chargerlou
Well-Known Member
I'm work a downtown route today I have only 34 SO's guess the end is near..
I m getting less and less SOS
- Thread starter chargerlou
- Start date
thedownhillEXPRESS
Well-Known Member
Same at our station.
Something is being diverted, tested etc....
That or the economy went into a depression.
Maybe R1A can speculate, but something is happening NOW......
Something is being diverted, tested etc....
That or the economy went into a depression.
Maybe R1A can speculate, but something is happening NOW......
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Ricochet1a
Well-Known Member
There are many possible reasons for local variations in expected volumes.
There hasn't been any move on FedEx's part to "shift" overnight volumes. Check if Office in your area is picking up volume with its Cheetah service. This will pull overnight volume out of Express - but it will be LOCAL volume only (volume originating and destined to locations within a metro area). I haven't heard about any ramping up of Cheetah (beyond market testing) as of yet.
Another thing to do, is to keep track of your TOTAL piece count. If your total piece count for the day is running within a narrow long-term average (but you notice a drop in SOS volume), then shippers are choosing non-overnight as opposed to SOS service (trying to save some money).
What you should do, is to keep a small "journal", and merely record the date, your total piece count and stop count (I did this along with recording my time card clock in and out times). It only takes a few seconds at the end of each day to record this data from your computer print out time card. Then what you can do is analyze the running average of your total stops and total piece count delivered (from this you can also calculate your "pieces per stop" - divide piece count by stop total). This statistic will be a bit skewed, since Express gives additional "stop" credit for ASR and DSR deliveries (I'm sure the Express manager that posts here occasionally can give the exact "bump" in reported stop count for this). I'm sure you've noticed a difference between the stops you sign into dispatch with and the stops you are credited with on your time card - this is why.
Express is concerned with a falling "pieces per stop" statistic, since it reflects a drop in Courier efficiency. It takes a hell of a lot less time to get off 150 pieces in 75 stops (2 pieces per stop average) as opposed to 100 stops (1.5 pieces per stop average). For Express, the revenue is the same (150 pieces), BUT the time the Courier is on the clock to get those pieces off INCREASES with the higher stop count - resulting in increased labor cost, something they DON'T like. This is why Express charges the resi surcharge - they are attempting to recover the additional cost of delivering those single pieces to resi stops (Express LOVES having stops with 10+ pieces delivered at a pop).
This will give you an unbiased tool to gauge just how volume on your route is varying. There is a historical trend for volumes to drop during the summer months, so you can't directly compare what you did say in April, to what you are doing now.
If you notice that you are "missing" SOS from a particular shipper, then what may be happening is that shipper may have been "poached" by UPS, and that volume is moving on a brown truck instead of a white truck. You obviously know both the recipients and shippers of your route volume, so if you notice volume (that is traditionally overnight) from a certain shipper that is "missing", you can be confident that it went to UPS.
One cannot take variations in a single route, and generalize to Express as a whole with that observation- there are just too many variables in play between what is happening on a single route and what is happening to Express as a whole. If the local economy where you are delivering has tanked, then recipients may be paying for deferred service instead of overnight service for their shipments - again, just another possible explanation for local variations in volume and service level.
What you need to be looking for are drops in total piece count and decline in total number of ES pieces you move. If you start to see a dramatic decrease in the number of ES pieces you are delivering, then you can assume that something is up. This should occur sometime between late July and possibly as late as September of this year.
There hasn't been any move on FedEx's part to "shift" overnight volumes. Check if Office in your area is picking up volume with its Cheetah service. This will pull overnight volume out of Express - but it will be LOCAL volume only (volume originating and destined to locations within a metro area). I haven't heard about any ramping up of Cheetah (beyond market testing) as of yet.
Another thing to do, is to keep track of your TOTAL piece count. If your total piece count for the day is running within a narrow long-term average (but you notice a drop in SOS volume), then shippers are choosing non-overnight as opposed to SOS service (trying to save some money).
What you should do, is to keep a small "journal", and merely record the date, your total piece count and stop count (I did this along with recording my time card clock in and out times). It only takes a few seconds at the end of each day to record this data from your computer print out time card. Then what you can do is analyze the running average of your total stops and total piece count delivered (from this you can also calculate your "pieces per stop" - divide piece count by stop total). This statistic will be a bit skewed, since Express gives additional "stop" credit for ASR and DSR deliveries (I'm sure the Express manager that posts here occasionally can give the exact "bump" in reported stop count for this). I'm sure you've noticed a difference between the stops you sign into dispatch with and the stops you are credited with on your time card - this is why.
