FedEx's Ultimate Goal After 2020 (Keep On Topic Please)

The Youngin' Of It All

Well-Known Member
I'm going to say this again, but please keep this on topic. Ground and Express are both welcome to comment. So here is what I think is going to happen after 2020, more towards 2021 or 2022. Not exactly certain on the exact dates.

I saw someone else post on here about Express wanting to put cameras in their trucks. We have to do it already for our next contract to even negotiate. No big deal. Company changes color schematic all Orange. No problem. Overlap between Ground and Home Delivery. Sure. 1 year contracts only for us on Ground? Why only 1 year? Hmm..

My theory and sources are telling me FedEx's ultimate goal is to get the whole country on the same level for ISP and overlapped 100% by the early 2020's, then plan to start shifting Express volume. How much? I don't know the answer. How soon or fast? Again, I do not know. Now I know what you are thinking, Fred would never let that happen. Truth is, it is already happening. FedEx wants to pull out of the industry all together and give it to the Ground side to contract while minimizing costs through any opco.

When it is all said and done, FedEx will simply only be made up of sales, lawyers, customer service, and some slight P&D / Sr Management. We will have our own sorts, lease our own spots in terminals, and gain our own DOT number. Now think about that for a second, why on earth would they do that? Basically all they did was build up a brand. Why do you think brand promotion was paid out versus those who didn't participate in that feature in their contract? Contractors choice in additional revenue.

Next, take a look at what is going on right now with the two man on a truck and IC warehouse they have been rolling out. UPS has clearly made it obvious they want nothing to do with investing in this type of packages just based on their building structure to move these around. FedEx is trying to obtain success in an industry where UPS nor Amazon (for now) want nothing to do with. Who can they give it to while making money off of it? Ground. Contractors. Lower payout = More profit.

Lastly, 6 day operation. It's a bust right now financially, but what happens if Express volume goes into the mix? That should make it somewhat more feasible financially. After all, you are overlapped. Not to mention I can confirm this will become 7 day. When? I do not know. But if Amazon is doing it, you better believe we will be too.

Bottom line, lots of changes going on right now in FedEx as a whole, which are mainly invested in Ground. Really take a good look at this company right now and ask yourself what you can see it being in 5 years and if you will still be around for the ride. Especially you Bacha and Makaveli. I've concluded all FedEx did was build a brand, made their money, now they will make it what it should have been during the RPS times at a 45% market share versus when it was single digits. Of course they had to kill the one route mindset and wanted it to be legitimate corporations they contract with, and will finally shift that control where it rightfully belongs. Amazon is already doing this, but don't forget Amazon is based on their own volume, whereas we rely strongly on customer accounts. Big difference. On top of that, only the strong will survive this from the Ground side as a whole. Out of my building alone we have already gone from 9 to 7. It's going to get a lot bigger than you guys think... best of luck to you all.
 

bacha29

Well-Known Member
I'm going to say this again, but please keep this on topic. Ground and Express are both welcome to comment. So here is what I think is going to happen after 2020, more towards 2021 or 2022. Not exactly certain on the exact dates.

I saw someone else post on here about Express wanting to put cameras in their trucks. We have to do it already for our next contract to even negotiate. No big deal. Company changes color schematic all Orange. No problem. Overlap between Ground and Home Delivery. Sure. 1 year contracts only for us on Ground? Why only 1 year? Hmm..

My theory and sources are telling me FedEx's ultimate goal is to get the whole country on the same level for ISP and overlapped 100% by the early 2020's, then plan to start shifting Express volume. How much? I don't know the answer. How soon or fast? Again, I do not know. Now I know what you are thinking, Fred would never let that happen. Truth is, it is already happening. FedEx wants to pull out of the industry all together and give it to the Ground side to contract while minimizing costs through any opco.

When it is all said and done, FedEx will simply only be made up of sales, lawyers, customer service, and some slight P&D / Sr Management. We will have our own sorts, lease our own spots in terminals, and gain our own DOT number. Now think about that for a second, why on earth would they do that? Basically all they did was build up a brand. Why do you think brand promotion was paid out versus those who didn't participate in that feature in their contract? Contractors choice in additional revenue.

