UPS Earnings Oct 21

[peacock71]

Street estimate is for .60 per share. With the return of DELL and other customers, growth in International, and growth in logistics...I think .63 is more in order. Looking for a big peak season this year due to economic recovery and maybe some upticks in the jobs picture soon...

FEDEX stock has soared like an eagle recently, UPS will follow...


Go UPS!
P71

 

[deliver_man]

Is Dell really back or not? I have heard no confirmation of this one way or the other.

 

[upscorpis]

P71,

I wish I shared your optimism about the stock price. I've seen this movie before. Our price rises due to some perception of the market while the fundamentals have done nothing new. UPS releases earnings near projected and the price drops as the fundamentals again come into focus. Of course, I hope I'm wrong (you won't hear me say that very often!). Another postive for earnings should be the continued weakened dollar. That will add more to the international contribution to the bottom line.

 

[afups]

A new year high of $68.45 this morning

 

[trader]

There is a lot of market skepticism associated with the earnings. IBM reported a drop and the market reacted. I believe keeping in mind the fundamental and future growth; UPS should meet the market expectations of $0.60. In the long run, UPS will be able to win back some of the lost customers due to the labor contracts last year as those lost accounts contracts with competition will be expiring in the next 4-6 months. We must keep in mind that the Ground market is saturated between the two carriers leaving little to change.
The highlight of our earning report should be international volume and the revenue UPS subsidiaries is bringing in but am skeptical what would happen if UPS doesnt post a positive outlook (just playing devils advocate!).

 

[wkmac]

deliver man,
I spoke with our Reload Sort manager and he confirmed it. ECS clerks had some special setup they used with Dell product only and now this setup is going back in place. This is good news and I was glad to see it confirmed from an official source. Can't remember who posted it here but thanks to whoever it was.

Lots of good economic news yesterday but let's not count the eggs before the chicken does it's job. Lot of folks thought Cat would do well with it's report but didn't. The earnings weren't bad but fell short of what the street expected and they took a hit. We'll see on Tuesday but I do feel we'll at least hit the numbers the company had projected.

 

[badhab1]

I'm not overly thrilled with Dell's return. I understand the profit margin has been further reduced and I have some questions about the call. There is little p.r. value in this since customers flip often and an increase in volume growth without helping the cofers has virtually only one use; playing the who really is getting the growth with the street crowd game. Hope it works out for the best. My prediction is that the numbers on the 21st will be very very solid.

 

[peacock71]

I still believe the UPS still has the best value for customers like DELL, when you combine logistics, global capabilities, and the scale of our domestic network. FEDEX has realized this and is building out, but for customers like DELL, UPS is the only true game in town...for a while longer.

Also, note the UPS IS and UPS Prof Services have provided DELL with exclusive OPLD and Billing Services the others don't have...yet.

Looking for .64 on the 21st. Economy is picking up, UPS is doing OK.

Go UPS!
Go Yankees!
P71

 

[afups]

I expect earnings above the estimates. If they are we will see 70 bucks a share this week.

 

[local804]

70 bucks a share will be very sweet.Its about time it is starting to skyrocket.How bout them YANKEES.....

 

[wkmac]

UPS earnings up, UPS Shareprice down! It's so good to see a normal positive market again. LOL!

Seriously, I think the earnings were good and about what should have been expected but the even better news is company projections of 4Q domestic volume growth of 4% which beats the 2% we've been stuck in the last couple of years or at least it seemed like it. The message to the investor is that what we say we will do and that we can be trusted. No surprises and in light of recent market events this is a positive for the longterm investor. I don't think we'll see any price jump from today's news because I think the market has in some sense come to trust our numbers so the shareprice already had the earnings built in. It will now take other dynamics to drive the shareprice further and I kinda expect that. Yep, it really was a good day today. JMO.

 

[gsx1990]

wkmac,
I think there are some small items in the
results, that some may not like giving the muted
response. I did notice that the average price
per piece of NDA and other expedited shipments
was down quite a bit from last year's comparison.
I wonder if this is due to different shipping
patterns, or if UPS is discounting? None the
less, I think the report was very positive over-
all, and that things are looking bright.

 

[wkmac]

Good point gsx. You mentioned the discounting of NDA which may be true but something I've wondered about going along with that point is that as UPS further tightens the domestic time-n-transit network and companies use operational efficencies of transporting of goods, more companies will rely on 2DA and 3DA or even ground to transport their goods. If this is or does happen UPS I would think will have to lower the price on the NDA product in order to see it used. Also FedEx has been cutting into our ground volume with underpricing so is UPS putting on the heat by cutting into FedEx's bread and butter. Being the more financially sound of the 2 I could see where UPS might take that approach. But that's just me thinking out loud. At the end of the day I have no idea at this point what the boys and girls at Glenlake have in mind.

One other addition to my original post. The 4% growth figure was obtained from CNBC as they put out that figure as it relates to N. American growth. Smart Money quotes a domestic ground growth of 2% so we're still at that number? Come to think of it, there is a positive there. With a stinky economy the last couple of years and the pressure of FedEx ground if I remember correctly we always maintained a positive ground growth and mostly in the 2% range. I know it's not Miss America but at the least it's the Homecoming Queen!