Express is concerned with a falling "pieces per stop" statistic, since it reflects a drop in Courier efficiency. It takes a hell of a lot less time to get off 150 pieces in 75 stops (2 pieces per stop average) as opposed to 100 stops (1.5 pieces per stop average). For Express, the revenue is the same (150 pieces), BUT the time the Courier is on the clock to get those pieces off INCREASES with the higher stop count - resulting in increased labor cost, something they DON'T like. This is why Express charges the resi surcharge - they are attempting to recover the additional cost of delivering those single pieces to resi stops (Express LOVES having stops with 10+ pieces delivered at a pop).
This will give you an unbiased tool to gauge just how volume on your route is varying. There is a historical trend for volumes to drop during the summer months, so you can't directly compare what you did say in April, to what you are doing now.
If you notice that you are "missing" SOS from a particular shipper, then what may be happening is that shipper may have been "poached" by UPS, and that volume is moving on a brown truck instead of a white truck. You obviously know both the recipients and shippers of your route volume, so if you notice volume (that is traditionally overnight) from a certain shipper that is "missing", you can be confident that it went to UPS.
One cannot take variations in a single route, and generalize to Express as a whole with that observation- there are just too many variables in play between what is happening on a single route and what is happening to Express as a whole. If the local economy where you are delivering has tanked, then recipients may be paying for deferred service instead of overnight service for their shipments - again, just another possible explanation for local variations in volume and service level.
What you need to be looking for are drops in total piece count and decline in total number of ES pieces you move. If you start to see a dramatic decrease in the number of ES pieces you are delivering, then you can assume that something is up. This should occur sometime between late July and possibly as late as September of this year.
thedownhillEXPRESS
Well-Known Member
I'm talking our entire station volume.
Sort went down about 20 minutes earlier than usual.
Not just sos, entire volume, xs, e2 etc.
Just seems like something didn't feel right.
But you know alot more than me.....
Sort went down about 20 minutes earlier than usual.
Not just sos, entire volume, xs, e2 etc.
Just seems like something didn't feel right.
But you know alot more than me.....
LTFedExer
Well-Known Member
Our volume has been steadily declining for a while now. Sorts been going down 20-30 earlier as well.
UpstateNYUPSer(Ret)
Well-Known Member
One of your co-workers told me today that he had 30 P-1's to get off by 1030 with a 945 left bldg time. To put it in perspective I had 14 NDA's to get off by 1030 with a 920 left bldg time.
Ricochet1a
Well-Known Member
Ask your station managers to get numbers on average daily pieces delivered for your station this month, and a years ago this month. There will most assuredly be a slight decline, but nothing resembling the "bottom falling out".
There is typically a decline in volume during the summer months. Again, get your managers to pull up average daily numbers for June 2011 and for June 2012, I'd bet that the volume decline will be less than 7%, most likely only 3-4%.
Another metric to check volume, is to get the average cube for cans leaving the station in the afternoons to the ramps. Getting stats for a year ago would take some work, but those who work the reload would be able to give a decent indication as to how outbound volumes are comparing to "usual".
There is typically a decline in volume during the summer months. Again, get your managers to pull up average daily numbers for June 2011 and for June 2012, I'd bet that the volume decline will be less than 7%, most likely only 3-4%.
Another metric to check volume, is to get the average cube for cans leaving the station in the afternoons to the ramps. Getting stats for a year ago would take some work, but those who work the reload would be able to give a decent indication as to how outbound volumes are comparing to "usual".
DOWNTRODDEN IN TEXAS
Well-Known Member
See, that's odd. My station seems to be getting busier and busier, sort down around 0815-0825 with an 0625 start nearly every day. They keep saying our volume is down but we sure don't see it...that and too many couriers and not enough trucks.
Same with us...God Bless Texas!!
chargerlou
Well-Known Member
Thx for all the posts they made me late starter so I come in at 825 I get no info from managers. They sent out a message today that we had to have 2 Leads turned in tomorrow..The writing is on the wall they are hiding something..
LTFedExer
Well-Known Member
They told us that last week. I turned in none. Haven't heard a word yet.
