Home
Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
Latest activity
Members
Current visitors
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Home
Forums
Brown Cafe UPS Forum
UPS Discussions
Massive NE Snowstorm
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="UnconTROLLed" data-source="post: 1090621" data-attributes="member: 18708"><p>Ah, here we go. <img src="/community/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/biggrin.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":D" title="Big Grin :D" data-shortname=":D" /> Apparently BOX agrees.</p><p></p><p>000</p><p>FXUS61 KBOX 072351</p><p>AFDBOX</p><p></p><p>AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION</p><p>NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA</p><p><strong>651 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013</strong></p><p></p><p> .SYNOPSIS...<strong></strong></p><p><strong>A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY</strong></p><p><strong> INTO SATURDAY...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE. </strong>THIS STORM</p><p>SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY</p><p>SUNDAY. A GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW</p><p>ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY.</p><p></p><p>&&</p><p></p><p>.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...</p><p></p><p>630 PM UPDATE...</p><p>1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. </p><p>PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS</p><p>ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST A LITTLE</p><p>OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING ALONG AN ARC FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES.</p><p>THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR THE WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY.</p><p></p><p>THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE</p><p>NIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL SLOWLY THICKEN</p><p>AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES.</p><p></p><p>ONLY SMALL AJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.</p><p></p><p>&&</p><p></p><p>.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...</p><p>HEADLINES /HIGH CONFIDENCE/...</p><p></p><p>* A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN</p><p> NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL POSE THREATS</p><p> TOWARDS LIFE AND PROPERTY. </p><p></p><p>* BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT...RI...AND E/SE MA. </p><p> WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES.</p><p></p><p>* FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...HIGH WIND WARNING </p><p> CRITERIA IS INCLUSIVE. HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS </p><p> OF AROUND 60 MPH.</p><p></p><p>* STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP</p><p> 10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES...UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE.</p><p> BLOWING AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN DRIFTS UP TO</p><p> AROUND 5 FEET.</p><p></p><p>* TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY </p><p> FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE </p><p> INTO SATURDAY.</p><p></p><p>*/MODEL CONSENSUS...</p><p></p><p>DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH </p><p>THE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WILL LEAN WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERING NOT ONLY </p><p>THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO THE H85-7 LOW WITH </p><p> REGARDS TO THE CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES /WARM...COLD...DRY/. <strong>BOTH THE </strong></p><p> <strong>ECMWF/GFS LINE UP WELL WITH THE MID-LVL LOW </strong>WHEREAS THE NAM IS </p><p>DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. </p><p></p><p>*/SYNOPSIS...</p><p></p><p>SPLIT FLOW DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING </p><p>THE DAY FRIDAY...PHASING ACROSS THE S/E SHORELINES OF NEW ENGLAND </p><p>AND OFFSHORE. THE NORTHERN STREAM IS USURPED INTO THE SOUTHERN </p><p>STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO AN EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE </p><p>40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE DEEPENING SYSTEM DRAWS DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM </p><p>THE SOUTH PER STRONG /HURRICANE FORCE/ LOW-LVL FLOW. THE EXPECTATION </p><p>IS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN AND ALL OF </p><p>SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE </p><p>STORM TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. </p><p></p><p> <strong>MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN</strong>...BUT FEEL THE </p><p>DETAILS BELOW CONVEY OUR BEST THINKING. </p><p></p><p>*/PRECIPITATION...</p><p></p><p>PRIOR TO THE PHASING AND BOMBING OF THE SURFACE LOW /DURING THE DAY </p><p>FRIDAY/...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL </p><p>ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW </p><p>INCREASING IN INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MIX OF RAIN AND </p><p>SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S/SE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEW </p><p>ENGLAND...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.</p><p></p><p>AS THE LOW BOMBS TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...ANTICIPATING THE </p><p>LOW-MID LVL THERMAL FIELDS TO COLLAPSE...TIGHTENING WITH RESPECT TO </p><p>THE SURFACE LOW. N/NE FLOW SHOULD DRAW DOWN COLD AIR ACROSS ALL OF </p><p>SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE. </p><p></p><p>ANTICIPATING ANY AND ALL WET MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARDS THE </p><p>FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE...THE INTENSITY OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO </p><p>INCREASE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS </p><p>THE EASTERN CAPE AND NANTUCKET...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW </p><p>TOWARDS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOUTH </p><p>RESULTING IN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE COAST BECOMING </p><p>FLUFFIER. </p><p></p><p>MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY... </p><p>BECOMING LIGHTER INTO LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...GRADUALLY </p><p>TAPERING WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OUT INTO THE </p><p>ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.</p><p></p><p>*/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...