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Message: <blockquote data-quote="zubenelgenubi" data-source="post: 4458179" data-attributes="member: 63706"><p>The IMHE didn't put out it's predictive model until March 30th. And in the article she said the numbers could be much higher, than the 200,000, without containment methods. The IMHE's model is also the only one to call for healthy people staying home, which is proven to increase infection rates. The only model that seems to be close to reality is Oxford's, which assumed the virus had been circulating, undetected, months before the outbreak in Wuhan became known to the rest of the world.</p></blockquote><p></p>