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<blockquote data-quote="wkmac" data-source="post: 715914" data-attributes="member: 2189"><p>You are correct that we've been here before and pardon me if I take a little license here but most people when they say this they mean similar circumstances to either the great depression or in respect to our national debt, just after WW2 in 1946'. Let's take the 1946' point as I want to throw out an idea to consider in how we might be seeing a completely new economic condition.</p><p> </p><p>In 1946', the world's industrial productive capacity lay in ruins from war except in North America and Australia. The US not only controlled almost all industrial capacity and an enormous source of food production but they also controlled economic destiny via that for one the United Nations was our brainchild, we owned the economic means such as the International Monetary Fund (an outgrowth of BrettonWoods) and a huge influence on what was then emerging as the so-called global economy. As this global economy took shape, someone had to provide the knowledge base eg US academia, someone the industrial capacity eg US corp. industry, someone in finance eg US banking and because of the destruction of war that left us in a almost lone competitive advantage, we were the one stop shop (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_plan" target="_blank"><span style="color: red">Marshall Plan</span></a>) for the globe if you will. Over the next few decades, that near monopoly advantage over taxed our productive output so whatever surplus we could create was swooped up by the highest international bidder making our economy almost seem without end. But by the 1970's, that global advantage started ticking away as other nations rebuilt their industrial base, their wage costs being lower and thus the mighty American found itself in a real competition. Because America's model was built on a post WW2 framework, it suffered and fractured until the once great industrial productive capacity shut it's doors and moved elsewhere. In truth, it didn't as much move as it did rebalance itself to new norms and realities. </p><p> </p><p>The very driver of the engine that drove us out of, as you correctly say, "as a country what we've seen before" is not there now. We left the industrial revolution behind and the same conditions that took us out of crisis then are not there now. Even worse is an overall population deeply not only in it's own personal debt but then saddled with their share of public debt that sees no end in sight because the larger political machine who swaps drivers at some scheduled rate (elections) refuses to see the need for any cutback other than to gore the ox of the otherside who in turn fight to the death to prevent it and nothing in the end really happens. The problem only worsens and at some point the science of economics and history will take over and the whole thing will collaspe. Typically, these happen in an atmosphere of political violence, <strong><u>by all sides</u></strong>, and whatever emerges in the settling dust is usually some form of totaliterian system because it's the only way to re-establish order and for those in power to protect themselves. Most people at that point are so tired of the violence and so broken down that they accept anything as an alternative to what they had. History sadly is a continuing broken record of this type upheavel and if we somehow dis-illusion ourselves that we are better than that, you better read your history and think again. I feel like chunking eggs at us when we sing about being the "home of the brave." What a big load of <img src="/community/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/group1/censored2.gif" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":censored2:" title="Censored2 :censored2:" data-shortname=":censored2:" /> that is!</p><p> </p><p>There are many naysayers who claim the economy is in a lull and will collaspe. There is science and fact to support that but the neo-Keynesians seem able to pull more and more rabbits out of the hat so we could get a breather for a decade or 2 but one day the hat will empty of rabbits and when that day comes it won't be pretty at all. I'd rather get it over now, wipe the slate clean for our kids and let them rebuild fresh so to speak but this would require statesmen and honest men who seek not power but seek goodness and good fortune. We have no such men these days so my guess is one day our children, grand children and great grandchild will curse us for the cowards and worthless humans that we truly are!</p><p> </p><p>I use the term neo-Keynesian as I don't even think Keynes would approve of economic policy these days being done in his name!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="wkmac, post: 715914, member: 2189"] You are correct that we've been here before and pardon me if I take a little license here but most people when they say this they mean similar circumstances to either the great depression or in respect to our national debt, just after WW2 in 1946'. Let's take the 1946' point as I want to throw out an idea to consider in how we might be seeing a completely new economic condition. In 1946', the world's industrial productive capacity lay in ruins from war except in North America and Australia. The US not only controlled almost all industrial capacity and an enormous source of food production but they also controlled economic destiny via that for one the United Nations was our brainchild, we owned the economic means such as the International Monetary Fund (an outgrowth of BrettonWoods) and a huge influence on what was then emerging as the so-called global economy. As this global economy took shape, someone had to provide the knowledge base eg US academia, someone the industrial capacity eg US corp. industry, someone in finance eg US banking and because of the destruction of war that left us in a almost lone competitive advantage, we were the one stop shop ([URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_plan"][COLOR=red]Marshall Plan[/COLOR][/URL]) for the globe if you will. Over the next few decades, that near monopoly advantage over taxed our productive output so whatever surplus we could create was swooped up by the highest international bidder making our economy almost seem without end. But by the 1970's, that global advantage started ticking away as other nations rebuilt their industrial base, their wage costs being lower and thus the mighty American found itself in a real competition. Because America's model was built on a post WW2 framework, it suffered and fractured until the once great industrial productive capacity shut it's doors and moved elsewhere. In truth, it didn't as much move as it did rebalance itself to new norms and realities. The very driver of the engine that drove us out of, as you correctly say, "as a country what we've seen before" is not there now. We left the industrial revolution behind and the same conditions that took us out of crisis then are not there now. Even worse is an overall population deeply not only in it's own personal debt but then saddled with their share of public debt that sees no end in sight because the larger political machine who swaps drivers at some scheduled rate (elections) refuses to see the need for any cutback other than to gore the ox of the otherside who in turn fight to the death to prevent it and nothing in the end really happens. The problem only worsens and at some point the science of economics and history will take over and the whole thing will collaspe. Typically, these happen in an atmosphere of political violence, [B][U]by all sides[/U][/B], and whatever emerges in the settling dust is usually some form of totaliterian system because it's the only way to re-establish order and for those in power to protect themselves. Most people at that point are so tired of the violence and so broken down that they accept anything as an alternative to what they had. History sadly is a continuing broken record of this type upheavel and if we somehow dis-illusion ourselves that we are better than that, you better read your history and think again. I feel like chunking eggs at us when we sing about being the "home of the brave." What a big load of :censored: that is! There are many naysayers who claim the economy is in a lull and will collaspe. There is science and fact to support that but the neo-Keynesians seem able to pull more and more rabbits out of the hat so we could get a breather for a decade or 2 but one day the hat will empty of rabbits and when that day comes it won't be pretty at all. I'd rather get it over now, wipe the slate clean for our kids and let them rebuild fresh so to speak but this would require statesmen and honest men who seek not power but seek goodness and good fortune. We have no such men these days so my guess is one day our children, grand children and great grandchild will curse us for the cowards and worthless humans that we truly are! I use the term neo-Keynesian as I don't even think Keynes would approve of economic policy these days being done in his name! [/QUOTE]
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