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UPS/Teamster 401k...Prudential to a Dreyfus self managed account...+22.86% for 2012
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<blockquote data-quote="BMWMC" data-source="post: 1100949" data-attributes="member: 37461"><p><strong>Re: UPS/Teamster 401k...Prudential to a Dreyfus self managed account...+22.86% for 20</strong></p><p></p><p>I love schooling people on stocks.</p><p></p><p>Dividends...oh please. What good is a dividend if the stock drops below, far below, your buy point? Can a dividend make up for a loss in equity. No. Dividends are bait for buy and hold bag holders. They never sell because they always feel they are getting paid "free money" to hold on to the stock. </p><p></p><p>PE are another gimmick to sucker bag holders into a "value trap." Wall St traders, mostly computers now, make money on volatility. Staging panic buys and panic sell is how they make there money. Convincing retail investor into believing in stock valuations like PE and PEG stat's allows them to sucker people into believing this pieces of paper, electronic ones at that (have you ever seen or take possession of a stock certificate?), are "valuable".</p><p></p><p>If a stock moves up 3-8% over a 6 month time frame you can sell and pocket a higher yield than a dividend and be in the RELATIVE safety of cash. I've made 5% in a day or two, bugged out, and was ready for my next trade without being tied to the whims of the trading computers. </p><p></p><p>"Yea, but, stocks always go up right? Just look at the market isn't it near all time highs?" Yes, and , NO! Adjusted for inflation stocks are trading 30% below there peak. Measured in GOLD (gold is real money everything else is a derivative or debt) stocks are trading at half of the current index value. </p><p></p><p>The market today is a fiction of inflation. The Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of printed money into the system to push money out of safe assets and into more riskier ones, like stocks. By the end of this year its balance sheet will swell to over 4 trillion dollars representing 26% of the GDP. How can they take that out and not crash the economy? They can't. So reflation of assets prices and reducing debt through inflation is the game. Even if the S&P reaches 2700 by 2015 in NOMINAL terms it would still be worth less than it was in 2001. Even if your stretch your time line out 10-20-30 years the S&P has gained , with dividends, an inflation adjusted average of...wait for it...3% OR LESS depending on who's inflation measurement you use and your holding time. </p><p></p><p>BUY AND HOLD is dead. DEAD DEAD DEAD! Trading for short duration's long or short and buying gold bullion and gold back ETF's (NOT THE GLD) will achieve both gains, reduce exposure to volatility, and protect equity. In today's money printing from the 4 biggest central banks I would recommend you put half your assets in gold and trading the rest for savings and spending dough.</p><p></p><p>Remember how many people where sitting on huge gains over the last 20 years only to have them wiped out in a flash...crash. Trees don't grow to the sky and stocks that go up go down too.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="BMWMC, post: 1100949, member: 37461"] [b]Re: UPS/Teamster 401k...Prudential to a Dreyfus self managed account...+22.86% for 20[/b] I love schooling people on stocks. Dividends...oh please. What good is a dividend if the stock drops below, far below, your buy point? Can a dividend make up for a loss in equity. No. Dividends are bait for buy and hold bag holders. They never sell because they always feel they are getting paid "free money" to hold on to the stock. PE are another gimmick to sucker bag holders into a "value trap." Wall St traders, mostly computers now, make money on volatility. Staging panic buys and panic sell is how they make there money. Convincing retail investor into believing in stock valuations like PE and PEG stat's allows them to sucker people into believing this pieces of paper, electronic ones at that (have you ever seen or take possession of a stock certificate?), are "valuable". If a stock moves up 3-8% over a 6 month time frame you can sell and pocket a higher yield than a dividend and be in the RELATIVE safety of cash. I've made 5% in a day or two, bugged out, and was ready for my next trade without being tied to the whims of the trading computers. "Yea, but, stocks always go up right? Just look at the market isn't it near all time highs?" Yes, and , NO! Adjusted for inflation stocks are trading 30% below there peak. Measured in GOLD (gold is real money everything else is a derivative or debt) stocks are trading at half of the current index value. The market today is a fiction of inflation. The Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of printed money into the system to push money out of safe assets and into more riskier ones, like stocks. By the end of this year its balance sheet will swell to over 4 trillion dollars representing 26% of the GDP. How can they take that out and not crash the economy? They can't. So reflation of assets prices and reducing debt through inflation is the game. Even if the S&P reaches 2700 by 2015 in NOMINAL terms it would still be worth less than it was in 2001. Even if your stretch your time line out 10-20-30 years the S&P has gained , with dividends, an inflation adjusted average of...wait for it...3% OR LESS depending on who's inflation measurement you use and your holding time. BUY AND HOLD is dead. DEAD DEAD DEAD! Trading for short duration's long or short and buying gold bullion and gold back ETF's (NOT THE GLD) will achieve both gains, reduce exposure to volatility, and protect equity. In today's money printing from the 4 biggest central banks I would recommend you put half your assets in gold and trading the rest for savings and spending dough. Remember how many people where sitting on huge gains over the last 20 years only to have them wiped out in a flash...crash. Trees don't grow to the sky and stocks that go up go down too. [/QUOTE]
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