Analyst Downgrades

Discussion in 'The Archives' started by peacock71, Oct 10, 2002.

  1. peacock71

    peacock71 Guest

    CSFB is the latest following the herd. In a market driven by greed investors would look elsewhere for faster gains, in this market driven by fear (a beer market...ha!), UPS should attract investors...so....

    It will be interesting to see if these downgrades are validated when we announce earnings. Usually analysts downgrade after bad news, is their timing here ominous or prescient, or just CYA?

    My expectation is that we will be on target with earnings this quarter, and begin to guide higher for the future based on growth in Air, Intl, and Logistics businesses, as well as cost management the likes of Wall Street hasn't seen before.

    Go UPS![​IMG]
    P71
     
  2. wkmac

    wkmac Guest

    P71,
    I hear what you're saying but I see where the Wall Street folks are coming from. The coming Christmas season is not going to be a big one and peak is very important to UPS' overall performance. Also the economy is not exactly running on all 8 holes, to borrow a little racing slang, at this time and everyone is looking at next year for the turn around so from that standpoint the analyst's have played down both UPS and FedEx because they are already towards the top of their current valuations.

    HOWEVER! You knew that was coming didn't you![​IMG]

    A couple of years ago, the Dow and S&P were at alltime highs but UPS was struggling to maintain itself in the mid $50's. Today, the broader markets are down 40% from those lofty levels but UPS is up 10 to 15% and is maintaining a pretty steady level in the low to mid $60's. No one knows how long it will be before the broader markets return to those lofty levels but when they do I believe UPS will be in a good position to ride up with the market this time rather than flounder like it did the first 18 to 24 months after coming to market. Next 6 months to a year UPS is not that great with better investments with great upside out there but long term (3 to 5 years) UPS may be a real buying opportunity right now.

    Investors have lost faith in the Brokerage Houses so their folks are looking for quick, short term gains rather than the long haul. If we keep doing our jobs and growing the company we won't become instant millionaires but we will grow our net worth and do so with more peace of mind. JMO!

    Back at YA![​IMG][​IMG]
     
  3. peacock71

    peacock71 Guest

    Analysts pretend to look at the long term, bit the focus is to service traders and others who trade frequently. They do yield management just like everybody else. They see UPS with a lot of shares to trade with a price that is somewhat extended compared to the rest of the blue chips, that is temporary and a trading opportunity. They want to generate volume (stock trades). My guess is that in THEIR retirement accounts and college funds you will find GE, IBM, UPS and the like...

    UPS will make numbers ...[​IMG]

    Go UPS!
    P71