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<blockquote data-quote="UnconTROLLed" data-source="post: 690528" data-attributes="member: 18708"><p>As you wish!</p><p></p><p>NWS Taunton gun-shy at this point, and why not after last weeks epic bust....but it's almost painful to read the area forecast discussion...</p><p></p><p>LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...</p><p>MAINLY DRY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND</p><p>SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF BKN STRATOCU WILL PERSIST</p><p>HOWEVER...AND THIS WILL OFFER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER</p><p>THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.</p><p></p><p>MONDAY APPEARS TOP BE KIND OF A TRANSITION DAY AS WE GET SQUEEZED IN</p><p>BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE MARITIMES</p><p>AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW</p><p>FOR A DECENT DAY ON MONDAY WITH SNE GENERALLY UNDERNEATH SHORT WAVE</p><p>RIDGING. WE EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE</p><p>THAT WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.</p><p></p><p><strong>THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE IN TERMS OF EXACT</strong></p><p><strong>TIMING OF POPS...PRECIP TYPE...AND QPF. HOWEVER...WE ARE PRETTY</strong></p><p><strong>CONFIDENT IN THAT AT LEAST ONE COASTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL DELIVER</strong></p><p><strong>INCLEMENT CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND</strong></p><p><strong>WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.</strong></p><p></p><p>THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE</p><p>DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF LARGER SCALE FIELDS DURING THE MIDWEEK</p><p>PERIOD. <strong>HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT</strong></p><p><strong>DOESN/T MEAN THEY WILL BE RIGHT.</strong> THE INTERACTION OF STREAMS AND</p><p>SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO PIN</p><p>DOWN...THEREFORE...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE</p><p>NEXT FEW DAYS.</p><p></p><p>A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME ASHORE IN SOUTHERN</p><p>CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLUNG ALL THE WAY TO THE</p><p>EAST COAST BY SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN</p><p>AND LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT ON THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW</p><p>FOR PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT</p><p>OR EARLY TUESDAY.</p><p></p><p><strong>HOW MUCH THIS NEW LOW WANTS TO ORGANIZE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS NOT</strong></p><p><strong>REALLY KNOWN AT THIS TIME</strong>...AS THIS WILL DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE IN A</p><p>LOT OF AREAS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY. A</p><p>WEAKER REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO MAY NOT STOP DRY SLOTTING AND A GOOD</p><p>AMOUNT OF WARMING TO REACH EVEN THE FAR INTERIOR. FOR NOW...WILL GO</p><p>WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO LIKELY ON TUESDAY. MOST</p><p>LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE SNOW AT THE START EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE</p><p>IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WE FEEL THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARMER LOW AND</p><p>MID LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY WORK INTO A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND</p><p>LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG OF</p><p>PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR NW INTERIOR.<strong> HOWEVER...VERY LOW</strong></p><p><strong>CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES ATTM.</strong> HOWEVER...CURRENT</p><p>INDICATIONS ARE THAT A DECENT SLUG OF SNOW...PROBABLY PLOWABLE...IS</p><p>IN STORE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHER</p><p>CONFIDENCE EXISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.</p><p></p><p>AFTER TUESDAY DAYTIME...<strong>THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE FUZZY</strong> AS LARGE</p><p>NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRIES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE</p><p>GREAT LAKES AND ATTEMPTS TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM</p><p>WAVE RESULTING IN A SECOND ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY</p><p>INTO THURSDAY. <strong>THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO COMES WITH IT/S OWN BAG OF</strong></p><p><strong>UNCERTAINTY AS WELL.</strong></p><p></p><p>THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A</p><p>PROLONGED ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER MIDWEEK...INCLUDING ALL PRECIP TYPE</p><p>POSSIBILTIES...RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET.</p><p>HOWEVER...<strong>CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW.</strong> WE WILL TRY TO IRON OUT THE</p><p>DETAILS THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND.