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<blockquote data-quote="UnconTROLLed" data-source="post: 872250" data-attributes="member: 18708"><p>Well most of the computer models have TD #12 just entering the "bears cage" centered around Day 7 (15N/60W). Infact the gfs ensembles almost unanimously show this , with a strong storm poised in a similar position to Irene. Given the model agreement there, it is nearly a slam dunk for whatever becomes of TD-12 to at least be in position to make a run at the U.S.</p><p></p><p>Given the tropical seasonal trends thus far, moderate LA Nina, negative PDO and NAO cycle, favorable MJO in the Indian ocean...I give TD-12 a 20% chance of coming across and affecting the U.S. That is very high odds for a Cape Verde storm (generally 5% directly affect the U.S.)</p><p></p><p><img src="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSENSATLWND_0z/f168.gif" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="UnconTROLLed, post: 872250, member: 18708"] Well most of the computer models have TD #12 just entering the "bears cage" centered around Day 7 (15N/60W). Infact the gfs ensembles almost unanimously show this , with a strong storm poised in a similar position to Irene. Given the model agreement there, it is nearly a slam dunk for whatever becomes of TD-12 to at least be in position to make a run at the U.S. Given the tropical seasonal trends thus far, moderate LA Nina, negative PDO and NAO cycle, favorable MJO in the Indian ocean...I give TD-12 a 20% chance of coming across and affecting the U.S. That is very high odds for a Cape Verde storm (generally 5% directly affect the U.S.) [IMG]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSENSATLWND_0z/f168.gif[/IMG] [/QUOTE]
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