Next, take a look at what is going on right now with the two man on a truck and IC warehouse they have been rolling out. UPS has clearly made it obvious they want nothing to do with investing in this type of packages just based on their building structure to move these around. FedEx is trying to obtain success in an industry where UPS nor Amazon (for now) want nothing to do with. Who can they give it to while making money off of it? Ground. Contractors. Lower payout = More profit.

Lastly, 6 day operation. It's a bust right now financially, but what happens if Express volume goes into the mix? That should make it somewhat more feasible financially. After all, you are overlapped. Not to mention I can confirm this will become 7 day. When? I do not know. But if Amazon is doing it, you better believe we will be too.

Bottom line, lots of changes going on right now in FedEx as a whole, which are mainly invested in Ground. Really take a good look at this company right now and ask yourself what you can see it being in 5 years and if you will still be around for the ride. Especially you Bacha and Makaveli. I've concluded all FedEx did was build a brand, made their money, now they will make it what it should have been during the RPS times at a 45% market share versus when it was single digits. Of course they had to kill the one route mindset and wanted it to be legitimate corporations they contract with, and will finally shift that control where it rightfully belongs. Amazon is already doing this, but don't forget Amazon is based on their own volume, whereas we rely strongly on customer accounts. Big difference. On top of that, only the strong will survive this from the Ground side as a whole. Out of my building alone we have already gone from 9 to 7. It's going to get a lot bigger than you guys think... best of luck to you all.

1.. Even if it were possible to pass everything off onto contractors would they're employees be under the RLA or Taft Hartley?

2. Fat Freddy's in his late 70's and has like 10 kids to 2 different women and after he's gone you don't know what his kids will do with the company. A good
example was yesterday when there was a large and complex amount of stock trading ahead of the earnings report that has the SEC taking note of .

3. As has been mentioned before there are several classes of high value high security freight that cannot be easily handed off to third party contractors.

4. Smith's bigger worries as he pointed out was the slower and more costly integration of TNT, lack of a Brexit and China trade deal, more tariffs resulting in
very weak international freight volume at a time when 42 new 67's and 77's are headed his way

5. With the company desperate to find profitable operations any place they can be found about the only thing contractors can look forward to in the near
term is more margin compression and the continued loss of what little control they currently have.

6. Keep in mind the fact that the company going all the way back to the RPS days made it abundantly clear that it was not in the enterprise building business
for the benefit of third party contractors because contractors are not doing anything XG can't do themselves except in two key areas..... The procurement
of labor that's even cheaper than they can get it ( we're talking fast food cheap labor) and to serve as an anti union firewall. If it wasn't for that do you
think that they would actually want you around? What benefit would you be to them?
 

XEQaF

Well-Known Member
I like the topic, because anyone associated with FX or the industry in general need to ask these questions. I would agree with the shift of volume to FXG and reduce where possible on the lagging Express side. Aging planes, higher operating costs etc. FXG is the shinning star in the portfolio.

Off loading the distribution centers, sorting etc to make it a true Independent Contractor model would be nice but the opposite is happening. Investing in hubs, facilities and solidifying their control on the Ground model more and more. I venture to say that eventually they would like to see a consolidation of FXG contractors so they will only be dealing with a handful maybe even one big national contractor and who knows, maybe that company goes public and someone, someone "unknown" investor buys the controlling shares of that contracting company. Maybe far fetched who knows.

Look at Canada. Who owns 90% of Purolator? Canada Post does.. Why? That's would be like USPS buying a direct competitor and running the brands individually.
Lots of moving parts in play here.
 

dezguy

Well-Known Member
Oh, another "FedEx is going to shift all Express volume to ground" thread.

Well, I guess it's been a while so I suppose we were due...
 

59 Dano

I just want to make friends!
My theory and sources are telling me FedEx's ultimate goal is to get the whole country on the same level for ISP and overlapped 100% by the early 2020's, then plan to start shifting Express volume.

