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<blockquote data-quote="tonyexpress" data-source="post: 759992" data-attributes="member: 1940"><p><a href="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100811_hezbollah_radical_rational?utm_source=SWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100812&utm_content=Secimage&elq=d78318e131384d0ea43317bc33ec8639" target="_blank">Hezbollah, Radical but Rational</a></p><p> </p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="color: #000000">We frequently hear concerns from U.S. and Mexican government sources about the Iranian and Hezbollah network in Latin America. They fear that Iran would use Hezbollah to strike targets in the Western Hemisphere and even inside the United States if the United States or Israel were to conduct a military strike against Tehran’s nuclear program. Such concerns are expressed not only by our sources and are relayed not only to us. Nearly every time tensions increase between the United States and Iran, the media report that the Hezbollah threat to the United States is growing. Iran also has a vested interest in <a href="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100203_iranian_proxies_intricate_and_active_web?fn=9416902131" target="_blank">playing up the danger posed by Hezbollah</a> and its other militant proxies as it tries to dissuade the United States and Israel from attacking its nuclear facilities. </span></p> <p style="text-align: left"><span style="color: #000000">A close look at Hezbollah reveals a potent capacity to conduct terrorist attacks. The group is certainly more capable and could be far more dangerous than al Qaeda. An examination also reveals that Hezbollah has a robust presence in Latin America and that it uses its network there to smuggle people into the United States, where it has long maintained a presence. A balanced look at Hezbollah, however, shows that, while the threat it poses is real — and serious — that threat is not new and it is not likely to be exercised. There are a number of factors that have limited Hezbollah’s use of its international network for terrorist purposes in recent years. A decision to return to such activity would not be made lightly, or without carefully calculating the cost.</span></p><p></p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p></p><p><span style="color: #000000"><p style="text-align: left"><span style="color: #000000">In recent years, Hezbollah also has become active in Central America and Mexico, the latter being an ideal place for the Iranians and Hezbollah to operate. Mexico has long been a favorite haunt for foreign intelligence officers from countries hostile to the United States, ranging from Nazi Germany to the Soviet Union, due to its close proximity to the United States and its very poor counterintelligence capability. Mexican government sources have told STRATFOR that the ability of the Mexican government to monitor an organization like Hezbollah is very limited. While Mexico has a domestic intelligence capability, it has historically oriented its efforts toward political opponents of the government and not toward foreign intelligence operatives operating on its soil. </span></p></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="color: #000000"></span></p><p style="text-align: left"><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #000000">Read more: <a href="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100811_hezbollah_radical_rational?utm_source=SWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100812&utm_content=Secimage&elq=d78318e131384d0ea43317bc33ec8639#ixzz0wROrSJ00" target="_blank">Hezbollah, Radical but Rational | STRATFOR</a> </span></p> </p><p></span><p style="text-align: left"></p> <p style="text-align: left"></p><p><span style="color: #000000"></span></p><p><span style="color: #000000"></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="tonyexpress, post: 759992, member: 1940"] [URL="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100811_hezbollah_radical_rational?utm_source=SWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100812&utm_content=Secimage&elq=d78318e131384d0ea43317bc33ec8639"]Hezbollah, Radical but Rational[/URL] [LEFT][COLOR=#000000]We frequently hear concerns from U.S. and Mexican government sources about the Iranian and Hezbollah network in Latin America. They fear that Iran would use Hezbollah to strike targets in the Western Hemisphere and even inside the United States if the United States or Israel were to conduct a military strike against Tehran’s nuclear program. Such concerns are expressed not only by our sources and are relayed not only to us. Nearly every time tensions increase between the United States and Iran, the media report that the Hezbollah threat to the United States is growing. Iran also has a vested interest in [URL="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100203_iranian_proxies_intricate_and_active_web?fn=9416902131"]playing up the danger posed by Hezbollah[/URL] and its other militant proxies as it tries to dissuade the United States and Israel from attacking its nuclear facilities. [/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000]A close look at Hezbollah reveals a potent capacity to conduct terrorist attacks. The group is certainly more capable and could be far more dangerous than al Qaeda. An examination also reveals that Hezbollah has a robust presence in Latin America and that it uses its network there to smuggle people into the United States, where it has long maintained a presence. A balanced look at Hezbollah, however, shows that, while the threat it poses is real — and serious — that threat is not new and it is not likely to be exercised. There are a number of factors that have limited Hezbollah’s use of its international network for terrorist purposes in recent years. A decision to return to such activity would not be made lightly, or without carefully calculating the cost.[/COLOR][/LEFT] [COLOR=#000000][LEFT][COLOR=#000000]In recent years, Hezbollah also has become active in Central America and Mexico, the latter being an ideal place for the Iranians and Hezbollah to operate. Mexico has long been a favorite haunt for foreign intelligence officers from countries hostile to the United States, ranging from Nazi Germany to the Soviet Union, due to its close proximity to the United States and its very poor counterintelligence capability. Mexican government sources have told STRATFOR that the ability of the Mexican government to monitor an organization like Hezbollah is very limited. While Mexico has a domestic intelligence capability, it has historically oriented its efforts toward political opponents of the government and not toward foreign intelligence operatives operating on its soil. [/COLOR] [LEFT][COLOR=#000000]Read more: [URL="http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100811_hezbollah_radical_rational?utm_source=SWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100812&utm_content=Secimage&elq=d78318e131384d0ea43317bc33ec8639#ixzz0wROrSJ00"]Hezbollah, Radical but Rational | STRATFOR[/URL] [/COLOR][/LEFT] [/LEFT][/COLOR][LEFT] [/LEFT] [COLOR=#000000] [/COLOR] [/QUOTE]
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