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US 🇺🇸 Tariff China 🇨🇳 are we in a weaker position?
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<blockquote data-quote="newfie" data-source="post: 6109187" data-attributes="member: 58700"><p>while its difficult to completely quantify the cost impact these tactics china uses, it is substantially more than what we generally report through convententional means.</p><p></p><h3>Summary of Most Recent Cost Information (Tariff Avoidance Impact on Trade Deficit, 2025)</h3><p>China’s tariff avoidance tactics inflate the U.S.-China trade deficit by underreporting or misrepresenting Chinese imports. The official trade deficit is estimated at ~$375 billion for 2025, but the following tactics add significant costs:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Transshipment (e.g., via Vietnam, Mexico)</strong>: Adds ~$75–$100 billion in unreported Chinese imports by rerouting goods through third countries to evade tariffs.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>De Minimis Exploitation</strong>: Contributes ~$50 billion by leveraging tariff-free shipments under $800 (until May 2, 2025, when exemptions end for China).</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Undervaluing Shipments</strong>: Increases import value by ~$5–$10 billion through under-reported shipment values.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Tariff Engineering</strong>: Adds ~$5–$10 billion by reclassifying goods for lower tariffs.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Substantial Transformation</strong>: Contributes ~$10–$20 billion via processing in third countries to change origin status.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Foreign Trade Zones</strong>: Adds ~$5–$10 billion by processing goods in U.S. zones to avoid duties.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Routing via Canada</strong>: Increases imports by ~$15–$20 billion through USMCA loopholes.</li> </ul><h3>Total Cost Impact</h3> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Additional Imports</strong>: ~$150–$200 billion, with a midpoint of ~$180 billion.</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul"><strong>Adjusted Trade Deficit</strong>: The true U.S.-China trade deficit, accounting for these tactics, is estimated at <strong>$525–$575 billion</strong> (official $375 billion + $150–$200 billion), with a midpoint of <strong>$555 billion</strong>.</li> </ul></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="newfie, post: 6109187, member: 58700"] while its difficult to completely quantify the cost impact these tactics china uses, it is substantially more than what we generally report through convententional means. [HEADING=2]Summary of Most Recent Cost Information (Tariff Avoidance Impact on Trade Deficit, 2025)[/HEADING] China’s tariff avoidance tactics inflate the U.S.-China trade deficit by underreporting or misrepresenting Chinese imports. The official trade deficit is estimated at ~$375 billion for 2025, but the following tactics add significant costs: [LIST] [*][B]Transshipment (e.g., via Vietnam, Mexico)[/B]: Adds ~$75–$100 billion in unreported Chinese imports by rerouting goods through third countries to evade tariffs. [*][B]De Minimis Exploitation[/B]: Contributes ~$50 billion by leveraging tariff-free shipments under $800 (until May 2, 2025, when exemptions end for China). [*][B]Undervaluing Shipments[/B]: Increases import value by ~$5–$10 billion through under-reported shipment values. [*][B]Tariff Engineering[/B]: Adds ~$5–$10 billion by reclassifying goods for lower tariffs. [*][B]Substantial Transformation[/B]: Contributes ~$10–$20 billion via processing in third countries to change origin status. [*][B]Foreign Trade Zones[/B]: Adds ~$5–$10 billion by processing goods in U.S. zones to avoid duties. [*][B]Routing via Canada[/B]: Increases imports by ~$15–$20 billion through USMCA loopholes. [/LIST] [HEADING=2]Total Cost Impact[/HEADING] [LIST] [*][B]Additional Imports[/B]: ~$150–$200 billion, with a midpoint of ~$180 billion. [*][B]Adjusted Trade Deficit[/B]: The true U.S.-China trade deficit, accounting for these tactics, is estimated at [B]$525–$575 billion[/B] (official $375 billion + $150–$200 billion), with a midpoint of [B]$555 billion[/B]. [/LIST] [/QUOTE]
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