractors. In other words, he has created a very flexible business model that the other carriers cannot duplicate. Bezos is making money off the product, not the delivery. That's just an expedited way of improving the product to the consumer. UPS, FedEx, and the rest have no product to sell but their ability to transport goods. Big difference.

    As I just wrote in another post, Bezos is changing the delivery service paradigm by making it an integral system and cutting-out the cost of having a third party deliver. He owns the entire process, controls the costs, and has the flexibility to tailor it to Amazon's needs as they evolves.

    Work Smarter, not Harder, LOL.
  5. bacha29

    bacha29 Well-Known Member

    Less than 10 bucks away from it. Yes, it will recover eventually but it may require some restructuring and coming to terms with fact that farming out your most promising OPCO's work to third party contractors comes with baggage. it's a poor setup which requires contractors to be able to find enough people to produce and conduct themselves in a manner whose value is far greater that what that contractor can pay them.

    Like I said. You're never going to get a $40 an hour performance (UPS) for a $15 an hour wage. At least not for long and there are no guarantees that a suitable replacement for that person will always come calling. Keep on growing if they want to but sooner or later you're going to run out of cheap labor before you run out of boxes and this peak season's cluster fornication is a clear testament to that fact.
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  6. dezguy

    dezguy Well-Known Member

    Must be why the station I'm at keeps hiring ft drivers. 15 new ft positions in the past 6 months.
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  7. Nolimitz

    Nolimitz Well-Known Member

    only hiring casuals here
  8. MrFedEx

    MrFedEx Engorged Member

    Canad has something to do with that. You seem like a smart guy. It might be time to head for the exits and have a Molson's, eh? The Amazon Canucks are ahead 340 to zero in the final period and they have a power play.
  9. fedx

    fedx Extra Large Package

    I think FedEx's real problems started with that TNT merger. That was what was holding FedEx down for the past 4 years was the "headwinds" created by that merger. We don't hear a lot about the TNT fiasco anymore, but now it's Amazon that took another chip out of FedEx. So the combined issued of that TNT merger along with Amazon competition is really squeezing FedEx now.

    I wonder if they will do away with that 10 step pay progression all together? I mean with all the financial problems they're having now and with no end in sight, they might just permanently suspend the pay steps. If they do that, I'm sure you'll see a lot of people quitting sooner than later. Realizing you're in a stressful job who's top out pay is $17-19/hr will cause most to leave. Of course FedEx won't say they've canceled the pay steps, they'll say they suspended them (forever) to prevent people from quitting in mass.

    So then you'll have FedEx become a place like McDonalds where you only plan on working there a couple of years till you find something better. They'll have tremendous turnover and will lose the respect they once had as a good place to work.
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2019
  10. Cactus

    Cactus Just telling it like it is

    It’s already in motion and getting uglier every day.
  11. Serf

    Serf Well-Known Member

    I hate to bang the doomsday scenario, but it's hard to disagree with what your saying.
  12. Serf

    Serf Well-Known Member

    Agree. 3-6 hours of pickup or delivery for stagnant wages and high dedecutible catastrophic healthcare.
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  13. dezguy

    dezguy Well-Known Member

    Amazon can't even figure out how to use their scanners (had a driver the other day stand at my front door for what seemed like 10 minutes while he figured out how to scan the package he was delivering) or deliver to the proper address.

    Spoke with a former manager at the distribution centre here and he said the place is a sweatshop and they can't keep people more than a few weeks at a time because the pay sucks and they expect people to haul ass every second you're in the facility.

    If Amazon plans on taking on FedEx, UPS and Purolator, they have a long way to go. If FedEx can't keep people because of the wages they offer, what makes people think Amazon will when their wages are even less than that of FedEx?
  14. oldngray

    oldngray nowhere special

    The @Future is so bright you will have to wear shades
  15. badpal

    badpal Active Member

    I more concerned what happens to UPS , what are your thoughts there?
  16. UpstateNYUPSer

    UpstateNYUPSer Well-Known Member

    Small package will simply become just another division at UPS Inc.
  17. bacha29

    bacha29 Well-Known Member

    The belief among the traders I read and listened to is that while a company's stock might be broken if the company and it's business model itself isn't broken then history has shown that the stock will recover in about 18 months.
    Now if you look at what Fat Freddy and his minions said yesterday about lapping Bezos the timeline they're talking about is around 18 months.
    It would therefore appear that they too know that they've got 18 months to restructure and recover.
  18. Fred's Myth

    Fred's Myth Nonhyphenated American

    Have you offered your expert advice and services to Fred, yet?

    For a fee, of course.

    They're probably clueless about what to do with their jing weeds.
  19. bacha29

    bacha29 Well-Known Member

    Not advice, just passing on what pro traders are saying which is more than what you have been offering. So get back to me in 18 months and we'll see where they are . In the meantime I'm sure pro traders are asking themselves if the stock is even worth 147 let alone it's all time high of 278.
  20. MassWineGuy

    MassWineGuy Well-Known Member

    I think the Amazon/DHL linkup makes sense. Also, that Amazon is changing the profit structure for selling and delivering things. I disagree with many ways Fred S runs the company, but he’s no idiot. He must recognize the seismic shift the industry is seeing. But that TNT deal and the incredibly top-heavy upper management structure make changing strategy like turning a huge oil tanker. It needs a mile or so to get it done.

    I agree that we can kiss the pay step program goodbye.