El Nino weather

Discussion in 'Life After Brown' started by ups1990, Jul 19, 2009.

  1. ups1990

    ups1990 Well-Known Member

    Summer 2009 is turning out to be a very hot and humid one. Is this the El Nino cycle or La Nina? I think El Nino, is the one where the waters of the Pacific warms up.

    I remember as a kid in grade school going to swimming classes and a boy in the class making the water very warm, had to swim away from him.:sick:
     
  2. UpstateNYUPSer

    UpstateNYUPSer Very proud grandfather.

    Summer 2009 is turning out to be a very hot and humid one. Is this the El Nino cycle or La Nina? I think El Nino, is the one where the waters of the Pacific warms up.

    We are having quite the opposite effect as we have yet to have what you could call a summer. It has been cool and rainy.


    I remember as a kid in grade school going to swimming classes and a boy in the class making the water very warm, had to swim away from him.:sick:

    City Driver went to your school?
     
  3. moreluck

    moreluck golden ticket member

    They say we are headed for ElNino with a very rainy winter ahead.
    I'm reading about 111 degrees in Vegas, Phoenix and hi 90's in the San Fernando Valley.....100's in Riverside.

    We have barely reached the 80's so far this summer on the coast. I love moderate weather!! Very comfortable & with a breeze.
     
  4. storm4

    storm4 New Member

    Last I saw we are in a La Nina state and possibly heading into an El Nino state. Either way, it's not pretty. La Nina will bring lots of snow in Winter and El Nino will wash out roads and possibly towns... The cycle of life continues... What's the next cycle for the economy? Someone posted 9000 cuts to be announced this week and economically speaking UPS has always been a leader. I hope it's not true as if it is, the fallout for the rest of the country will really take a dive after. If it's just a move to raise stock prices as cuts normally do, at this time, it's a very selfish plan. Does anyone know more?
     
  5. ups1990

    ups1990 Well-Known Member

    Still waiting for the 9000 UPS job cuts and we're in August, almost September. Look as if it might be indeed a wet winter for So Cal.
     
  6. klein

    klein Für Meno :)

    El Nino is on it's way.
    Vancouver Winter Olympics might be very well effected by this (no snow).
    But they do have snowmaking equiptment, but can only do so much in warmer weather...
    So, they are somewhat very worried.

    Btw: Canada is well prepared for this, might be the first time we are #1 in the medal standings, ever !
     
  7. rod

    rod retired and happy

    Bring it on!!! Last El Nino we had gave us tons of snow and a really mild winter. The older I get the more I hate 20- 30 below.
     
  8. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    This summer has become an El Nino.

    Last year through basically this winter was La Nina. The SST trends have been up, up, up and we are in a Nino now.

    What is important though is that despite the Nino, the atmosphere does have some lag-time with regards to the onset of El Nino conditions and global influences. Throughout this spring and summer as the Nino has set in, the temperature and precip anomalies have been more behaving like a Nina. That is not really surprising.

    Good example will be the tropical cyclone threat along the east coast of the US. First began in early July with a sub tropical system riding the east coast. That was a good indicator of (1) a more Nina type pattern and (2) the possible path of other systems. Last important event was Bill which was a close call. And next up will be Danny ( we will be hearing from him in coming days)

    But anyway, for the east coast - the trend will be - SE states colder than normal winter (which is almost a given with any Nino), and depending on the SST pattern in the tropical Pacific - which region has the greatest anomalies - and also the level of anomalies - a weak/moderate Nino nearly always yields a stronger than normal subtropical jet stream which means snowier and colder than average mid-atlantic and new england.

    As far as some analogs go, and has been talked about - considering other global patterns that were similar to 2009 , were 77-78 (blockbuster winter), 68-69, 57-58. 1991-1992 is another possibility as well as far as El Nino goes.

    Here is a good starting site on El Nino/La Nina and pacific SST patterns.
    http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

    And here are the ENSO averaged measurements from 1950-today

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
     
  9. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Also of note- precip and temp patterns have been an interesting signal so far this summer, esp here in New England.

    1938, 1954, 1976, 1913 and 1991 all have come up in analogs regarding temperatures ( below to well below), precip (above to well above) and also in some cases El Nino ('38, 76, '91). Not sure of '13 Nino/Nina though I would imagine there are stats out there.

    All of the above years had hurricane landfalls in New England. (38 Long Island Express, '54 Carol/Edna sisters, '76 Belle, 1913 hurricane #3, 1991 Bob)

    Danny may be a future Belle/ Bob? Stay tuned!

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