</p><p></p><p>SW-NE SNOW-BANDING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND PIVOTING WITH THE NW </p><p> QUADRANT OF THE <strong>MID-LVL LOW COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC </strong></p><p><strong>TROWALING OF THETAE...MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP-LAYER </strong></p><p><strong>ENHANCED ASCENT. </strong></p><p></p><p>IT IS WITHIN THESE REGIONS THAT 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE </p><p>QUITE POSSIBLE. BANDS MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 MILES IN WIDTH...AND WITH </p><p>THE DYNAMICLY DEEP NATURE OF THE STORM IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION </p><p> WE MAY SEE THUNDER-SNOW.<strong> BUT THE KEY IS THE LOCATION OF THE H85-7 </strong></p><p><strong>LOW AS THE PLACEMENT OF WHICH AND THE ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WILL </strong></p><p><strong>DETERMINE WHO SEES THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWS. THERE REMAINS AN </strong></p><p><strong>UNCERTAINTY AS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS VARY TO SLIGHT DEGREES IN </strong></p><p><strong>PLACEMENT OF THE H85-7 LOW. </strong></p><p></p><p>ASIDE...WITH MORE FAVORABILITY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...A LOW-MID LVL</p><p> <em>BAND SETUP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND COINCIDENT WITH</em></p><p><em>THE BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW /PARALLEL AND LIKELY ALONG</em></p><p><em>THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE/. NO SURPRISE...AS</em></p><p><em>CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING OVER THE 40N/70W</em></p><p><em>BENCHMARK THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE ORIENTED ALONG AND ACROSS THE</em></p><p><em> I-95 CORRIDOR.</em> WILL SET MY SIGHTS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN</p><p>THIS VICINITY.</p><p></p><p> <strong>A MORE MID-LVL BANDING SETUP APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON </strong></p><p><strong>RIVER VALLEY ACROSS W MA TOWARDS THE SHORELINE OF MAINE. </strong></p><p></p><p>A MAJORITY OF THE BANDING WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND THE FRIDAY </p><p>EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.</p><p></p><p>WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE </p><p>EXPECTATION OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. </p><p>ANTICIPATING A LULL IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY</p><p>BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED BANDING SIGNATURES. LESSER AMOUNTS</p><p>OVER THE EASTERN CAPE AND TOWARDS THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE INITIAL</p><p>MIXING WITH RAIN.</p><p></p><p>HAVE GONE WITH BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR CT/RI AND E/SE MA EXCLUDING </p><p>NANTUCKET. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. WILL </p><p>SET THE TIMING FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE </p><p>EXPECTATION OF THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO </p><p>SATURDAY.</p><p></p><p>*/WINDS...</p><p></p><p>STRONGEST WINDS CENTER AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OUT OF THE </p><p>NORTH-NORTHEAST. RULES OF THUMB...HALVING THE H85 FLOW NETS AN </p><p>ESTIMATE OF EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...WHILE AN </p><p>EVALUATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL NETS AN ESTIMATE OF </p><p>AROUND 60 MPH. </p><p></p><p>CONSIDERING LOCAL CASE STUDIES AND CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON PRESSURE </p><p>DIFFERENTIALS AND H925/85 WINDS...WE WILL HIT HIGH WIND WARNING </p><p>CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF EASTERN AND ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW </p><p>ENGLAND.</p><p></p><p>CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...PRECIPITATION DRAG </p><p>PROCESSES...AND A MOIST-ADIABATIC VERTICAL PROFILE UP TO H925 WHERE </p><p> N/NE WINDS MAX UP TO AROUND 90 MPH...<strong>AM EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND 30 </strong></p><p><strong>MPH FOR FAR NW MA...INCREASING SOUTH AND EAST WITH GUSTS ACROSS SE </strong></p><p><strong>MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF AROUND 80 MPH. </strong></p><p><strong>CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BASED ON THE LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCH- </strong></p><p><strong>MARK...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR </strong></p><p><strong>SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. </strong></p><p></p><p>AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DRAW DOWN OF COLDER AIR WILL MAKE THE SNOW </p><p>FLUFFIER IN NATURE. ANTICIPATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING </p><p>IN DRIFTS OF AROUND 5 FEET. </p><p></p><p>IN AREAS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT...THE GENERAL </p><p>PUBLIC SHOULD BE AWARE THAT HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE INCLUSIVE NOT </p><p>REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE GREATEST </p><p>POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE ACROSS E/SE MA INTO RI...THE </p><p>STRONGEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES. </p><p></p><p>HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WITH STORM </p><p>WARNINGS FOR THE INNER WATERS. </p><p></p><p>*/MARINE IMPACTS...</p><p></p><p>PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION.</p><p></p><p>*/COASTAL FLOODING...</p><p></p><p>PLESE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE </p><p>DISCUSSION.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="UnconTROLLed, post: 1090621, member: 18708"] Ah, here we go. :D Apparently BOX agrees. 000 FXUS61 KBOX 072351 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA [B]651 PM EST THU FEB 7 2013[/B] .SYNOPSIS...[B] A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH AROUND 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE. [/B]THIS STORM SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY SUNDAY. A GREAT LAKES STORM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 630 PM UPDATE... 