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Yield Curve is inverted....stocks plummeting...RECESSION is coming
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<blockquote data-quote="Non sequitur" data-source="post: 4177925" data-attributes="member: 31614"><p>ECRI (August 14, 2019):</p><p></p><p>Our research showed that the Fed achieved soft landings – as in 1995-96 – when it started rate cut cycles the same month the inflation downturn signals from the USFIG arrived. However, recessions followed when the rate cut cycles began with lags relative to those downturn signals. </p><p></p><p>In essence, what really seems to matter is not <em>when</em> the Fed <em>stops</em> rate hikes, but how promptly it <em>starts</em> the rate <em>cut</em> cycle following the inflation downturn signal. </p><p></p><p><strong>In the current cycle, that inflation downturn signal arrived in September 2018. But the rate cut cycle has only just begun – with a ten-month lag. As we noted many months ago, over the past 35 years such belated rate cuts have always been associated with recession.</strong></p><p></p><p>What was the president saying last fall?</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Non sequitur, post: 4177925, member: 31614"] ECRI (August 14, 2019): Our research showed that the Fed achieved soft landings – as in 1995-96 – when it started rate cut cycles the same month the inflation downturn signals from the USFIG arrived. However, recessions followed when the rate cut cycles began with lags relative to those downturn signals. In essence, what really seems to matter is not [I]when[/I] the Fed [I]stops[/I] rate hikes, but how promptly it [I]starts[/I] the rate [I]cut[/I] cycle following the inflation downturn signal. [B]In the current cycle, that inflation downturn signal arrived in September 2018. But the rate cut cycle has only just begun – with a ten-month lag. As we noted many months ago, over the past 35 years such belated rate cuts have always been associated with recession.[/B] What was the president saying last fall? [/QUOTE]
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