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if hoffa win
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<blockquote data-quote="The Other Side" data-source="post: 900974" data-attributes="member: 17969"><p>Historical averages and the fact that there are two opponents running who will split the "desention" vote.</p><p></p><p>For example. In my local, our election historically can be estimated pretty closely. "I" with two decades experience with my locals elections, and a keeper of records, predicted three months ago how the outcome would play out.</p><p></p><p>Here was my prediction:</p><p></p><p>G 935 and H 2025</p><p></p><p>When the ballots were returned, 3076 out of 8700 ballots were returned. 161 were disqualified.</p><p></p><p>Final outcome:</p><p></p><p>H slate 1985 votes</p><p></p><p>G 955</p><p></p><p>As you can see, I was off on H by 40 votes and off G by 20 votes. Pretty much balls accurate for a prediction.</p><p></p><p>Out here, since 1992, the opposition vote to any incumbent has been running an average of 941 votes and the incumbent votes average 2076. The only uncontrollable variable is the "disqualified" ballots that do not get counted. An Incumbent always has the advantage, and a real challenger would have to gain more than the "disention" vote.</p><p></p><p>In our local, an average of 3055 ballots are returned each election cycle. Most of our membership for whatever reason, fails to return a ballot. That could be any number of reasons from not recieving a ballot, to just forgetting to fill it out.</p><p></p><p>Some of the missing votes are part timers who just dont feel its important enough to vote.</p><p></p><p>Regardless, a challenger in my local would have to take that 941 "disention" vote and further that vote with 700 votes taken from the incumbent. Thats why its important who runs in a slate.</p><p></p><p>Some personalities are not ready for primetime and that alone can sink a slate. In this last election last month, the opposition slate was chocked full of persons the rank and file determine to be Idiots. Of those, their associates were bigger idiots.</p><p></p><p>Then, you couple in a TDU connection or a "shoe shine" show at the convention with opposition to Brother Hoffa, and that slate is stuck with the "disention" vote.</p><p></p><p>Our election came down to all those reasons, and the final outcome was predictable.</p><p></p><p>With the National Election, similiar trending is prevalent. </p><p></p><p>Hoffa will recieve 53% of the vote and Pope / Gregare will split the other 47%. My guess for Pope is that she gains the majority of the 47% with 39% of that vote, and Gregare with 8%.</p><p></p><p>Either way, HOFFA wins and we move forward and fight on the same team in 2013.</p><p></p><p>Peace.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="The Other Side, post: 900974, member: 17969"] Historical averages and the fact that there are two opponents running who will split the "desention" vote. For example. In my local, our election historically can be estimated pretty closely. "I" with two decades experience with my locals elections, and a keeper of records, predicted three months ago how the outcome would play out. Here was my prediction: G 935 and H 2025 When the ballots were returned, 3076 out of 8700 ballots were returned. 161 were disqualified. Final outcome: H slate 1985 votes G 955 As you can see, I was off on H by 40 votes and off G by 20 votes. Pretty much balls accurate for a prediction. Out here, since 1992, the opposition vote to any incumbent has been running an average of 941 votes and the incumbent votes average 2076. The only uncontrollable variable is the "disqualified" ballots that do not get counted. An Incumbent always has the advantage, and a real challenger would have to gain more than the "disention" vote. In our local, an average of 3055 ballots are returned each election cycle. Most of our membership for whatever reason, fails to return a ballot. That could be any number of reasons from not recieving a ballot, to just forgetting to fill it out. Some of the missing votes are part timers who just dont feel its important enough to vote. Regardless, a challenger in my local would have to take that 941 "disention" vote and further that vote with 700 votes taken from the incumbent. Thats why its important who runs in a slate. Some personalities are not ready for primetime and that alone can sink a slate. In this last election last month, the opposition slate was chocked full of persons the rank and file determine to be Idiots. Of those, their associates were bigger idiots. Then, you couple in a TDU connection or a "shoe shine" show at the convention with opposition to Brother Hoffa, and that slate is stuck with the "disention" vote. Our election came down to all those reasons, and the final outcome was predictable. With the National Election, similiar trending is prevalent. Hoffa will recieve 53% of the vote and Pope / Gregare will split the other 47%. My guess for Pope is that she gains the majority of the 47% with 39% of that vote, and Gregare with 8%. Either way, HOFFA wins and we move forward and fight on the same team in 2013. Peace. [/QUOTE]
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