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TS Sandy
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<blockquote data-quote="UnconTROLLed" data-source="post: 1044133" data-attributes="member: 18708"><p>TS Sandy should strengthen over the next 24hr. Maybe some rapid intensification late today through tomorrow am.</p><p></p><p>The most important features in the track of Sandy are the retrograding ocean low across the N Atlantic, and the PNA ridging/ AK vortex. These are all coming into play between D3-4, and the data is simply too sparse and truncated by that point to be confident in either of the above features. </p><p></p><p>by D5-7, it's a crapshoot. </p><p></p><p>One important rule in forecasting is to weigh forecasts towards data trends. All of yesterdays 12z and now 0z models trended weaker with the PNA ridging, stronger with AK vortex. Nearly all of 'em trended east with Sandys track. That is telling and if that trend continues another few cycles, Sandy is nothing more than a fish for Bermuda to deal with.</p><p></p><p>Having said that, it's still early. <img src="/community/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/wink.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=";)" title="Wink ;)" data-shortname=";)" /></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="UnconTROLLed, post: 1044133, member: 18708"] TS Sandy should strengthen over the next 24hr. Maybe some rapid intensification late today through tomorrow am. The most important features in the track of Sandy are the retrograding ocean low across the N Atlantic, and the PNA ridging/ AK vortex. These are all coming into play between D3-4, and the data is simply too sparse and truncated by that point to be confident in either of the above features. by D5-7, it's a crapshoot. One important rule in forecasting is to weigh forecasts towards data trends. All of yesterdays 12z and now 0z models trended weaker with the PNA ridging, stronger with AK vortex. Nearly all of 'em trended east with Sandys track. That is telling and if that trend continues another few cycles, Sandy is nothing more than a fish for Bermuda to deal with. Having said that, it's still early. ;) [/QUOTE]
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