You'll have to do better than that. MFE and one of his fluffers said they'd seen all the internal documents and the rollers in Ground trailers and caster decks being installed in all these Ground stations for the big switchover that was supposed to happen.

That was 2012.
 

Fred's Myth

Nonhyphenated American
You'll have to do better than that. MFE and one of his fluffers said they'd seen all the internal documents and the rollers in Ground trailers and caster decks being installed in all these Ground stations for the big switchover that was supposed to happen.

That was 2012.
Simple diversionary tactic.

Lol
 

newgirl

Well-Known Member
Fedex lied about profit. They know what they promised is unsustainable, 10 billion becomes 12 billion becomes 15 billion, etc.
They aren't going to move freight, ground is funding ex like ex funded ground in the 90s.
They are going to cry poverty to get trump to lower tariffs so china can ship their cheap crap to us. International is the profit generator and ground doesn't own any planes. They can't allow TNT to be the new Zapmail. Everything is riding on Raj Superman's shoulders. Lucky he has so much experience.
 

The Youngin' Of It All

Well-Known Member
You'll have to do better than that. MFE and one of his fluffers said they'd seen all the internal documents and the rollers in Ground trailers and caster decks being installed in all these Ground stations for the big switchover that was supposed to happen.

That was 2012.

I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just mentioning what my sources have implied to me what they see happening down the road. All I was doing was looking for feedback. Well let's just say it did happen, what would be your explanation then if it did happen the way I explained it in the opening topic? I'm just curious what your counter to that would be. Again, all I'm doing is reporting what was said to me.
 

TNT Frosty

Well-Known Member
Fedex lied about profit. They know what they promised is unsustainable, 10 billion becomes 12 billion becomes 15 billion, etc.
They aren't going to move freight, ground is funding ex like ex funded ground in the 90s.
They are going to cry poverty to get trump to lower tariffs so china can ship their cheap crap to us. International is the profit generator and ground doesn't own any planes. They can't allow TNT to be the new Zapmail. Everything is riding on Raj Superman's shoulders. Lucky he has so much experience.

Not sure how you mean about profits, data from both NASDAQ, and the Annual report thats publicly available, are the exact same (if you read over both data sheets, both what FedEx corp says, and NASDAQ says should be... are on the dot (Amazingly)
FedEx Express (This includes TNT, as TNT is TNT Express, and we do all ground,freight,express)
End of 2018.. (Operation only)
FedEx Express Gross = $25,553 Mill
FedEx Ground Gross = $15,051 Mill
FedEx Freight Gross = $5,825 Mill

Total Gross = $46,429 Mill

After Operating Expenses of $47,288 Mill

This is what each Operation department made in net profit

Express = $2,485 Mill
Ground = $2,240 Mill
Freight = $421 Mill

===========
We are all apart of the same boat Hull, one gets flooded, we all start to flood. (Excluding our planes as they are always under water by 5%)

Its not only going to be FedEx, infact.. yes.. fact... its not the transport care in that, because we charge the customers for the freight movement; the customer is the one to pay the tariffs and the import costs etc.... its they who would be crying black and blue.
America received $250 Billion in tariffs from China alone (where china only charged USA $110 Billion)
International, is one source, but so is local, or interstate work (Pallet work), we charge more for the same amount of space boxes would, and can even hold a lot more (well, our mezz floors can)

Some insider news.. TNT... we are changing to FedEx Express, we wont be apart of "freight" or "ground" etc... already got the trucks stating that, and new uniforms being ordered/ID pass, as well as logins to the fedex internal portal (but only from work, so I cant access it from home)

If we didnt have that hack/virus with the bitcoin thing (ironically, the price of bitcoin jumped into the thousands where before it was like $10 before the hack); then it would of been sooner, and cheaper to intergrate us over to FedEx Express.. but we have to keep moving foward, and soon my pretties... soon.
 

