TS Sandy

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by texan, Oct 23, 2012.

  1. texan

    texan Well-Known Member

    Hope this does not hit the US.

    By Friday, Sandy should be in the Central or Eastern Bahamas, and wind shear may increase further, making
    Sandy more of a hybrid subtropical storm. It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling Sandy
    to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated
    steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure
    could build in over Sandy, and force the storm to the northwest, with a potential threat
    to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model
    [​IMG]
    Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Sandy forms south of Jamaica; TD 19 forms in middle Atlantic | Weather Underground
     
  2. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    TS Sandy should strengthen over the next 24hr. Maybe some rapid intensification late today through tomorrow am.

    The most important features in the track of Sandy are the retrograding ocean low across the N Atlantic, and the PNA ridging/ AK vortex. These are all coming into play between D3-4, and the data is simply too sparse and truncated by that point to be confident in either of the above features.

    by D5-7, it's a crapshoot.

    One important rule in forecasting is to weigh forecasts towards data trends. All of yesterdays 12z and now 0z models trended weaker with the PNA ridging, stronger with AK vortex. Nearly all of 'em trended east with Sandys track. That is telling and if that trend continues another few cycles, Sandy is nothing more than a fish for Bermuda to deal with.

    Having said that, it's still early. ;)
     
  3. menotyou

    menotyou bella amicizia

    It will create a messing couple of days, though.
     
  4. UpstateNYUPSer

    UpstateNYUPSer Very proud grandfather.

    TS Sandy will go out to sea.
     
  5. menotyou

    menotyou bella amicizia

    Well, now. He has Spoken. He who was wrong about Hugo hitting Syracuse. I think I'll listen to Sleeve.
     
  6. Baba gounj

    Baba gounj pensioner

    me,too.
     
  7. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Trick or treat! :>
     
  8. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    12z euro shows Sandy rapidly intensify over the gulf stream and punching :censored2: deep into the stratosphere, hooks NW as it's absorbed by the incoming trof and slams into Block Island RI to Groton, CT. Would be a storm for the ages.

    937mb at landfall - 27.67". LOL

    Unlikely to happen exactly like that, but that's what it shows.

    f144.jpg
    f168.jpg
    f144.jpgf168.jpg
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2012
  9. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    f156.jpg
    And for comparison, here are the gfs ensembles from 12z for Tues 10/30 156hr.
    f156.jpg
     
  10. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    And finally, HPC chiming in. This is particularly verbose and specific for a D3-7 HPC discussion.
     
  11. UpstateNYUPSer

    UpstateNYUPSer Very proud grandfather.

    (It's going out to sea)
     
  12. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    repeating same joke over and over, hoping for a new result?
     
  13. UpstateNYUPSer

    UpstateNYUPSer Very proud grandfather.

    (It's not a joke.)
     
  14. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    This is from EVT, BOX NWS office.
     
  15. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Not at all dissimilar to the "perfect storm" evolution w/ Hurricane Grace, if any of these ensemble members are close to reality.

    Sandy.jpg
    Sandy.jpg
     
  16. Baba gounj

    Baba gounj pensioner

    I love to see it make landfall on top of a small compound in Hyannis.
     
  17. texan

    texan Well-Known Member

    Sandy a potential threat to New England
    By Friday, Sandy should be over warm waters in the Central Bahamas, but only modest re-intensification by
    10 - 20 mph should occur, due to high wind shear.

    At that point, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure
    approaching the U.S. East Coast. The trough may steer Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the
    GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models.

    However, an alternative solution, shown by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for the trough to inject a
    large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits New England
    early next week with a central pressure of 948 mb and winds near hurricane-force.

    The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are off by a full day in their predictions of when the storm would
    arrive, with the 06Z NOGAPS model predicting Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on
    Sunday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday.

    The 00Z ECMWF model forecast predicts that Sandy will arrive in New England on Monday night.
    Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Sandy intensifying, headed towards Jamaica | Weather Underground
     
  18. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Sandy probably a hurricane by now.
     
  19. texan

    texan Well-Known Member

    Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic, New England, and Canada

    The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray an increased risk to the U.S. and Canadian East
    Coasts for early next week. The GFS model, which had been showing that Sandy would head to the northeast out to
    sea, now has changed its tune, and predicts that Sandy will double back and hit Maine on Tuesday evening.

    The ECMWF model, which has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy, now has the storm hitting Delaware
    on Monday afternoon. These models are predicting that Sandy will get caught up by the trough approaching
    the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into the storm, converting it to a powerful
    subtropical storm with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph.

    Winds of this strength would likely cause massive power outages, as trees still in leaf take out power lines.
    Also of great concern are Sandy's rains.
    Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Hurricane Sandy hits Jamaica, dumps heavy rains on Haiti | Weather Underground

     
  20. Sleeve_meet_Heart

    Sleeve_meet_Heart making the unreadable unreadabler

    Huge potential, 1 in 100 to 500 year analogous potential. We'll see if it's realized.

    Interestingly the 18z GEFS ensemble mean shifted east , as well as most individual members. The gfs is notorious for progressive bias, however the ensemble play is a little disconcerting.