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<blockquote data-quote="av8torntn" data-source="post: 1024205" data-attributes="member: 8259"><p>Well the thing about polling is that they try to predict voter turnout. These guys spend lots of effort trying to figure it out so you normally give more credit to polls that are of likely voters versus registered voters. Rasmussen was one of the more accurate polls last Presidential cycle but they all give weight to one group or another. I&#039;d be suspicious of any poll that had a very small amount of &quot;independent&quot; voters this early in the process. One of the big problems will be that in this cycle&nbsp; the independents appear to be swinging heavily toward Romney so this will cause an early oversampling of democrats. In the end the national polls do not really mean much. You have to pay attention to the swing state polls and honestly not much effort will be put into those this early in the process outside of the campaigns themselves and we won&#039;t see those.</p></blockquote><p></p>

[QUOTE="av8torntn, post: 1024205, member: 8259"] Well the thing about polling is that they try to predict voter turnout. These guys spend lots of effort trying to figure it out so you normally give more credit to polls that are of likely voters versus registered voters. Rasmussen was one of the more accurate polls last Presidential cycle but they all give weight to one group or another. I'd be suspicious of any poll that had a very small amount of "independent" voters this early in the process. One of the big problems will be that in this cycle the independents appear to be swinging heavily toward Romney so this will cause an early oversampling of democrats. In the end the national polls do not really mean much. You have to pay attention to the swing state polls and honestly not much effort will be put into those this early in the process outside of the campaigns themselves and we won't see those. [/QUOTE]

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