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Life After Brown
Hurricane Irma
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<blockquote data-quote="UnconTROLLed" data-source="post: 3055063" data-attributes="member: 18708"><p>From 8/31 5pm EST discussion...intensity forecasting is a pain in the butt . none of the guidance, even the most aggressive, had a 50kt increase in max wind speed in less than 24hr.</p><p></p><p>ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL</p><p>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM</p><p></p><p>Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6</p><p>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017</p><p>500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017</p><p></p><p><strong>Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall</strong></p><p><strong>convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to</strong></p><p><strong>rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB</strong></p><p><strong>support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. </strong> <em>This is a remarkable 50-kt</em></p><p><em>increase from yesterday at this time.</em></p><p></p><p>Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement</p><p>cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the</p><p>eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for</p><p>this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment</p><p>for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles</p><p>and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast</p><p>intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend,</p><p>Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to</p><p>be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be</p><p>strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC</p><p>prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line</p><p>with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional</p><p>hurricane models at that time.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="UnconTROLLed, post: 3055063, member: 18708"] From 8/31 5pm EST discussion...intensity forecasting is a pain in the butt . none of the guidance, even the most aggressive, had a 50kt increase in max wind speed in less than 24hr. ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 [b]Irma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall convection surrounding a small eye. Satellite estimates continue to rapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB support an initial wind speed of 100 kt. [/b] [i]This is a remarkable 50-kt increase from yesterday at this time.[/i] Microwave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle could be starting. This isn't surprising given how small the eye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for this hurricane. Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment for several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles and the moderately warm SSTs along the path. Thus the forecast intensity is leveled off for the next 2 days. After the weekend, Irma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to be 29C at the end of the period. All indications are for Irma to be strengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC prediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line with the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional hurricane models at that time. [/QUOTE]
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