Exec32

Well-Known Member
Your most valuable asset, BRANDING. It creates customer loyalty, and translates.to marketshare. One thing is for sure, X has a contingency for missed results. Normally they resort to stealing from Ground, however that has been bled dry. Now they have ended annual cash bonuses, this I found interesting. Amazon entry is the elephant in the room that X has continued to publically downplay, but privately acknowledges the impact it has had on future profit and market share.
The contractor model is not exclusive to X, and therefore the competitive advantage will be less of an advantage. X recognizes the promises to shareholders are unsustainable, and growth will not be attained. So yes instead of being innovative and leading they will package the Brand, assign it to a few large national entities to service, and retain control.
Or,,they will consolidate their services by having Ground establish a functional network and assigned areas at mostly the contractors expense, and then end the contractor model, going to employee only, then lobby to have Anazon sued for misclassification under the model they perfected..You see X keeps the Brand, protects the Brand and creates a huge problem for Amazin at a time where they are just entering into the delivery industry on a large scale.
 

59 Dano

I just want to make friends!
I'm not saying it's going to happen. I'm just mentioning what my sources have implied to me what they see happening down the road. All I was doing was looking for feedback. Well let's just say it did happen, what would be your explanation then if it did happen the way I explained it in the opening topic? I'm just curious what your counter to that would be.

I have no idea what you're looking for. You want my counter to something that hasn't happened but that your "sources" have implied that they see might, maybe, happen down the road at some indeterminable point in the future.

My counter is no.
 

59 Dano

I just want to make friends!
Amazon entry is the elephant in the room that X has continued to publically downplay, but privately acknowledges the impact it has had on future profit and market share. The contractor model is not exclusive to X, and therefore the competitive advantage will be less of an advantage. X recognizes the promises to shareholders are unsustainable, and growth will not be attained. So yes instead of being innovative and leading they will package the Brand, assign it to a few large national entities to service, and retain control.
Or,,they will consolidate their services by having Ground establish a functional network and assigned areas at mostly the contractors expense, and then end the contractor model, going to employee only, then lobby to have Anazon sued for misclassification under the model they perfected..You see X keeps the Brand, protects the Brand and creates a huge problem for Amazin at a time where they are just entering into the delivery industry on a large scale.

Or... FedEx hires up all the pilots, which is not far from what they're doing to stave off their own possible shortages that are coming due to retirements.
 

STFXG

Well-Known Member
No Express until we absorb smartpost. Which will happen next year or 2021. Can’t remember when the contract with USPS ends. That’ll be a big volume boost.
 

STFXG

Well-Known Member
You expect FedEx to raise Ground rates so contractors can get that business?
Lol. That’d be nice. Reality is they would drop the rate they pay us since the average package is smaller. And we would be more “condensed”.
Never going to happen though.
 

Fred's Myth

Nonhyphenated American
No Express until we absorb smartpost. Which will happen next year or 2021. Can’t remember when the contract with USPS ends. That’ll be a big volume boost.
Lol. That’d be nice. Reality is they would drop the rate they pay us since the average package is smaller. And we would be more “condensed”.
Never going to happen though.
So which is it?
 

bbsam

Moderator
Staff member
You'll have to do better than that. MFE and one of his fluffers said they'd seen all the internal documents and the rollers in Ground trailers and caster decks being installed in all these Ground stations for the big switchover that was supposed to happen.

That was 2012.
I am hardly one of MFE’s fluffers and the title of the thread was “Rampant Speculation” and meant as just that, a farce of “inside knowledge” and “smoking guns”.

It was amazing how that thread took on a life
of it’s own.
 

59 Dano

I just want to make friends!
I am hardly one of MFE’s fluffers and the title of the thread was “Rampant Speculation” and meant as just that, a farce of “inside knowledge” and “smoking guns”.

It was amazing how that thread took on a life
of it’s own.
The fluffer was the guy whose name escapes me but ended with "1a." I agree that the post was hilarious because of the life it took on. This is a place where you can make a speculative post with nothing to back it up and people will argue until they're blue in the face saying how you can't deny that it's true.
 
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