I would put my money on UPS, however, not the entire 100K
as a matter of diversifying. Probably purchase about $50K in UPS, and other 50K in CD's in today's economy.
As far as the horse race, I would put my money on UPS, as our stock has declined and trended with the market, FDX has lost more value than UPS.
FDX has announced large layoffs of Freight drivers, to the tune of 900 and although UPS has closed sorts, the majority of layoffs, are part time employees. I do think FDX will always has the NextDayAir market share, but if and when this recession is over, they just might focus their attention on their market share of air products.
So that would give UPS an opportunity to pick up their ground and freight business.
UPS has in the past gotten through the Depression and a previous recession in the 80's. And in my opinion, although sometimes painful, the cost saving initiatives, generally strengthen UPS's position financially.
UPS has always look at long range financial planning, and in consolidating regions and districts since the 90's, UPS has realized real estate, equipment and managment savings.
UPS will continue to look for long and short range financial success, and emerge from the recession as strong as it was before the financial meltdown. It's in our blood, and that would be brown blood. JMO