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Another Historic Snowstorm Blizzard- Mid-Atlantic- possibly New England
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<blockquote data-quote="UnconTROLLed" data-source="post: 1103314" data-attributes="member: 18708"><p>For Boston? My forecast is that the tv/media outlets will get the forecast wrong three times between now and wednesday. <img src="/community/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/wink.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" data-shortname=";)" /> Which is why i don't take shot in the dark stabs without confidence. </p><p></p><p> I can tell you that even phd level meteorologists are having a very difficult time with this, so it'll interesting to see unfold. The generally most reliable and stable global model, ECMWF - which was steady for no impacts in SNE for the past 4 to 5 days- has been changing it's tune the past two days, especially it's individual ensembles, which are the model running itself in many modes with slightly different intialized data. </p><p></p><p> The usually erratic and inferior U.S. GFS (global forecast system) model, provided through the NCEP EMC, has shown an all-out blizzard for several runs in a row. This was the sole outlier. It was largely ignored until yesterday early today, when other models have been more aligned with a further northeast track.</p><p></p><p> It's possible that models converge onto the blizzard idea - and that's what we see in the media tomorrow/Tuesday, then the models cave back in southeast and do not double down but back down. That's the flip-flop possibility to watch for.</p><p></p><p>Also, could be mostly rain. There are many "outs" or things that can go wrong, especially in March, so many extra options on the table.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="UnconTROLLed, post: 1103314, member: 18708"] For Boston? My forecast is that the tv/media outlets will get the forecast wrong three times between now and wednesday. ;) Which is why i don't take shot in the dark stabs without confidence. I can tell you that even phd level meteorologists are having a very difficult time with this, so it'll interesting to see unfold. The generally most reliable and stable global model, ECMWF - which was steady for no impacts in SNE for the past 4 to 5 days- has been changing it's tune the past two days, especially it's individual ensembles, which are the model running itself in many modes with slightly different intialized data. The usually erratic and inferior U.S. GFS (global forecast system) model, provided through the NCEP EMC, has shown an all-out blizzard for several runs in a row. This was the sole outlier. It was largely ignored until yesterday early today, when other models have been more aligned with a further northeast track. It's possible that models converge onto the blizzard idea - and that's what we see in the media tomorrow/Tuesday, then the models cave back in southeast and do not double down but back down. That's the flip-flop possibility to watch for. Also, could be mostly rain. There are many "outs" or things that can go wrong, especially in March, so many extra options on the table. [/QUOTE]
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Another Historic Snowstorm Blizzard- Mid-Atlantic- possibly New England
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