Stock Possibilities?

[upsace]

Now that the contract is apparently settled is it going to be viewed as too expensive? Will that make investors shy away?
Also, I read that UPS "released" 32 million shares but that 70 - 100 million shares are needed to satisfy the demands brought on by inclusion in the S&P500. Where will the additional 38 - 68 million shares come from? Is there a possibility of a stock split to satisfy these demands?
Any ideas and opinions are appreciated.

 

[wkmac]

"Where will the additional 38 - 68 million shares come from?"

Let's see, here's my list:
DaBusdrivr
jcroche
gsx
Ir1937
badhab1

Seriously, good questions that time will tell. I'm hopeful the contract addresses Union concerns but still leaves UPS with the ability to grow and be even more profitable going forward. That's called a Win/Win and that is exactly what we both need for the future.

mac

Time to work on organizing FedEx and this issue was discussed this past Saturday at our local because I brought it up!

 

[upsadvisor]

A lack of supply ( of which there is not ) would only mean good things for the stock.

If there is demand and limited supply then the rules of supply and demand would dictate that the stock would trade higher.

UPS has 1.12 Billion shares outstanding and a 1.02 billion share float and an average volume of 4 million so I would not count on a run up due to lack of stock. ( Info from Yahoo finance ).


John

 

[charlie]

Hi John,

While I know that UPS cannot control the price of the stock, they can greatly influence it through press releases, comments, buy backs etc. From the date of the IPO, including the tender offer, the board appears to have had a target price of $60 per share. When UPS decided to IPO, you can bet that they had many short and long term plans for the price of the stock, one of them being a "target price" of 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, etc. If they let the stock run up to fast, the company would lose to many valuable people to fast.
I now belive that the new "target price for the stock will be in the $63 range after the IPO. If the stock begins to rise to rapidly this coming week, look for UPS to announce some type of news to slow it down. I have heard that the magic number for alot of people near retirement is $65 per share. Look for this target price after peak. This will be the early retirement buyout so many are looking for!!!!

Of course.....these are only my opinions.

10:45 and UPS is up $0.60 at 60.80. GO UPS!!!!!

Charlie

 

[michael]

charlie

I have heard that the magic number for alot of people near retirement is $65 per share.


Not sure where you got this impression but I would think that all those that were considering that would have done so after the IPO. After all the price doubled and everyone in that position (considering retirement) would have done so then or shortly after that.

 

[charlie]

Hi Michael,

Those that could did. However, since the stock was locked-up for 6 months for the first third, and the price per share decreased (re-balanced) after the IPO, many hung on. The magic $65 number is purely from talking with folks at the next "rung". Those that were considering or planning retirement were certainly able to enjoy the good life after the IPO. Many however, after pulling the plug, had a reality check after watching the stock price drift down during and after the lock-up. Those who stayed have been waiting for the share price to go back up, and from conversations with others, $65 looks like the threshhold for many to take an early leave. Of course I am referring to those who have not yet reached retirement age.
Only time will tell, but if the stock stabilizes at $65 or above, I believe we'll see a larger reduction in the management ranks than usual due to early retirements, new life plans, etc.
I also believe that this will be by corporate plan. We shall see.............

Best regards..........Charlie

 

[charlie]

I now belive that the new "target price for the stock will be in the $63 range after the IPO.

OOOPS......So sorry.....what I meant to say was.......will be in the $63 range after this Friday and the official inclusion into the S&P 500.

Regards......Charlie.

 

[lr1937]

Let's see, here's my list:
DaBusdrivr
jcroche
gsx
Ir1937
badhab1

Workmac
I am glad that you placed me in such highly esteemed company but I was only able to accumulate 250 shars during the 25 years I was qualified to participate in management incentive. I only got 10 shares per year MIP. Time were tough back then and I donated all of mine back to the company for tax reasons. I am a big hearted guy with many litres of brown blood in my viens. Me and Annie were in the same boat. I am presently collecting food stamps and we live from month to month on our ss checks. I am going to start the lr1937 charity. Maybe some of the good folks you place me in the company of wouldn't mind cutting loose of some of their shares. It is for a good cause and is tax deductable. Send you shares to the Poor Soul House, PObox 1, Downandout, NC 27560
Woe is me!

 

[wkmac]

Ir1937,

To help make you feel better in your plight, I'm personally going down to Glenlake and speak with Mr. Eskew about sending you some Brown Balloons. It's the least we can do for such loyalty and sacrifice!

 

[michael]

Charlie:

Some interesting points, I would like to hear from some of the management people in the position that you describe. As a stockholder I am curious, interested and cautious about my investment if there gets to be a high number of experienced management people leaving. I remember a thing call the "buyout" it had mixed results. What I saw was a lot of the wrong people taking the "buyout". If your scenario comes into being it could have some interesting results.

Michael

 

[dabusdrivr]

Let's see, here's my list:
DaBusdrivr
jcroche
gsx
Ir1937
badhab1

Hey Mac, Take me off your list. Move me down to the pauper list with Bibbucks. If this market doesn't turn around, I may have to sell the BUS.

 

[jcroche]

As a newly retired employee, this "magic number" or "target price" makes no sense at all. You're either 55 years of age (or older) or not. If you are younger than 55, you are not retiring - you are voluntarily terminating your employment and in doing so forfeiting your benefits. You will be eligible for your pension (if you are vested), but that's it.

In either case, basing a life long decision on a "target price" tells me that these people are NOT financially ready, as the day after they sign the papers the price of the stock could drop dramatically.

JMO

jcr

BTW - Take me off the list - I don't like being a minnow swimming around with all these whales.

(Message edited by jcroche on July 18, 2002)

 

[smallcapbuyer]

jcroche, I agree. I left early (pre 55) shortly after the tender offer. To think someone would make a retirement decision based on a target price, (at $65 yes, at $64 no) is ridiculous. Assuming you have enough shares to retire comfortably, say 50,000 for $3 million plus, why would $50,000 in total value hold you back? Hell, it's not unusual for me to gain or lose that much in a day with my mutual funds the way the market's been. I don't think anyone has to be worrying about a mass defection at any target price. JMHO

 

[upsadvisor]

There just is no way for UPS to manipulate the stock price in this way.

Overe the short term they could move the stock slightly but there is just no way they could artifically keep the price of the stock down in the way you suggest over the long haul.

Lets face it the economy and the contract are what kept the stock below 60 not press releases.

The price of the stock relative to the foward earnongs is still undervalued, the market trades on future earnings if they are there the stock is rewarded with a higher PE multiple.

Press relases are short term events if not material ( like a contract ) and as long as the fundementals are good the stock will move higher period.

John

 

[lr1937]

Mac
Mike called and said baloons sent NDA. Says he is keeping his eyes on you. Wants you to come on board. Likes your "Independent" thinking. Says he will submit my charity to UW for scrutinizing. Thanks for putting me in touch with Mike. I didn't know you had that much clout. Can you get me a DJ autograph from Mike?
You have raised my spirits along with my brown (emblemless??)baloons. Any chance you could take up a collection in your work area for PSH?