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<blockquote data-quote="1989" data-source="post: 663076" data-attributes="member: 10280">Re: Obamanation here today&quot;We&#039;re getting close to break even,&quot; says David Jones of DMJ Advisors, who sees weekly claims at the 400,000 level as a reliable dividing line between growth and contraction. &quot;It may be a little bit early.&quot;Based on that model and with claims falling an average of 75,000 a month since their winter peak of more than 600,000 that adds up to February at the earliest.Economists also caution that ups and downs in the retail workforce because of the holidays make December and January data a bit cloudy.&quot;There&#039;s a lot of seasonality here,&quot; Robert Barbera, chief economist at ITG, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1373764706&amp;play=1" target="_blank">told CNBC</a>.For that reason, economists like to average the months of December and January and February and March, in essence double checking the typically reliable four-week average. That won&#039;t be possible, however, until early April, when some say the economy could be churning out 250,000 a jobs a month.Timing aside, the job market may finally be clear of headwinds for the first time since 2007. Employers have cut payrolls and inventories to the bone, which will mean an inevitable adjustment. &quot;Firms are stretching the productivity of the workforce beyond its limits,&quot; says Pandl.Nevertheless, concerns about a largely jobless recovery have not been erased in all quarters.Ken Goldstein of the Conference Board says the earliest payrolls will turn positive is March and increases from thereon will be modest at best, in the 50,000-75,000-a-month range.&quot;We haven&#039;t just gone through a business cycle, we&#039;ve also gone through a major restructuring of the American economy,&quot; says Goldstein. &quot;In the the new cycle, there&#039;s a limit to how much companies can sell and make and therefore how many employees they can bring on.&quot;</blockquote>

[QUOTE="1989, post: 663076, member: 10280"] [b]Re: Obamanation here today[/b] "We're getting close to break even," says David Jones of DMJ Advisors, who sees weekly claims at the 400,000 level as a reliable dividing line between growth and contraction. "It may be a little bit early." Based on that model and with claims falling an average of 75,000 a month since their winter peak of more than 600,000 that adds up to February at the earliest. Economists also caution that ups and downs in the retail workforce because of the holidays make December and January data a bit cloudy. "There's a lot of seasonality here," Robert Barbera, chief economist at ITG, [B][B][URL="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1373764706&play=1"][B]told CNBC[/B][/URL][/B][/B]. For that reason, economists like to average the months of December and January and February and March, in essence double checking the typically reliable four-week average. That won't be possible, however, until early April, when some say the economy could be churning out 250,000 a jobs a month. Timing aside, the job market may finally be clear of headwinds for the first time since 2007. Employers have cut payrolls and inventories to the bone, which will mean an inevitable adjustment. "Firms are stretching the productivity of the workforce beyond its limits," says Pandl. Nevertheless, concerns about a largely jobless recovery have not been erased in all quarters. Ken Goldstein of the Conference Board says the earliest payrolls will turn positive is March and increases from thereon will be modest at best, in the 50,000-75,000-a-month range. "We haven't just gone through a business cycle, we've also gone through a major restructuring of the American economy," says Goldstein. "In the the new cycle, there's a limit to how much companies can sell and make and therefore how many employees they can bring on." [/QUOTE]

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