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<blockquote data-quote="texan" data-source="post: 1044525" data-attributes="member: 38206"><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>Sandy a potential threat to New England</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>By Friday, Sandy should be over warm waters in the Central Bahamas, but only modest re-intensification by</strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>10 - 20 mph should occur, due to high wind shear.</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong></strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>At that point, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure</strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>approaching the U.S. East Coast. The trough may steer Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the</strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models.</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong></strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>However, an alternative solution, shown by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for the trough to inject a</strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits New England</strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>early next week with a central pressure of 948 mb and winds near hurricane-force.</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong></strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are off by a full day in their predictions of when the storm would</strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>arrive, with the <a href="https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2012102306&set=Core" target="_blank">06Z NOGAPS model</a> predicting Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on</strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>Sunday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday.</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong></strong></span></p><p> <span style="font-size: 10px"><strong>The 00Z ECMWF model forecast predicts that Sandy will arrive in New England on Monday night.</strong></span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10px"><strong><a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2270" target="_blank">Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Sandy intensifying, headed towards Jamaica | Weather Underground</a></strong></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="texan, post: 1044525, member: 38206"] [SIZE=2][B]Sandy a potential threat to New England By Friday, Sandy should be over warm waters in the Central Bahamas, but only modest re-intensification by 10 - 20 mph should occur, due to high wind shear. At that point, a very complicated meteorological situation unfolds, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast. The trough may steer Sandy northeastwards, out to sea, as predicted by the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL models. However, an alternative solution, shown by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, is for the trough to inject a large amount of energy into Sandy, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm that hits New England early next week with a central pressure of 948 mb and winds near hurricane-force. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are off by a full day in their predictions of when the storm would arrive, with the [URL="https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2012102306&set=Core"]06Z NOGAPS model[/URL] predicting Sandy's heavy rains will arrive on North Carolina's Outer Banks on Sunday, then spread into the mid-Atlantic and New England on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF model forecast predicts that Sandy will arrive in New England on Monday night. [URL="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2270"]Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Sandy intensifying, headed towards Jamaica | Weather Underground[/URL][/B][/SIZE] [/QUOTE]
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