DOWNTRODDEN IN TEXAS
Well-Known Member
Neither have I..but I only go to the same 5 stops every day and they use 98% FredEx, about half Express/half Ground so I was exempted by our Lead On person..lol
SmithBarney
Well-Known Member
we had a "sales" meeting with 3 regional sales people last week, and they openly stated that they "SELL" ground first, and Express is kinda an as needed basis.
That's because that is the market, they'd sell the **** out of Express if they knew they could go into a company and tell them to sign on the dotted line.
No that is right. Go find a customer that has express packages that needs a carrier and bring in your Sales Rep and they'll do business. No reason to make a non-debatable issues, debatable. You are saying an Operating Company in Fedex doesn't want business for itself. That makes no sense. None.
Ricochet1a
Well-Known Member
What FedEx sales WON'T do, is ask that customer what terms they are receiving from UPS for their overnight shipping, then come in with a quote 5-10% lower. They simply WON'T do that. UPS sales does this all the time.
If a Courier gives a lead for this hypothetical shipper, FedEx sales will verify the expected volume of shipments, then give a discount from published rates and that is it. They won't even try to beat the UPS rate.
If for some reason the FedEx quote is less than the UPS quote, the shipper may indeed shift carriers.
Many times, the discounts are very competitive, so the shipper may end up bouncing back and forth between carriers. Many times, what keeps the account with one company or the other isn't the absolute rate being received, it is the perception of service by the shipper, as to which company is easier to deal with. FedEx tries to claim its sales and account reps are the best to deal with... they are not.
There is one VERY specific reason why customers detest having to deal with FedEx for ALL of their shipping - Express and Ground operate separately whereas UPS is completely integrated (air and ground volume pickup and delivery).
When I was a Courier, I knew quite a few customers who were lost to UPS because they couldn't send both Express and Ground shipments out with me - I refused to touch Ground volume. They didn't want the hassle of calling in for an oncall pickup (to be charged for an oncall pickup) for Ground service, when in their minds, a "FedEx driver" was already coming to their site everyday to pickup their overnight volume. They knew it wasn't an issue with UPS - so why in the hell was it an issue for FedEx.
We know it was due to Fred's desire to have and eat his cake too - the customers couldn't make sense of why a guy wearing a brown uniform could pickup all of their UPS volume without difficulty (regardless of how it was to get there), but they had to jump through hoops and get charged an extra amount for an "on-call" Ground pickup. Many just said "to hell with it", and went Brown - I didn't blame them at all...
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No one is arguing that. What some have said here in the past couple days is.
Fedex isn't selling Express.
Fedex won't discount Express.
Alluding that they won't sell Express but push them to ground.
All the above is incorrect. However you are correct that Fedex has price points, now like any company and this does swing, companies at different times get hungry for new business, buyers know this and could Fedex Express be coming into another period like that? Perhaps, perhaps not.
Ricochet1a
Well-Known Member
It is getting into definition of words... specifically: What constitutes "selling", what is a "real" discount and what is merely expected industry standard.
Finally, the issue of whether FedEx sales is giving discounts below industry standards for Ground product while not doing so for Express product.
I define selling as not only making a single offer of final price (here's my offer, take it or leave it), but attempting to BEAT the price offered by the competition. If I stick signs on a lot of cars I may want to sell stating one price, and someone across the street places signs on their exact same cars with a lower price - I'm NOT selling cars. I may end up picking up the occasional sucker sale, but I'm not selling cars - the guy across the street is. About all I'm doing is wasting my time making signs.
This is what FedEx is doing with Express right now. They are offering "take it or leave it" pricing - but UPS is offering a lower price whenever they really want to "poach" a potential customer.
The converse is true with Ground. Because the margins for Ground product are so damn high right now, FedEx sales can and DOES offer cut rate pricing. They will ask customers what rate they are receiving from UPS, then they will come back with a lower price quote to grab that volume. Put simply, FedEx is able to grab increased share of the "routine" package market due to the extremely low wages they compensate their "employees".
This is classic economics, FedEx sales has the ability to undercut UPS due to the structure of Ground. They can't do this with Express, since Express is barely making a profit right now - there is no room (under current structure) to offer discounts above industry standard. FedEx sales KNOWS this.
This is why FedEx ISN'T "selling" Express right now (they make a take it or leave it offer), BUT they are "selling" Ground every opportunity they can (they actively try to undercut UPS pricing levels).
All these leads that Express Couriers are to supposedly turn in AREN'T going to boost Express volume (they may get the occasional "sucker sale"), these leads are going to try to boost Ground volume.