</p><p></p><p>&&</p><p></p><p></p><p>HPC is off the deep end here, as far as the northeast, not sure about midwest/upper plains, down to TX?? LA?? </p><p></p><p>2Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE STRONGLY CONVERGED ON THEIR PATTERN</p><p>E OF THE ROCKIES DAYS 4-7 <strong>CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER</strong></p><p><strong>POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOWSTORM WED NIGHT/THU FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND</strong></p><p><strong>ESPECIALLY NEW ENG. </strong>HELPING TO ACHIEVE THIS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT</p><p>WERE MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT SUN/MON...DAYS 2-3...IN</p><p>TURNING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE N AROUND THE W SIDE OF A BLOCKING HIGH</p><p>INSTEAD OF TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE BLOCK AS SOME WERE DOING IN</p><p>YESTERDAYS RUNS. </p><p></p><p>00Z/19 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS HAD SHOWN THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/19</p><p>ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY OVER THE</p><p>SWRN CONUS THU DAY 6....AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS/UKMET FAMILY OF</p><p>SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z/19 GFS/UKMET FAMILY OF S SOLUTIONS (TOWARD</p><p>WHICH 12Z/19 MODELS HAVE CONVERGED) HAD THE MAIN SRN STREAM SYS</p><p>CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATES WED NIGHT. THIS WAS MORE IN LINE</p><p>WITH YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUNS. THE 00Z/19 GFS/UKMET ALSO SHOWED</p><p>ENERGY DROPPING S OUT OF A NRN CANADIAN VORTEX BY THU. </p><p> </p><p><strong>ONE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY ENE TO THE E COAST DAYS 3-4</strong></p><p><strong>AND SHOULD BRING A MODERATE SNOW EVENT TO THE UPPER OH VLY ACROSS</strong></p><p><strong>NE PA TO SRN NEW ENG.</strong> FARTHER S...MOSTLY A RA EVENT IS EXPECTED.</p><p>HOWEVER...SLOW DEPARTURE OF A NEWFOUNDLAND LOW EARLY MON COULD</p><p>DELAY A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WITH THIS SYS ALONG THE MASON DIXON</p><p>LINE AND POINTS S. FOR NOW THOUGH..WE ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR</p><p>MOSTLY RA WITH THIS SYS MON BELOW THE MD/PA BORDER. FOR</p><p>TUE...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS SRN NEW ENG.</p><p></p><p>A BETTER THREAT FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM COMES FROM THE NEXT SRN</p><p>STREAM WAVE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN STATES TUE INTO EARLY</p><p>THU...AT THE SAME TIME THAT A POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SWD</p><p>FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IN FAR NRN CANADA. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS</p><p>NEXT SRN STREAM SYS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE BY NEW 12Z/19 MODELS. <strong> THE</strong></p><p><strong>STRONG SRN STREAM SYS COULD ALSO HELP LAY DOWN A STRIPE OF HEAVY</strong></p><p><strong>SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP S FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS EWD</strong></p><p><strong>TREK TO THE SE COAST.</strong> WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON THE NERN STREAM</p><p>CLOSING OFF OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AND MID ATLANTIC BY THU DAY</p><p>6...<strong>THE STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE MID</strong></p><p><strong>ATLANTIC/NEW ENG.</strong></p><p></p><p>W OF THE ROCKIES...THE W COAST BECOME RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE MEAN</p><p>RIDGE NEAR THE W COAST OF NOAM WEAKENS. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLIES</p><p>WILL IMPINGE ALONG THE W COAST FROM CA NWD FROM DAY 5 ONWARD</p><p>GIVING HEAVY OROGRAPHIC PCPN. TIMING OF THESE W COAST SHORTWAVES</p><p>BEYOND DAY 5 IS BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. </p><p></p><p>FLOOD</p><p></p><p></p><p>Exciting times, ahead.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="UnconTROLLed, post: 690528, member: 18708"] As you wish! NWS Taunton gun-shy at this point, and why not after last weeks epic bust....but it's almost painful to read the area forecast discussion... LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY DRY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF BKN STRATOCU WILL PERSIST HOWEVER...AND THIS WILL OFFER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MONDAY APPEARS TOP BE KIND OF A TRANSITION DAY AS WE GET SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE MARITIMES AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT DAY ON MONDAY WITH SNE GENERALLY UNDERNEATH SHORT WAVE RIDGING. WE EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THAT WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. [B]THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE IN TERMS OF EXACT TIMING OF POPS...PRECIP TYPE...AND QPF. HOWEVER...WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN THAT AT LEAST ONE COASTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL DELIVER INCLEMENT CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.[/b] THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION OF LARGER SCALE FIELDS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. [b]HOWEVER...JUST BECAUSE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT DOESN/T MEAN THEY WILL BE RIGHT.[/b] THE INTERACTION OF STREAMS AND SUBTLE SHORT WAVES WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO PIN DOWN...THEREFORE...