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<blockquote data-quote="zubenelgenubi" data-source="post: 4617853" data-attributes="member: 63706"><p>And by "way up" you mean? And by "all over the country" you mean? </p><p></p><p></p><p>I'm not disputing there are more deaths than there would have been without covid. But to use two years' worth of data to support a claim is not very statistically valid. The death rate in the US dropped steadily from 9.6 per 1000 in 1950 down to 8.1 per 1000 in 2008, at which point it rose at a flat rate between 2009 and 2013, at which point the growth in the death rate jumped significantly from .09% to almost 1.3%. </p><p></p><p>The growth in the death rate multiplied almost 15x in one year, and had continued at close to that rate until 2018. In 2019 the growth in the death rate dropped from 1.22% in 2018 to 1.12% in 2019. 2020 was projected to be at the same growth of the death rate as 2019, at 1.12%, before factoring in the deaths associated with Covid. </p><p></p><p>If we assume 250,000 deaths, all completely due to Covid, and that all other death rates match projections, the growth in the death rate for 2020 will be 1.19%. Less than the growth in the death rate for each year between 2014 and 2018. So, yeah, let's just focus on two years of data that support our claims. </p><p></p><p>The year we should have been flipping out was 2014. Why are we now, when covid is contributing such a small percentage to the growth in a single year's death rate? A 9% increase in the growth of the death rate from the previous year in 2020, vs a 1,433% increase in 2014. What do you attribute that to? BTW the total death rate this year will still be lower than every year between 1950 and 1988.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="zubenelgenubi, post: 4617853, member: 63706"] And by "way up" you mean? And by "all over the country" you mean? I'm not disputing there are more deaths than there would have been without covid. But to use two years' worth of data to support a claim is not very statistically valid. The death rate in the US dropped steadily from 9.6 per 1000 in 1950 down to 8.1 per 1000 in 2008, at which point it rose at a flat rate between 2009 and 2013, at which point the growth in the death rate jumped significantly from .09% to almost 1.3%. The growth in the death rate multiplied almost 15x in one year, and had continued at close to that rate until 2018. In 2019 the growth in the death rate dropped from 1.22% in 2018 to 1.12% in 2019. 2020 was projected to be at the same growth of the death rate as 2019, at 1.12%, before factoring in the deaths associated with Covid. If we assume 250,000 deaths, all completely due to Covid, and that all other death rates match projections, the growth in the death rate for 2020 will be 1.19%. Less than the growth in the death rate for each year between 2014 and 2018. So, yeah, let's just focus on two years of data that support our claims. The year we should have been flipping out was 2014. Why are we now, when covid is contributing such a small percentage to the growth in a single year's death rate? A 9% increase in the growth of the death rate from the previous year in 2020, vs a 1,433% increase in 2014. What do you attribute that to? BTW the total death rate this year will still be lower than every year between 1950 and 1988. [/QUOTE]
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