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST A LITTLE OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING ALONG AN ARC FROM QUEBEC TO THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR THE WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASES. ONLY SMALL AJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... HEADLINES /HIGH CONFIDENCE/... * A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL POSE THREATS TOWARDS LIFE AND PROPERTY. * BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CT...RI...AND E/SE MA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OTHER LOCALES. * FOR THOSE AREAS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING...HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IS INCLUSIVE. HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 60 MPH. * STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS BY STORMS END MAY BE IN THE ALL-TIME TOP 10 FOR VARIOUS CITIES...UP TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING ANTICIPATED RESULTING IN DRIFTS UP TO AROUND 5 FEET. * TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BY THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY. */MODEL CONSENSUS... DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WILL LEAN WITH THE ECMWF CONSIDERING NOT ONLY THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT ALSO THE H85-7 LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES /WARM...COLD...DRY/. [B]BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS LINE UP WELL WITH THE MID-LVL LOW [/B]WHEREAS THE NAM IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. */SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW DISTURBANCES TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...PHASING ACROSS THE S/E SHORELINES OF NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE. THE NORTHERN STREAM IS USURPED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE INTO AN EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE DEEPENING SYSTEM DRAWS DEEP MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH PER STRONG /HURRICANE FORCE/ LOW-LVL FLOW. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN AND ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE STORM TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. [B]MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN[/B]...BUT FEEL THE DETAILS BELOW CONVEY OUR BEST THINKING. */PRECIPITATION... PRIOR TO THE PHASING AND BOMBING OF THE SURFACE LOW /DURING THE DAY FRIDAY/...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW INCREASING IN INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE S/SE COASTAL REGIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. AS THE LOW BOMBS TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...ANTICIPATING THE LOW-MID LVL THERMAL FIELDS TO COLLAPSE...TIGHTENING WITH RESPECT TO THE SURFACE LOW. N/NE FLOW SHOULD DRAW DOWN COLD AIR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE. ANTICIPATING ANY AND ALL WET MIX TO CHANGE TO SNOW TOWARDS THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE...THE INTENSITY OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAPE AND NANTUCKET...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW TOWARDS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOUTH RESULTING IN SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE COAST BECOMING FLUFFIER. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY... BECOMING LIGHTER INTO LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. */SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... SW-NE SNOW-BANDING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND PIVOTING WITH THE NW QUADRANT OF THE [B]MID-LVL LOW COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC TROWALING OF THETAE...MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP-LAYER ENHANCED ASCENT. [/B] IT IS WITHIN THESE REGIONS THAT 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE. BANDS MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 MILES IN WIDTH...AND WITH THE DYNAMICLY DEEP NATURE OF THE STORM IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE MAY SEE THUNDER-SNOW.[B] BUT THE KEY IS THE LOCATION OF THE H85-7 LOW AS THE PLACEMENT OF WHICH AND THE ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWS. THERE REMAINS AN UNCERTAINTY AS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS VARY TO SLIGHT DEGREES IN PLACEMENT OF THE H85-7 LOW. [/B] ASIDE...WITH MORE FAVORABILITY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...A LOW-MID LVL [I]BAND SETUP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND COINCIDENT WITH THE BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW /PARALLEL AND LIKELY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE/. NO SURPRISE...AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE ORIENTED ALONG AND ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.[/I] WILL SET MY SIGHTS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS VICINITY. [B]A MORE MID-LVL BANDING SETUP APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ACROSS W MA TOWARDS THE SHORELINE OF MAINE. [/B] A MAJORITY OF THE BANDING WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH WIND CRITERIA. ANTICIPATING A LULL IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED BANDING SIGNATURES. LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN CAPE AND TOWARDS THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE INITIAL MIXING WITH RAIN. HAVE GONE WITH BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR CT/RI AND E/SE MA EXCLUDING NANTUCKET. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. WILL SET THE TIMING FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. */WINDS... STRONGEST WINDS CENTER AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. RULES OF THUMB...HALVING THE H85 FLOW NETS AN ESTIMATE OF EXPECTED SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...WHILE AN EVALUATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL NETS AN ESTIMATE OF AROUND 60 MPH. CONSIDERING LOCAL CASE STUDIES AND CLIMATOLOGY BASED ON PRESSURE DIFFERENTIALS AND H925/85 WINDS...WE WILL HIT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A MAJORITY OF EASTERN AND ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...PRECIPITATION DRAG PROCESSES...AND A MOIST-ADIABATIC VERTICAL PROFILE UP TO H925 WHERE N/NE WINDS MAX UP TO AROUND 90 MPH...[b]AM EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH FOR FAR NW MA...INCREASING SOUTH AND EAST WITH GUSTS ACROSS SE MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF AROUND 80 MPH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...BASED ON THE LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCH- MARK...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. [/b] AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DRAW DOWN OF COLDER AIR WILL MAKE THE SNOW FLUFFIER IN NATURE. ANTICIPATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING IN DRIFTS OF AROUND 5 FEET. IN AREAS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT...THE GENERAL PUBLIC SHOULD BE AWARE THAT HIGH WIND CRITERIA ARE INCLUSIVE NOT REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF HIGH WINDS WILL BE ACROSS E/SE MA INTO RI...THE STRONGEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORES. HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...WITH STORM WARNINGS FOR THE INNER WATERS. */MARINE IMPACTS... PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION. */COASTAL FLOODING... PLESE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE DISCUSSION. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Home
Forums
Brown Cafe UPS Forum
UPS Discussions
Massive NE Snowstorm
Top