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO COME ASHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND SLUNG ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST BY SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT. A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT ON THE EAST COAST AND ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. [b]HOW MUCH THIS NEW LOW WANTS TO ORGANIZE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS NOT REALLY KNOWN AT THIS TIME[/b]...AS THIS WILL DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE IN A LOT OF AREAS...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY. A WEAKER REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO MAY NOT STOP DRY SLOTTING AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF WARMING TO REACH EVEN THE FAR INTERIOR. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO LIKELY ON TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY BE SNOW AT THE START EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THEY WE FEEL THE ONSHORE FLOW. WARMER LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY WORK INTO A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE FAR NW INTERIOR.[b] HOWEVER...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES ATTM.[/b] HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A DECENT SLUG OF SNOW...PROBABLY PLOWABLE...IS IN STORE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. AFTER TUESDAY DAYTIME...[b]THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE FUZZY[/b] AS LARGE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRIES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ATTEMPTS TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE RESULTING IN A SECOND ROUND OF CYCLOGENESIS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. [b]THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO COMES WITH IT/S OWN BAG OF UNCERTAINTY AS WELL.[/b] THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A PROLONGED ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER MIDWEEK...INCLUDING ALL PRECIP TYPE POSSIBILTIES...RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET. HOWEVER...[b]CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW.[/b] WE WILL TRY TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND. && HPC is off the deep end here, as far as the northeast, not sure about midwest/upper plains, down to TX?? LA?? 2Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE STRONGLY CONVERGED ON THEIR PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES DAYS 4-7 [b]CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOWSTORM WED NIGHT/THU FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY NEW ENG. [/b]HELPING TO ACHIEVE THIS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WERE MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT SUN/MON...DAYS 2-3...IN TURNING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE N AROUND THE W SIDE OF A BLOCKING HIGH INSTEAD OF TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE BLOCK AS SOME WERE DOING IN YESTERDAYS RUNS. 00Z/19 ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS HAD SHOWN THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z/19 ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY OVER THE SWRN CONUS THU DAY 6....AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS/UKMET FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z/19 GFS/UKMET FAMILY OF S SOLUTIONS (TOWARD WHICH 12Z/19 MODELS HAVE CONVERGED) HAD THE MAIN SRN STREAM SYS CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATES WED NIGHT. THIS WAS MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUNS. THE 00Z/19 GFS/UKMET ALSO SHOWED ENERGY DROPPING S OUT OF A NRN CANADIAN VORTEX BY THU. [b]ONE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY ENE TO THE E COAST DAYS 3-4 AND SHOULD BRING A MODERATE SNOW EVENT TO THE UPPER OH VLY ACROSS NE PA TO SRN NEW ENG.[/b] FARTHER S...MOSTLY A RA EVENT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SLOW DEPARTURE OF A NEWFOUNDLAND LOW EARLY MON COULD DELAY A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WITH THIS SYS ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AND POINTS S. FOR NOW THOUGH..WE ARE CONTINUING THE TREND FOR MOSTLY RA WITH THIS SYS MON BELOW THE MD/PA BORDER. FOR TUE...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS SRN NEW ENG. A BETTER THREAT FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM COMES FROM THE NEXT SRN STREAM WAVE WHICH TRACKS ACROSS THE SRN STATES TUE INTO EARLY THU...AT THE SAME TIME THAT A POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS SWD FROM THE POLAR VORTEX IN FAR NRN CANADA. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS NEXT SRN STREAM SYS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE BY NEW 12Z/19 MODELS. [b] THE STRONG SRN STREAM SYS COULD ALSO HELP LAY DOWN A STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE DEEP S FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS EWD TREK TO THE SE COAST.[/b] WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON THE NERN STREAM CLOSING OFF OVER THE UPPER OH VLY AND MID ATLANTIC BY THU DAY 6...[b]THE STAGE IS SET FOR ANOTHER MAJOR SNOW STORM FOR THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENG.[/b] W OF THE ROCKIES...THE W COAST BECOME RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE MEAN RIDGE NEAR THE W COAST OF NOAM WEAKENS. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLIES WILL IMPINGE ALONG THE W COAST FROM CA NWD FROM DAY 5 ONWARD GIVING HEAVY OROGRAPHIC PCPN. TIMING OF THESE W COAST SHORTWAVES BEYOND DAY 5 IS BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. FLOOD Exciting times, ahead. [/QUOTE]
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