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<blockquote data-quote="Jones" data-source="post: 378647" data-attributes="member: 4805"><p>Of course an oil company spokesman would say that, he stands to make a lot of money if the ban is lifted so he has an interest in generating enthusiasm for lifting it. In fact that's pretty much the only thing anyone can guarantee will happen if the ban is lifted: oil companies will make money selling that oil (at rates set on the world market, btw. Remember that in a free market they have no reason to sell oil to the US any cheaper than they can sell it to the Chinese).</p><p></p><p>Once again, here is the administration's own assessment for offshore drilling from a report released in 2007 (this report assumes leasing would begin in 2012, when the current moratorium expires. You can knock 4 years off all the dates to assume for the ban lifted in 2008):</p><p></p><p><em>The projections in the OCS access case indicate that <strong>access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030.</strong> Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day. For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher—2.4 million barrels per day in the OCS access case compared with 2.2 million barrels per day in the reference case (Figure 20). <strong>Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.</strong></em></p><p><em><strong></strong></em></p><p><em><strong></strong></em>But if you would rather take the advice of some daytrader on Satellite's route, or an oil industry guy who is making record profits (off you and your car) and wants to make sure that we all stay hooked on what he has to sell, be my guest.</p><p></p><p>The above scenario assumes a 5 year span from leasing to production ( hey, it's better than 10!), but really what that means is that oil will all be gone that much quicker and we'll be right back where we started. Except for the oil companies that is, they'll be a couple billion dollars richer <img src="/community/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/FeltTip/happy-very.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":happy-very:" title="Happy Very :happy-very:" data-shortname=":happy-very:" /></p><p></p><p>I do agree with you on nuclear power. At least we don't have to import it.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Jones, post: 378647, member: 4805"] Of course an oil company spokesman would say that, he stands to make a lot of money if the ban is lifted so he has an interest in generating enthusiasm for lifting it. In fact that's pretty much the only thing anyone can guarantee will happen if the ban is lifted: oil companies will make money selling that oil (at rates set on the world market, btw. Remember that in a free market they have no reason to sell oil to the US any cheaper than they can sell it to the Chinese). Once again, here is the administration's own assessment for offshore drilling from a report released in 2007 (this report assumes leasing would begin in 2012, when the current moratorium expires. You can knock 4 years off all the dates to assume for the ban lifted in 2008): [I]The projections in the OCS access case indicate that [B]access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030.[/B] Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day. For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher—2.4 million barrels per day in the OCS access case compared with 2.2 million barrels per day in the reference case (Figure 20). [B]Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant. [/B][/I]But if you would rather take the advice of some daytrader on Satellite's route, or an oil industry guy who is making record profits (off you and your car) and wants to make sure that we all stay hooked on what he has to sell, be my guest. The above scenario assumes a 5 year span from leasing to production ( hey, it's better than 10!), but really what that means is that oil will all be gone that much quicker and we'll be right back where we started. Except for the oil companies that is, they'll be a couple billion dollars richer :happy-very: I do agree with you on nuclear power. At least we don't have to import it. [/QUOTE]
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