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<blockquote data-quote="UnconTROLLed" data-source="post: 1510279" data-attributes="member: 18708"><p>Snippet from NWS GYX, pretty strong wording.</p><p></p><p>"THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z</p><p>TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST</p><p>LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD</p><p>ACROSS THE AREA. <strong>DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO</strong></p><p><strong>MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT</strong></p><p><strong>TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD</strong></p><p><strong>WARNINGS LOOK GOOD.</strong> ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD</p><p>CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE</p><p>OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER</p><p>HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...<strong>TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND</strong></p><p><strong>LIFE THREATENING.</strong></p><p></p><p>THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON</p><p>THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS</p><p>STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT</p><p>TIMES."</p><p></p><p>And BOX - oohh these are soon to be legendary NWS AFD's!</p><p></p><p>AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF<strong> TWO BANDING LOCATIONS</strong>...ONE</p><p>FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER</p><p>CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR</p><p>NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT</p><p>ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST</p><p>INDICATE THAT <strong>WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL</strong></p><p><strong>LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3</strong></p><p><strong>IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY</strong></p><p><strong>BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE</strong></p><p>AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN</p><p>THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE</p><p>SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS.</p><p></p><p><img src="/community/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/smile.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":)" title="Smile :)" data-shortname=":)" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="UnconTROLLed, post: 1510279, member: 18708"] Snippet from NWS GYX, pretty strong wording. "THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS LOOK TO BE ROUGHLY 12Z TO 21Z TUE. HERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SNWFL AND WINDS LOOKS MOST LIKELY. THE ECMWF HAS A 65+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 900 MB LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE AREA. [b]DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS TO MIX DOWN FAIRLY EASILY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNWFL AROUND THAT TIME...AND POTENTIALLY 45-50 KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN...BLIZZARD WARNINGS LOOK GOOD.[/b] ELSEWHERE COULD SEE BRIEF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BUT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND...OUTSIDE OF ERN HILLSBOROUGH. WHERE THE COMBINATION OF 1 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR RATES AND 50 KT GUSTS OCCURS...[b]TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING.[/b] THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL AS MODELS BEGIN TO HONE IN ON THE MESOSCALE DETAILS. SOME SURPRISES ARE STILL LIKELY WITH THIS STORM...AS THE VERY DYNAMIC EVENTS CAN CAUSE NWP TO STRUGGLE AT TIMES." And BOX - oohh these are soon to be legendary NWS AFD's! AS STATED THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF[b] TWO BANDING LOCATIONS[/b]...ONE FROM TYPICAL MID-LVL DEFORMATION AND NEGATIVE EPV...WITH THE OTHER CLOSER TO THE SFC INVOF OF THE COASTAL FRONT ACROSS RI-SE MA OR NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WHILE NAILING THESE DOWN IS DIFFICULT ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT...MESOSCALE MODELS DO AT THE VERY LEAST INDICATE THAT [b]WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS...DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR A MAXIMUM AND WITH BANDS OF VERY NEGATIVE EPV...2-3 IN/HR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN EITHER OF THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE DAY ON TUE[/b] AS THESE BANDS SLOWLY PIVOT AND BEGIN A SLOW SHIFT TO THE E. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT...THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A FOOT IN 6 HOURS OR EVEN LESS. :) [/QUOTE]
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